000
FXUS61 KOKX 190532
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
132 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak wave of low pressure well east of the Delmarva will drift
southeast overnight as high pressure noses down from eastern
New England and the Canadian Maritimes. The high will weaken on
Friday as a cold front approaches from the west. The front will
move through late Friday night into early Saturday, followed by
a dry secondary cold frontal passage late day Saturday or
Saturday evening. High pressure will then follow from Saturday
night into early next week. A weak frontal system will impact
the region mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
The lower stratus has dissipated as low level dry air moves into
from the east. Removed any mention of drizzle and fog through
the overnight. Otherwise, made only minor tweaks for
temperatures and dew points, and winds/gusts.

Somewhat blocky pattern noted, with a series of omega blocks
stretching from the NE Pacific all the way to wrn Europe, but
with enough of a zonal jet across the Pacific and CONUS to the
south to keep things somewhat progressive.

Skies will remain cloudy in the wake of a shortwave as moisture
remains trapped beneath a subsidence inversion associated with
the upper ridge. Low temps tonight per MOS guidance blend should
be in the upper 30s inland and lower 40s along the coast and in
the metro area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
The sfc high will hang in early Fri morning, then slowly weaken
and move east in the late morning and afternoon, with an onshore
SE-S flow developing in the afternoon. A cold front begins to
approach late Fri afternoon and should move across Fri night
with showers, especially inland during the first half of Fri
night (likely PoP), then across Long Island and S CT later Fri
night (likely/cat PoP) as better low level thermal and moisture
advection develops along the coast.

After some lingering AM showers mainly across ern Long Island
and SE CT in the morning, dry conditions expected for Sat, with
some partial sunshine developing. Downslope gusty W-NW flow and
deep mixing to 750 mb late in the afternoon should allow temps
to rise into the 60s throughout, possibly approaching 70 in
urban NE NJ if not a little warmer just ahead of an approaching
dry cold front late in the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will continue to build 0into the region through
the second half of the weekend and remain in control of the
weather through Tuesday with a zonal pattern and weak troughing
pattern aloft.

Cold air advection will lead to cooler temps Saturday night into
Sunday. Saturday night lows will be in the mid 30s to mid 40s,
followed by highs on Sunday in the upper 50s/lower 60s. This
looks to warm up thereafter with highs mostly into the 60s on
Monday and Tuesday. Sunny skies are expected for much of Monday
and Tuesday aided by high pressure.

A 500 mb trough shifts through the Great Lakes on Tuesday, with
an associated weak surface low and cold front as it moves into
NE Canada Wednesday into Thursday. Rain chances increase on
Wednesday as this system moves across. Drier weather returns
for Thursday. Temperatures fall back to a degree or two below
normal behind the cold front on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure builds in from the north and then moves off the
northeast coast Friday afternoon as a cold front approaches to
the west.

Conditions have improved to VFR, with a chance of MVFR ceilings
at times through 08Z.

Showers may move into the western terminals late Friday
afternoon, earlier than forecast. However, conditions likely
remain VFR until 00Z Saturday. Conditions then fall to MVFR and
IFR Friday night.

Light NE winds continue through daybreak, and a few locations
may become light and variable. Winds then shift to the E Friday
morning and then SE late Friday morning into Friday afternoon.


 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

MVFR ceilings are possible at times until around 08Z.
Timing of showers and lower cigs Friday afternoon may be off by
an hour or two.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday night: MVFR with showers in the evening, lowering to IFR
late with showers.

Saturday: MVFR or lower with showers ending in the early
morning, becoming VFR. W-WNW winds G15-25 kt possible late.

Sunday: VFR. W winds G15-20 kt possible near the coast in the
afternoon/evening.

Monday and Tuesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Winds, gusts, and ocean seas were all a little lower than
forecast and were updated to reflect current conditions. SCA
seas remain on the ocean waters into Friday. Ocean seas may
linger over 5 ft into Fri night or early Sat morning.

High pressure should then keep conditions at sub-advisory
levels through at least Tue night. Conditions may build back to
SCA levels on Wed with the next low pressure and associated cold
front to approach.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected attm.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BG/BR
NEAR TERM...BG/BR/MET
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...BR
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BG/BR/MET
HYDROLOGY...BG/BR

NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion