808
FXUS61 KOKX 240719
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
319 AM EDT Sun May 24 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The high risk of rip currents has been extended into Memorial
Day.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Wet, cool and breezy conditions continue today, with gradual
improvements possible Memorial Day afternoon.
2) There is a high risk of rip currents today and Memorial Day,
with a High Surf Advisory in effect today.
3) Warmer and mainly dry conditions expected Tuesday through
the end of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
High pressure starts to retreat today to the northeast as a
warm front gradually approaches from the south. This slow moving
front with multiple waves of low pressure will continue to
impact the area through Monday.
Light rain continues today. There may be a brief period of more
moderate rain this morning with a LLJ strengthening, but much of the
day will be a steady light rain. By the evening the activity likely
becomes more scattered and showery in nature, especially for NYC and
north and west. Additional accumulations today will likely be below
an inch. Some urban and poor drainage flooding can still not be
completely ruled out, mainly this morning. Winds will also pick up
this morning with the strengthening LLJ, peaking into the late
morning. Winds have underperformed so far, but along the coastal
areas we could still see sustained easterly winds at 15 to 25
mph with gusts up to 35 mph. This has been nudged down a bit
from previous forecasts due to observations and less impressive
mixing seen in forecast soundings. The LLJ passes to the east
this afternoon and evening and then the pressure gradient
slackens significantly tonight into Monday. For temperatures
today, continued to go lower than the NBM given a cool easterly
flow and plenty of rain/cloud cover. Temperatures likely top out
in the 50s, about 15 degrees cooler than normal for this time
of year.
There is now a bit more confidence in the forecast for Memorial Day
as guidance has started to show better agreement. The warm
front moves north of the area sometime late tonight into Monday
morning. A wave of low pressure then drags a cold front through
the area later Monday morning with a shortwave passing through
aloft. Very limited instability is available, resulting in this
activity likely being more convective in nature as shown in
latest CAMs. Latest NAM and GFS show pwats pooling ahead of
this cold front up to just under 2 inches. This is well above
the max moving average for the OKX observed sounding
climatology. This will result in some higher rainfall rates for
the area with isolated heavy downpours. The good thing is that
the speed of the showers will be fairly quick. Some areas will
likely see a quick 0.50 inches in an hour with the potential
for an isolated 1 inch per hour occurrence. Dry conditions are
then expected for the afternoon hours with temperatures warming
into the 70s.
.KEY MESSAGE 2...
A high risk of rip currents continues through Memorial Day due
to a persistent easterly flow and building swell. While Memorial
Day afternoon will dry out and warm up, the lingering swell will
continue to bring dangerous rip currents.
The building swell looks to peak today around 9 to 10 ft at 9
seconds out of the E/SE. This will bring breaking waves between
4 and 9 ft resulting in the High Surf Advisory. Breaking waves
will be lower for Memorial Day, but there is potential for the
Advisory to be extended, mainly for Suffolk County beaches.
.KEY MESSAGE 3...
Warmer and mainly dry conditions are becoming increasingly
Tuesday through the end of the week. Temperatures on Tuesday
will likely be above normal in the mid to upper 70s, with some
low 80s for the usual warmer spots. A cold front approaches on
Wednesday. Ahead of the front, temperatures may rise into the
mid 80s. The front should pass through dry, but bring a return
to seasonably warm conditions for the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure slowly slides east of the Canadian Maritimes thru
tonight, while a warm front slowly approaches from the south.
This system has been fighting low-level dry air and subsidence,
with a slow drop in conditions to MVFR and IFR this morning in
steady -RA. IFR conds likely develop by morning push, and
continue through the evening push. Rain tapers to isolated
showers and drizzle from W to E later this afternoon into
evening. LIFR conds likely developing tonight with light winds
and abundant moisture under strong low-level inversion.
E winds are still likely to strengthen to 15-20g25-30kt for the
coastal terminals for this AM push, although these winds may be
more occasional than frequent. Isolated gusts to 35 kt possible
for coastal terminals. Winds and gusts gradually subside aft
18Z, becoming E/NE 5 to 10 kt for eve push. Light E to vrb winds
overnight.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
CIGS and VSBY may be slower to lower than forecast.
Winds and wind gusts may be more occasional through this
morning.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Late Tonight: IFR/LIFR with light ENE/VRB winds.
Monday: Showers likely in the morning, with low and sparse TSRA
potential. IFR/LIFR, gradually improving to MVFR/VFR in aft/eve.
Tuesday - Thursday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Easterly winds will increase this morning peaking around 20 to
25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Winds drop off significantly
tonight into Monday. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all
waters through today, and then continuing on the ocean waters
tonight for lingering elevated seas. For the ocean waters from
Jones Beach Inlet to Montauk and out 20 NM the Advisory goes
through Monday as well. There is potential for a brief period of
gale force gusts for the 20 to 60 NM waters.
Thereafter, winds and waves are expected to remain below Small
Craft Advisory criteria.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through Monday evening for NYZ075-080-
081-178-179.
High Surf Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 9 PM EDT this
evening for NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ350-353.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ355.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JT
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JT
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