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FXUS61 KOKX 221511
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1111 AM EDT Fri Oct 22 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front moves through late today. Weak high pressure
builds in behind the departing front and will remain in place
through the weekend. Low pressure likely impacts the region
Sunday night into Wednesday. Weak high pressure briefly returns
before another frontal system impacts the area late Wednesday
night and Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Deep closed low will sit south of Hudsons Bay, with region on
eastern edge of associated upper level troughing. At the
surface, initial cold front has pushed east of the region this
morning, with a weak secondary cold front pushing through this
evening. Troughing aloft, cold frontal approach, and moistening
under 800 hPA inversion, will allow for upstream broken strato-
cu deck to sink SE across the region this afternoon/evening.

The cold front will stall off the coast tonight, with a wave/s
of low pressure developing along the front late tonight into Sat
morning, ahead of shortwave approach. Any precipitation
associated with these low/s will remaining well offshore and
continue to slide east on Sat.

W/NW winds and weak caa, will allow temps to rise into the
upper 60s to lower 70s today, several degrees above seasonable.
Dew points will fall into the 40s.

Tonight, lows fall into the 40s and 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
There may be a few showers, mainly north of NYC, possible
Saturday morning as an upper level trough with shortwave lift
passes near the region. Beyond that, mainly dry conditions can
be expected a weak high pressure builds over the area. A warm
front approaches late Sunday which may increase to the SW may
bring increasing cloudiness by day`s end.

Highs both Saturday and Sunday will be in the 50s and 60s. Lows
Saturday night fall into the 40s to near 50, with a few upper
30s in the far outlying areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Near zonal flow develops Sunday and Sunday night as closed low
pressure across eastern Canada weakens, as a weak shortwave
moves from the mid Mississippi Valley to the midwest. Guidance
is fairly consistent with this wave and the weak surface low
that develops with the shortwave. There is some uncertainty as
to where a warm frontal boundary will set up ahead of the low,
and whether or not this front will move north of the region as
high pressure to the north may keep the front south of the
region. Depending where the warm front sets up the area may
become warm sectored with little to no precipitation for a time
during Monday.

Timing differences develop as the surface wave reaches the coast
Monday night, with the GFS faster and deeper with the low.
Overall, low pressure will be impacting the area Sunday night into
Wednesday. However, with still some uncertainty have kept the
probabilities at chance.

The flow will be progressive midweek, as weak ridging builds briefly
between the departing low and another system moving into the
midsection of the country. Additional chances of precipitation will
be possible late next week.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A weakening cold front was moving east of the NYC metro
terminals early this morning. Another cold front moves through
mid to late afternoon into early this evening. High pressure
then builds toward the area tonight.

VFR.

Westerly winds around 10 kt this morning will become NW, less
than 10 kt, with a second cold frontal passage mid to late
afternoon. Winds remain NW to N tonight.


 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Winds may back more toward the southwest at KJFK during the
afternoon. No unscheduled amendments expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.Saturday-Sunday...VFR.
.Sunday Night-Tuesday...MVFR or lower possible at times. Chance of
showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCA seas between 5 and 7 ft in southerly swell, will gradually
subside through the late afternoon into evening from w to e.
Occasional gusts to 25 kt this morning will subside through the
afternoon. Weak high pressure will keep conditions below
advisory-level conditions through the weekend.

With the approach of a frontal system Sunday night and low pressure
approaching and then passing to the south of the waters Monday
through Wednesday as prolonged period of marginal small craft
conditions is likely on the ocean waters Sunday night through
Wednesday night. New York Harbor, and the Long Island south shore
bays may see a period of marginal small craft wind gusts Sunday
night into Monday. The remainder of the forecast waters are expected
to remain below SCA levels.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected at this time.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ355.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/MET
NEAR TERM...BC/NV
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BC/MET
HYDROLOGY...BC/MET

NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion