697
FXUS61 KOKX 030251
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1051 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will approach tonight and lift through Thursday
morning. A slow moving cold front will then drop into the area
Thursday night into Friday. Unsettled conditions are likely this
weekend with the frontal boundary remaining nearby. The front
will move away on Monday, with high pressure slowly returning
into Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Forecast generally on track with only minor adjustments to
account for the latest observations, mainly for temperature and
dew points. Some showers moving through associated with
overrunning moisture out ahead of the approaching warm front
from the south. Much of the more widespread showers remain north
of the forecast area.
As high pressure moves off to the east, a warm front will
approach from the south tonight. An area of showers/tstms over
central PA will be weakening as it moves east, and some
isolated activity from this may make it into areas from NYC
metro north/west this evening. Also expect warm advection
showers to break out over the area late tonight as the warm
front gets closer. Evening low temps in the upper 30s/lower 40s
will rise slowly overnight, with temps 45-50 by daybreak.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Area of fog and some drizzle likely to develop in the morning
especially from NYC east as the warm front lifts through. CAM`s
meanwhile show potential for additional showers and isolated
tstms to move across from the west in the morning.
Any fog should become patchy in nature by afternoon, with temps
warming up to the lower/mid 60s across Long Island, and upper
60s/lower 70s from NYC west. S winds will become gusty after
warm fropa, with gusts up to 25-30 mph in the NYC metro area
and along the coast, and mostly 15-20 mph inland. Another
chance for showers possible ahead of the slow moving cold front
across parts of NE NJ. Air mass does not look all that unstable,
with SBCAPE no more than 200-500 J/kg in this area, so have
only mentioned slight chance thunder. This instability then
skirts NYC and Long Island in the evening, so once again have
only mentioned slight chance thunder for those areas. Do not
expect any svr potential with this activity.
Cold front should enter the area from late evening into the
overnight. As it does so, an upper jet streak well to the
north and mid level vort energy riding top a broad upper ridge
axis over the Southeast should bring another chance of showers
after midnight. Low temps will be mostly in the lower 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Points:
* Unsettled conditions are expected this weekend with a frontal
boundary in the vicinity.
* Showers are most likely on Saturday and then again late Sunday
into Sunday night.
* Improving conditions are likely Monday with high pressure slowly
building towards the area on Tuesday.
* Seasonably cool temperatures Saturday should trend warmer on
Sunday with some 70s possible for NE NJ, NYC metro and Lower
Hudson Valley. Temperatures then trend cooler early next week.
Any showers remaining in the area Friday morning will come to an end
by afternoon as a cold front pushes south and high pressure builds
into the Great Lakes and Northeast. This should keep much of Friday
dry, but the high pressure quickly moves through, departing the area
by Friday night and into Saturday morning. A shortwave develops an
area of low pressure over the Ohio Valley and pushes into the
Northeast Saturday. This will bring a warm front pushing north
through the area and with it, the potential for showers Saturday
morning and through the day. The strongest WAA will be north of the
area with a possibility of the coastline seeing more showery
activity as opposed to a steady rain.
The warm front continues to push north of the area which may result
in a lull in rain for Saturday night, though a saturated BL may
result in continued drizzle and fog for much of the region Saturday
night into Sunday morning. The area is expected to be in the warm
sector of the initial low to the north with a secondary low pressure
system developing upstream along the cold front. This intensifying
low pressure system will advect additional moisture and provide
ample forcing for the area by Sunday night as the front approaches
from the west. Widespread rain, locally moderate to heavy, is
possible with the frontal passage. While there doesn`t appear to be
significant amounts of instability, there does seem to be enough
elevated CAPE to support at least a slight chance of thunder for the
time being, though this is highly dependent on the amount of cloud
cover and heating during the day on Sunday if the warm front is able
to push further north than anticipated.
The cold front pushes through Sunday night and into Monday morning.
Rain should come to an end by Monday morning, though some additional
showers may be possible Monday and Tuesday as the upper level trough
swings overhead providing for some additional lift. High pressure
then builds back in for the middle of next week.
Temperatures on Friday will be above average with highs in the low
to middle 60s. The cold front moves through and cools down the area
for Saturday back into the low 50s. The warm front moves north for
Sunday allowing temperatures to rise into the 60s to possibly low
70s for portions of NJ and NYC, though this particular day`s highs
will depend on the proximity of the warm front and any cloud cover.
Otherwise, a generally cooling trend is expected through the middle
of next week with highs Monday into the upper 50s and cooling down
to the upper 40s to low 50s by Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure retreats east into the Atlantic tonight, while a
warm front approaches from the south. The warm front passes
trough late tonight into Thursday morning.
Some MVFR ceilings have made their way into the terminals a few
hours ahead of the forecast. There may be some improvement back
to VFR for those that are MVFR at times, but conditions are
expected to continue to deteriorate overnight to IFR/LIFR in
low clouds, fog, and light rain or drizzle. There will also be a
chance of showers tonight into Thursday. Improvement on
Thursday in the warm sector will be mainly confined to the NYC
and Lower Hudson Valley terminals Thursday afternoon. The
eastern terminals will likely remain IFR/LIFR through the day.
There is a great deal of uncertainty with KJFK in regards to any
improvement making its way to the terminal, but current
guidance supports a return to VFR by 01Z Friday, slightly
earlier for the other city terminals.
SE winds 10-15kt G20kt this evening will gradually shift
overnight, becoming S/SW with the passage of the warm front
Thursday morning. Gusts overnight will be more persistent along
the coast and may for a time drop off or be less frequent. Gusts
likely return in the warm sector Thursday afternoon.
LLWS expected late tonight and Thursday morning with S-SW winds
45-50 kt at 2kft.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Wind gusts late afternoon/early evening may be occasional.
Amendments for flight category changes likely for tonight into
Thursday morning.
Low confidence visibility forecast Thursday morning. KJFK could
remain IFR/LIFR through Thursday afternoon.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Thursday Night: Eastern terminals remain LIFR/IFR into Thursday
evening before improving to VFR with a cold frontal passage.
The NYC and Lower Hudson Valley terminals will likely see some
improvement to MVFR in the afternoon and VFR in the evening.
S/SW gusts 20-30 kt, strongest along the coast.
Friday: Chance of MVFR in showers, especially in the morning
along the coast.
Saturday: MVFR to IFR with showers likely. E wind gusts 15-20kt.
Sunday: IFR in the morning, becoming MVFR. A chance of showers.
SW gusts 15-20 kt possible.
Monday: MVFR with a chance of showers, mainly in the morning.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
E flow should veer SE tonight and increase to 15-20 kt with some
gusts up to 25 kt, bringing marginal SCA cond to all ocean
waters, with seas building to 5-6 ft.
As a warm front lifts through late tonight into Thu morning,
expect sustained S winds 20-25 kt with gusts 25-30 kt to
develop, mainly on the ocean waters and the Long Island South
Shore Bays, where SCA has been issued for daytime Thu. Ocean
seas during this time should build to 5-8 ft. The other waters
may see occasional gusts up to 25 kt, and it is possible that an
SCA may be needed, especially for the central/ern Sound and the
eastern bays.
There is a chance for dense fog on the waters Thu especially in
the morning with the warm frontal passage.
SCA cond likely to continue on the ocean Thu night, with SW flow
still gusting to 25-30 kt especially out east, and seas 5-8 ft.
Sub-SCA conditions are likely Friday afternoon through Sunday
morning. By Sunday afternoon, an approaching frontal system
will allow ocean seas to build above 5 ft, with SCA likely.
Sheltered waters should remain below SCA. SCA conditions on the
ocean likely continue through at least Monday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected attm.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/MW
NEAR TERM...BG/JP/MW
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...BG/MW
HYDROLOGY...BG/MW
NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion
