000
FXUS61 KOKX 050533
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1233 AM EST Sun Feb 5 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure continues to move into the western
Atlantic Ocean tonight, and farther east Sunday. A low pressure
system approaches the region from the south for Sunday night.
High pressure returns on Monday and lasts through Wednesday with
only a weak cold front passing through during Tuesday night. A
couple of storm systems then impact the region late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Warm advection continues to increase across the region with
temperatures along the coast quickly rising into the mid and
upper 20s, and inland temperatures rising more slowly until warm
advection increases later tonight. Dew points were also
increasing quickly. Low temperatures for the night have occurred
this evening as temperatures will be rising through the
overnight.

A ridge of high pressure moves out into the Atlantic tonight
with a south to southwest return flow continuing through the
overnight. SW winds will become gusty as the pressure gradient
tightens between the strong high moving offshore and parent low
pressure moving into the Great Lakes. Additionally, ridging
aloft will lead to subsidence and decreasing clouds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
High pressure continues to move farther out into the Atlantic
Sunday into Sunday night. Meanwhile, a parent low pressure area
develops and moves into the Great Lakes Sunday and from there
weakens as it approaches the local region Sunday night.

Gusty SW winds will continue Sunday. Warm air advection continues
and temperatures are forecast to rebound well into the 40s for
highs. The winds then decrease Sunday night with a weakening of the
pressure gradient.

There will be a developing mid level shortwave Sunday night that
approaches the area with its axis just west of the area by early
Monday morning.

The models indicate enough forcing and moisture convergence for a
chance of rain showers along the coast Sunday night. With weakening
low pressure system overall forcing is expected to be weak, so left
as chance POPs. With relatively warmer air along the coast,
temperatures forecast to be upper 30s to mid 40s, making for the
precipitation to be in form of rain showers.

Lows Sunday night forecast overall to be near 30 across interior to
mid 30s to near 40 along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
500mb trough shifts through the region on Monday, but high
pressure at the surface will slowly build in. The ridge axis of
this system reaches here late Monday night into Tuesday morning,
then shifts to our east Tuesday afternoon. Dry both days with
highs generally in the 40s. A weakening cold front passes
through Tuesday night with low chances of rain showers, then
deep layered ridging returns for Wednesday and Wednesday night
with dry weather and above-normal temperatures.

The forecast becomes more uncertain Thursday through Saturday with
differences in how global models and their ensemble means handle the
next two storm systems that could impact the region. Stuck fairly
close to NBM PoPs which have some form of chance PoPs all 3 days
because of the uncertainty, but at least the deterministic models
lean toward the potential of Friday being dry during the daytime
hours. For now, it appears that a weak cold front or trough shifts
through during Thursday night. This would be followed by a
strengthening low pressure system approaching from the SW and
bringing us increasing chances of precipitation Friday night into
Saturday. Thermal profiles Thursday through Saturday support rain.
If a closed 500mb low could form nearby like some guidance suggests,
this would enhance chances that the surface low is both stronger and
slows down, helping wrap in some colder air on the backside of the
storm for some snow mixing in during Saturday night. High
temperatures mostly 50-55 for Thursday and Friday, then cooling down
to 40-45 on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Arctic high pressure along the northeast to mid Atlantic coast will
slide east overnight as low pressure approaches from the northwest.
The high moves farther east Sunday as the low tracks to the north of
the area. Meanwhile, another low will be approaching from the south
Sunday night.

VFR through the TAF period.

Winds S to SW generally 10 kt or less, with higher winds along
the coast, 10-15 kt. Along the coast, occasional gusts to around
20 kt will be possible overnight. More confident in gusts at
the coastal terminals Sunday morning into the afternoon with
gusts 20-25 kt. Gusts end 21-22Z Sunday, with SW winds
diminishing.


 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Occasional gusts to near 20 kt are possible at KLGA overnight.

Higher confidence in gusts for Sunday morning into the afternoon,
especially at KLGA, with SW gusts around 20kt. Gusts may be more
occasional at KEWR and KTEB and have not included in the TAFs at
this time.


OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Late Sunday night...VFR. Low chance MVFR at KGON with light rain
showers.

Monday...VFR. NW wind gusts 15-20 kt. Gusts subside at night.

Tuesday...VFR. S-SW gusts 15-20 kt in the afternoon.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR. W-NW gusts 15-20 kt. Gusts subside at night.

Thursday...Chance of MVFR in rain showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and gusts are increasing on the waters, and nearing SCA on
the ocean, as the pressure gradient increases with high pressure
moving slowly east of the forecast waters overnight. Ocean seas
will build to SCA levels. A SCA remains in effect for all
waters until midnight Sunday night. Then, pressure gradient
decreases and winds as well as ocean seas will gradually
decrease. The ocean SCA stays up through all of Sunday night.

There could be gale force wind gusts from time to time on the
ocean but only expected to be occasional so held off on gale
headlines, but will still mention in the HWO.

SCA conds continue on the ocean through Monday and into Monday
night. Winds and seas will then remain below advisory levels
through much of Tuesday. SCA conds then likely Tuesday night on
most, if not all waters as SW winds increase and seas build.
Westerly winds on Wednesday, but SCA conds remain on the ocean
through early evening. A return to SCA conds then arrives
Thursday afternoon with a tightening pressure gradient ahead of
an approaching cold front or trough.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through late next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for ANZ331-332-
     335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Monday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JC/JM/MET
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JC/JM/MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/JM

NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion