000
FXUS61 KOKX 162014
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
414 PM EDT Thu Sep 16 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A nearly stationary front south of Long Island gradually
dissipates tonight into Friday. Otherwise, high pressure
remains to the north and high weakens Friday. Low pressure well
south of Long Island moves northeast within the Western
Atlantic Friday night. The low passes well southeast of Long
Island on Saturday, eventually moving southeast of the Canadian
Maritimes on Sunday. A weakening cold front will move across the
region Saturday into Saturday night with strong high pressure
building in for Sunday through early next week. The high
pressure area will start moving more offshore Tuesday into
Wednesday of next week. A frontal system approaches midweek,
moving near the region towards Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
The frontal boundary moved a little farther to the south
Thursday afternoon, and across the region there is little
surface based or mixed layer CAPE, and little instability. There
as some weak energy forecast to move across the region tonight,
so will maintain a slight chance of precipitation. And will
continue with the coverage wording for showers.

The low off the southeast coast tracks slowly northward tonight,
reaching to off the outer banks of North Carolina by Friday
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The frontal boundary south of the region dissipates during
Friday. However, weak shortwave energy will be moving into the
region, and surface daytime instability increases. So will keep
slight chance probabilities most of the day, and chance inland
in the afternoon., with scattered to isolated convection.

Models remain consistent with the low off the North Carolina
coast Friday morning, tracking to the northeast later Friday
and deepening late Friday into Friday night. The low still
passes southeast of the 40N/70W benchmark late Friday night and
continues to track northeast farther away from the region for
the upcoming weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mid level flow transitions from zonal Saturday to NW Saturday
night through Sunday. A mid level trough moves across Saturday
night with strong ridging thereafter through the remainder of
the weekend and through early next week.

At the surface, a weak cold front moves across Saturday night.
Ahead of it, some positive vorticity advection aloft and surface
instability will lead to a few showers and thunderstorms,
mainly north and west of NYC where there will be more
instability with relatively cooler temperatures aloft. Moisture
will be quite a limiting factor so POPs for showers and
thunderstorms are just low end chance to slight chance for
Saturday afternoon into early evening. Saturday will be
relatively the warmest day of the long term with higher 850mb
temperatures and downslope mixing with northerly flow, which
will make for relatively warmer temperatures towards the
coastline. Highs are forecast to be mainly in the low to mid
80s.

The other surface feature to take notice of is a low offshore
that has potential for tropical cyclone development according to
the National Hurricane Center. The models indicate the center
of the low will be southeast of the 40N/70W benchmark Saturday
morning. Then the low will be moving northeast farther out into
the Atlantic and eventually southeast of the Canadian Maritimes
on Sunday with westerly steering flow aloft.

Dry weather prevails for the rest of the weekend and into next
week with strong high pressure taking control as it builds in
from the north. Northerly surface flow will make for a
relatively cooler temperatures latter half of the weekend and
into start of next week. Highs are mainly in the 70s for much of
the region Sunday and Monday. Some rebound in temperatures is
expected for Tuesday with more of a upper 70s to lower 80s range
as the area gets more on the backside of the ridge with more
southerly flow.

Towards midweek, next rain shower chances are in the forecast
as a frontal system approaches from the west.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A stationary front remains south of Long Island thru Fri.

Sct shwrs and isold tstms possible thru 00Z, but coverage and
probability were to low to pinpoint in the TAF. Because of this,
VCSH has been included til 00-01Z. There are additional chances
for shwrs and tstms tngt, but again the probability was too low
to include in the TAFs. An isold shwr/tstm cannot be ruled out
for Fri.

Cigs are expected to fall to MVFR into this eve and then IFR
tngt. Conditions may remain IFR most of Fri, with improvement
possible mainly aft 18Z. There could be some vis reductions tngt
in br. 5sm vis has been included across wrn terminals attm.

Winds will generally be around 060-080 thru the TAF period.

 ...Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments possible for the timing of falling cigs this eve.
Amendments will be required if shwrs and tstms are expected to
become widespread this aftn and/or eve.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.Rest of Friday...Improvement to MVFR or VFR, then potential for IFR
overnight.
.Sat...Mainly VFR. A cold front could produce isold-sct shwrs.
Winds shift to the N by late in the day.
.Sun...VFR with NW flow.
.Mon-Tue...MVFR possible at times.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas remain below SCA levels tonight. As the pressure
gradient increases late tonight into Friday, as a system off
the southeast coast tracks north, ocean seas will build to 5
feet early Friday morning. Then with the low moving northeast
Friday night ocean seas will continue to build, and ocean gusts
will be near 25 kt, especially east of Moriches Inlet. A SCA
has been issued for the ocean waters for Friday through
Saturday.

SCA conditions are forecast to linger Saturday night on the
ocean east of Fire Island Inlet which could continue into Sunday
morning as well. Otherwise, expecting sub-SCA conditions
eventually for all waters Sunday and through early next week as
high pressure and a weak pressure gradient encompasses the
waters.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic issues expected.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There will be a moderate risk of rip currents today for the ocean
beaches with 2 to 3 ft ocean seas with residual southerly swell and
E-SE winds of near 10 kt. For Friday, ocean seas will be building to
5 to 6 ft with more of an easterly swell and winds will be E-NE near
10-15 kt, making for a high risk of rip currents for the ocean
beaches.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Friday to 6 PM EDT Saturday for
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/19
NEAR TERM...19
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...JM/19
HYDROLOGY...JM/19
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JM

NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion