175
FXUS61 KOKX 040009
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
809 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will move across and eventually north of the
region into this evening. A cold front then slowly moves
through tonight into Friday. The frontal boundary stalls, then
returns north as a warm front and pushes through Saturday into
Saturday night. The trailing cold front pushes through Sunday,
followed by weak low pressure tracking nearby along the boundary
on Monday. High pressure builds for mid week before pushing
offshore by late Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Warm front expected to move farther north and eventually north
of the entire area tonight. A weakening cold front moves in
late tonight. This will bring a higher chance and coverage of
showers along with a few thunderstorms.
Shower activity minimal thus far late this afternoon. Area
starting to get more westerly component to winds. Warmer for
western locations compared to eastern locations.
Fog has begun development across eastern sections of the region,
becoming dense in some locations. SPS out for patchy dense fog
into early this evening for Southeast CT and Suffolk County Long
Island.
For tonight, expecting SW winds to decrease with a cold front
moving in. This cold front is weakening as it moves in as parent
low pressure fills in across Southeast Canada.
Expecting the fog to linger around especially across Southern CT
and Long Island. In addition, while the frontal forcing is weak,
mid level positive vorticity advection with smaller embedded
shortwave moves in. Upper level jet streak also moves north of
the area with its right rear quad getting close to the region
late tonight. This will enhance lift and with some ambient low
level instability, a few thunderstorms will be possible.
The convective coverage this evening is isolated to scattered at
most with convection being mostly south of Long Island where
greater instability will be located. The chances for showers
expand across the entire region late tonight, becoming likely,
with a slight chance of thunderstorms as well. Lows will not
have a wide range, just upper 40s to mid 50s.
Some drier air behind the cold front will allow for fog to
become less expansive by early Friday. The rain increasing will
also help mix out the low levels, allowing for fog to breakup.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
With slight ridging aloft and upper jet staying north of the
area, the weak cold front moving through will slow down south of
the region. Not much steering flow.
Rain showers chances decrease Friday morning with drier air
coming in on a NW flow. With weakening pressure gradient, do not
expect much in the way of gusty winds. Some gusts near 15 to 20
mph along coast. High temperatures a blend of MAV and MET MOS,
mainly in the low to mid 60s. Clouds overcast to start with some
more breaks of sun for afternoon.
Friday night, increasing clouds from west to east as frontal
boundary to the south moves north as a warm front. Might even
have some light rain developing with isentropic lift late
heading into early Saturday morning. However, expecting much of
the night to be dry.
Some radiational cooling with light winds Friday evening before
clouds increase, so have lows ranging from upper 30s to upper
40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An Atlantic seaboard and Western Atlantic ridge will give way to a
longwave trough during the period. Weak shortwave energy along with
a warm front, then a cold front along with a wave of low pressure
should bring rounds of unsettled weather for much of the weekend. As
the longwave trough sets up in the east, shortwave energy may impact
the area on Monday, and maybe towards the tail end of the period
late Thursday, at least according to the GFS and the EC-AIFS. Other
NWP guidance suggests it remains dry through the day Thursday.
A warm front should lift northeast and through the region to begin
the weekend. The timing of the warm front passing through remains in
question, but model consensus is suggestive that the warm front
lifts through Saturday night. Ahead of the warm front look for light
rain, with perhaps a few moderate bouts during the day. As the warm
front presses in look for a higher probability of fog across the
region with some possible reduced visibilities into the day and
early evening. The area should get into the warm sector, albeit
briefly late Saturday night and into Sunday morning with a warmer
WSW flow regime. The cold front will then push through sometime
Sunday afternoon / early evening. The winds will turn to the W, then
NW for Sunday night. The question is how far south does the cold
frontal boundary get late Sunday and Sunday night. NWP consensus has
the front remaining close enough to the region that the next impulse
moves up along the boundary in response to shortwave energy, and
higher PoPs coming back in for at least late in the day Sunday and
Sunday night. During Monday the boundary is progged to get just off
the coast, with PoPs for now confined to mainly eastern portions of
the area.
With the upper level trough pivoting through and some instability
and a cold pool aloft have kept low end chance minimal PoPs for
Monday night into Tuesday. A rather chilly Canadian based cP air
mass will build for the mid week. Temperatures are expected to get
below normal Tuesday night into Wednesday. Wind chill readings by
late Tuesday night / early Wednesday morning may get down into 20s
region wide with actual air temperatures near or below freezing
across the entire area. Temperatures during the day Wednesday will
struggle to get out of the 40s despite April sun. Another chilly
wake up is anticipated for Thursday with the high settling over the
area and a good radiational cooling set up anticipated. The high
should then start to get further east on Thursday with a return flow
setting up at the tail end of the period.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front will move across late tonight with high pressure
building in for Friday.
All terminals have improved to VFR except for KGON, where
conditions remain LIFR. However, even here, conditions are
expected to improve over the next few hours. Showers move in
tonight in association with the cold front after 04Z. With
conditions considerably improved and guidance suggesting
minimal impact with the showers in regards to flight categories,
have kept VFR in the forecast. However, brief MVFR conditions
with the showers overnight is still possible, mainly for clouds.
SW winds this evening 10 kt or less shift to the NW 5-10 kt
with cold fropa late tonight and increase to either side of 10
kt Fri morning. Occasional gusts possible early afternoon on
Friday to 20 kt, but did not look frequent enough to include in
TAFs.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Generally a VFR forecast, but brief MVFR possible with showers
that move through after 04Z. Therefore, amendments are
possible, especially after 04Z.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Friday Night: VFR.
Saturday: Showers likely. MVFR to IFR expected in the afternoon and
at night. SE winds G15-20kt.
Sunday: Chance of showers. Any IFR cond early should become MVFR.
SW winds G15-20kt.
Monday: Chance of showers with MVFR/IFR cond possible.
Tuesday: VFR. WNW winds G20-25kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
The warm front lifts north of the waters into this evening.
Marine dense fog for waters surrounding Suffolk County NY,
could potentially get into western waters tonight as well. Small
craft advisories remain and have been extended in time for the
ocean zones. Winds forecast to lessen this evening, keeping SCA
conditions just mainly on the ocean after 8PM. The SCA
conditions stay on the ocean through all of tonight due to
mainly ocean seas.
Winds trend down eventually below SCA levels tonight and remain
below SCA levels Friday through Friday night. Ocean SCA seas
still expected into Friday, with Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island
Inlet ending at 10AM, Fire Island Inlet to Moriches Inlet ending
at 2PM and Moriches Inlet to Montauk Point ending at 4PM. The
southerly wave component on the ocean has trended longer with
duration of SCA seas with both NWPS and Wavewatch, prompting the
further increase in SCAs. All waters below SCA levels Friday
night.
Sub advisory conditions should prevail for the most part through
Saturday night. On Sunday a S to SW flow strengthens ahead of a cold
front with small craft conditions prevailing on the ocean, with
marginal small craft conditions possible on the ocean and only
for the eastern and south shore bays of LI. Elevated seas are
likely to continue much of the ocean through at least Monday
night. Behind a cold front Tuesday look for small craft
conditions to continue on the ocean, and to develop on the non-
ocean waters with a WNW wind increasing. A period of gales
cannot be ruled out later Tuesday and Tuesday night.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Minor flooding possible late tonight into early Friday for
western coastal sections around NYC Metro with any heavy
showers and thunderstorms. Otherwise, no hydrological impacts
are anticipated through the period.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ331-332-340-
345-350-353.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Friday for ANZ350.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Friday for ANZ353.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Friday for ANZ355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JE/JM
HYDROLOGY...JE/JM
NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion
