545
FXUS61 KOKX 030325
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1125 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in control through early next week.
A cold front will approach Tuesday night into Wednesday, then
move across from late Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday.
Strong high pressure will follow from the west beginning later
Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An upper level ridge remains across the Northeast, with surface
high pressure becoming centered over the area tonight.
Another cool night is expected with decent radiational cooling
conditions. Did not go as low as MOS due to some high clouds
streaming overhead. Temperatures across the interior and in the
Long Island Pine Barrens should be able to get down to the
lower 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure shifts offshore to our southeast on Friday but
will remain in control through the weekend. Moisture increases
a bit with somewhat of a return flow, bringing dewpoints back
up to the 50s and low 60s. High temperatures trend up through
the weekend with a W/SW flow, increasing heights and sunny
skies. Highs each day will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s. These
values are short of any records by a few degrees, but well
above normal for early October.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Points:
* High pressure will remain in place along the coast through
daytime Tue with dry conditions.
* The high will slide east Tue night as a cold front approaches
from the west. Showers are likely from Tue night into early
Thu with the frontal approach/passage, especially daytime Wed
into Wed evening.
* Temps will be quite warm Mon/Tue, with highs 10-15 degrees
above normal but a few degrees below record highs. With
clouds and precip around and the area still in the warm sector
most of the day on Tue, temps on Wed should still range 5-10
degrees above normal. With the passage of the front, temps on
Thu should be a couple of degrees below normal.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure settles directly over the region through the TAF
period.
VFR conditions. Winds will be light and variable overnight at most
terminals, or up to 5 kt prevailing from the S, then SW for the city
terminals. SW winds increase through Friday morning and prevail at
around 10kt by afternoon, with a slightly more southerly component
later in the day. Winds become more WSW into Friday evening.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Friday night-Tuesday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
SCA extended until 10Z for the ocean W of Moriches Inlet with
seas still 5-6 ft there. Seas are a little lower to the east, so
the 2 AM expiration there still looks on track.
Otherwise, conditions should remain below advisory criteria
through Tue night as high pressure remains in control.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
QPF from Tue night into Thu morning could be close to an inch.
No accompanying hydrologic issues expected attm.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for ANZ350.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/JT
NEAR TERM...BG/JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...BG/JT
HYDROLOGY...BG/JT
NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion
