000
FXUS61 KOKX 252048
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
348 PM EST Wed Nov 25 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Another warm front lifts north this evening ahead of an
approaching area of low pressure. The low passes north and west
of the area Thanksgiving Day, followed by a weak secondary low
crossing the area Thursday night. A weak frontal passage will
occur on Saturday. Low pressure will likely impact the region
during the beginning of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A few showers have broken out across Orange County as the next
warm front lifts north. This front is associated with an area of
low low pressure tracking from the Ohio Valley into the Great
Lakes. A slight chance of showers will continue through the
early evening hours before precipitation chances increase more
significantly after midnight as the entire system draws closer,
with rain becoming moderate towards daybreak.

After initially falling into the lower 40s across the interior
and the upper 40s to around 50 at the coast this evening,
temperatures will slowly rise towards morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Rain, moderate at times, will continue through Thanksgiving
morning and into the first half of the afternoon before
gradually tapering off late from west to east. Models continue
to advertise 100-200 J/kg CAPE during the afternoon, so
continued to mention the potential of isolated thunder in the
grids. This could also result in more showery precipitation
through the afternoon hours. Dry conditions will then return
overnight as the upper trough lifts to the northeast.

With the area in the warm sector, temperatures on Thursday will
range from the mid to upper 50s inland to around 60 at the
coast. Overnight lows will then fall into the upper 40s to lower
50s across much of the area Thursday night, although typically
cooler interior locations will see temperatures several degrees
cooler.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mainly dry wx can be expected Fri thru Sun. NBM pops are dry.
The GFS and ECMWF suggest the chance for a sprinkle, but with
pwats blw a half an inch, the fcst has been kept dry in line
with the NBM at this point. The NBM was used for temps.

The models are in pretty good agreement that deepening then
occluding low pres will impact the area at least Mon and Tue,
and perhaps longer. The current track is west of the area so a
rainfall event is expected attm. There could be a period of hvy
rain before occlusion, especially if the low tracks far enough
to the west to allow the subtropical moisture surge into the cwa
like the 12z ECMWF modeled. Still too much uncertainty this far
out to include the hvy rain in the official fcst attm.

There could be some coastal impacts with this sys as well.
Strong sly winds should build seas on the ocean to at least 10
ft. This could result in some beach erosion and washovers.
Spring tides will enhance the coastal flood threat as well.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Weakening low pressure will track well to north and west of the
area tonight into Thursday, sending a warm front through the
area overnight and a cold front early Wednesday evening.

VFR through the first half of the night, with IFR conditions
developing after 06Z. Improvement to MVFR is forecast during
the afternoon.

SSW winds this afternoon around 10 kt, then backing tonight at
less than 10 kt ahead of the warm front. Winds will then revert
back to the SSW 5-12kt toward daybreak, strongest near the
coast.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
A few gusts possible to 15-18kt this afternoon.

Amendments are likely late tonight with the timing of
ceiling/vsby category changes.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.Thursday Afternoon...Mainly MVFR with chance of IFR, improving
to VFR in the evening.
.Friday-Sunday...Mainly VFR.
.Monday...Chance of rain. SE wind 10-20kt G20-30kt, strongest
near the coast.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Marginal SCA conditions will continue on the ocean waters into
this evening with seas approaching 5 ft and occasional gusts to
near 25 kt. There may be a period of several hours overnight
where conditions are below SCA criteria, but seas quickly
increase back to 5 ft during the day on Thursday in persistent
southerly flow. With this in mind, elected to extend the SCA on
the ocean through the day on Thursday. Seas will then decrease
from west to east Thursday night.

Winds and seas will be blw sca lvls for most of the area Fri.
The ern ocean could be the exception with seas potentially
around 5 ft for at least the first part of the day. Winds and
seas are expected to be blw sca lvls for all waters over the
weekend, although there will be a brief uptick in nw flow after
the passage of a cold front Sat.

Gales are possible, along with high seas, for the beginning of
next week as strong low pres impacts the area.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall amounts of around 1 inch are expected across most of
the area from tonight through Thanksgiving Day. The highest
amounts are expected across Long Island and southern
Connecticut. No hydrologic impacts are expected.

No hydrologic impacts are expected Fri thru Sun. Deep low pres
could produce a period of hvy rain during the beginning of next
week which could produce some minor flooding.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Thursday for ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FEB/JMC
NEAR TERM...FEB
SHORT TERM...FEB
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...FEB/JMC
HYDROLOGY...FEB/JMC

NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion