000
FXUS61 KOKX 041954
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
354 PM EDT Mon Jul 4 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure across the area moves offshore this evening. A warm
front lifts north of the area on Tuesday, with its associated cold
front moving through Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. High
pressure builds in for Wednesday night and Thursday. High
pressure on Thursday gives way to a possible weak system on
Friday. High pressure then builds in through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Temperatures have been on track across much of the area, but
dewpoints needed to be nudged down in some locations based on
latest obs. A few dewpoint readings were in the upper 30s
allowing for very low RH values with temperatures in the upper
80s and low 90s. Locations across Long Island and southern CT
where the sea breeze has moved through are recording dewpoints
in the mid to upper 50s.

High pressure currently over the area will move offshore this
evening. High and mid level clouds will enter the area early tonight
and increase through the night ahead of an approaching shortwave.
With partly cloudy skies and increasing moisture, radiational
cooling conditions will not be as ideal as last night and lows
will be right around normal for early July. The interior may be
able to drop into the upper 50s, but the rest of the area will
see lows in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Low pressure associated with the aforementioned mid level shortwave
will move out of the Great Lakes towards New England Tuesday into
Tuesday night. A warm front will likely lift north of the region on
Tuesday with the trailing cold front moving across sometime Tuesday
night or Wednesday morning.

The frontal system will bring with it showers and thunderstorms
Tuesday afternoon and overnight, but the greatest instability and
lift continues to look like it remains north and west of our area.
Any SBCAPE looks to stay out of our area until overnight and
have introduced a slight chance of thunder at 22z based on when
we likely see a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE enter the area.
Instability increases overnight and continued slight chance to
chance of thunder through 10z.

With their latest updated SPC has continued a marginal risk for
severe thunderstorms into northeast New Jersey, but the greater
severe threat at this time looks to remain to our west.

Pwats are progged to be near 2 inches by late Tuesday as moisture
increases with the passing of the warm front. In any thunderstorms
heavy downpours may result in minor urban flooding.

Weak high pressure builds in behind the cold front on Wednesday.
Temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday will be similar, both in the
low 80s to low 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
An h5 trof will generally be over the area for the end of the week
as an upr low spins from Hudson Bay to nrn Quebec and eventually the
Maritimes by Sat ngt. There is some model disagreement with this
feature between the ECMWF and GFS, so confidence in the exact
details is low attm. However, despite some weak high pres over the
area, the upr lvls will attempt to produce some shwrs and perhaps
embedded tstms across the area at times Thu-Fri. Best chances on Fri
as convective remnants from the Midwest potentially come thru. The
fcst has been kept dry on Sat as heights rise.

A low 1020s high expands ewd from the Great Lakes over the weekend.
Subtle differences in the modeling, but the blended approach yields
a dry fcst, and this seems reasonable at this point.

Same scenario on Mon with the high weakening and drifting offshore.
Still dry per the consensus and this was followed.

The NBM was used for temps thru the extended, which are mainly blw
average.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure across the area moves offshore by early evening. A
warm front approaches from the SW on Tuesday.

Mainly VFR, with a chance of MVFR conditions in showers heading
toward 00Z Wednesday.

This will be another afternoon where seabreezes struggle to get much
farther north and west than KLGA and KJFK. KEWR and KTEB will likely
flirt with the seabreeze late this afternoon into early this
evening. Winds will become light S-SW or light and variable
everywhere this evening as high pressure continues to work offshore.
South winds will increase to 10-15 g20kt on Tuesday ahead of an
approaching frontal system. A few higher gusts around 25 kt will be
possible, mainly at the coast.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Seabreeze timing may vary by 1-2 hours. KEWR will be in close
proximity to the seabreeze this afternoon and it could be in and out
at times.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.Tue Afternoon-Early Wed Morning...MVFR or lower at times. Showers,
mainly Tuesday afternoon/night with a chance of showers lingering
overnight into early Wednesday. Slight chance of thunderstorms
Tuesday evening/night. S-SW wind gusts 20-25 kt Tue into Tue night.
Chance of SW LLWS at night.
.Rest of Wed...Slight chance of showers. Otherwise, mainly VFR.
.Thu...Mainly VFR.
.Fri...MVFR or lower at times with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.
.Sat...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and waves remain below SCA criteria this evening through
tomorrow morning. Southerly flow increases on Tuesday and wind gusts
may increase to around 25-30 kt late in the day and at night. Ocean
seas are also expected to build to 5-6 ft. A SCA advisory is in
effect, with the ocean waters and South Shore Bays starting at 18z
and then expanding to all waters by 20z. Winds and waves are
expected to remain below SCA criteria Wednesday night through the
weekend. Seas on the ocean are fcst to run in the 2-4 ft range
Thursday through Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Showers and a few thunderstorms Tuesday evening and night could
bring locally heavy rainfall. The main threat is most likely to be
minor urban flooding.

No hydrologic impacts expected Thu thru Mon.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
An increasing southerly flow of 15 to 20 kt and building seas of 4
to 5 ft on Tue will result in a high risk of rip currents. The worst
conditions are likely to be late in the day.

There is a moderate risk for Wed.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Rip Current Risk from Tuesday morning through Tuesday
     evening for NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Tuesday to 2 AM EDT Wednesday
     for ANZ335-338.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Tuesday to 6 AM EDT Wednesday
     for ANZ331-332-340.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Tuesday to 6 AM EDT Wednesday
     for ANZ345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...12/JT
NEAR TERM...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...12/JT
HYDROLOGY...12/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...12

NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion