463
FXUS61 KOKX 201500
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1100 AM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Freeze Watch for Nassau tonight has been cancelled.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A colder air mass has settled in. Sub-freezing temperatures
expected again for much of the area outside NYC and the nearby
suburbs tonight.
2) Milder weather should return mid to late week, before turning
more unsettled this weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Showers are possible with a secondary cold frontal passage into
early this afternoon. HRRR forecast soundings are even showing
some potential for thunder across eastern Long Island this
afternoon via minimal SBCAPE up to 200 J/kg and forced ascent
right along the front.
Behind the front will be the coldest air of the week as high
pressure builds in through tonight, with clearing skies, and
winds becoming near calm. Temperatures across most of the area
will be sub-freezing and a Freeze Warning remains in effect. In
addition with the light winds and clear skies, areas of frost
will be likely. The Freeze Watch for Nassau county was cancelled
as temperatures there are expected to remain just above
freezing. Record daily low temperatures will be approached or
may be set for a few climate stations Tuesday morning. See the
Climate section for details.
Temperatures remain several degrees below normal Tuesday, and
then return to near normal levels Tuesday night as high pressure
moves off the coast with a return flow. In addition warm air
advection sets up as a warm front approaches and moves through
Wednesday morning. Lift along the front increases Tuesday night,
and light rain showers will be possible. Also, a weak low will
pass across the area early Wednesday keeping a chance of showers
late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
.KEY MESSAGE 2...
The cooler regime is short-lived as the upper trough exits
offshore and ridging attempts to build in from the Midwest.
Afternoon temperatures Wednesday jump 5 to 10 degrees from the
previous day for most, with highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s,
though remaining a bit cooler across SE CT. Thursday is likely
the mildest day of the week, downsloping off NW flow helping
temps get into the upper 60s to low 70s from NYC and points
north and west, with low to mid 60s along the coast.
Temperatures then begin to gradually cool down late week, though
not as cold as earlier in the week.
Still a bit early for the fine details, but pattern appears to
turn more unsettled into the weekend. Decreasing forecast
confidence in this period with diverging solutions in guidance.
Shortwave energy looks to drop down along the eastern side of
the ridge, helping carve out an upper low near the Canadian
Maritimes. This should block further advancement of the ridge
and help break it down, with a nearby frontal boundary likely
serving as focus for showers at times. Placement and timing of
these features, as well as any frontal waves, will determine
exact impacts and extent of unsettledness, but doesn`t appear to
be a washout. Will continue to carry chances for rain through
the weekend and into early next week, with a bit cooler
conditions.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold front passes through this morning, followed by high
pressure building in from the west.
Mainly VFR thru TAF period. Brief MVFR possible with isolated
to scattered rain showers into this afternoon. There is a
chance the showers mix with snow NW of the NYC terminals, mainly
KSWF. East of NYC terminals, there could be an isolated brief
thunderstorm.
Winds become NW by early afternoon for most terminals, and
speeds increase with gusts around 20 kt this afternoon and early
evening. Gusts diminish and flow lightens as it gradually veers
NNW late this evening and into early Tuesday AM.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
PROB30 timing for showers may be off by 1-3 hours.
Peak gusts 25-30 kt possible this afternoon.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Tuesday: VFR.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of showers in the morning.
Thursday and Friday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Wind gusts in NW flow after a cold frontal passage may approach
25 kt for a few hours late this afternoon or early this evening
on NY Harbor and on the adjacent ocean waters right at the
harbor entrance. Have not yet issued SCA as confidence in this
happening is only medium at best, and so will watch trend with
winds early this afternoon over land in northern NJ and the NYC
metro area. Otherwise, winds and seas should remain below
advisory levels through Friday night.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Daily record low temperatures for Tue Apr 21:
KEWR: 31/1981
KBDR: 29/1956
KNYC: 26/1875
KLGA: 33/1956
KJFK: 34/1956
KISP: 30/1965
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for
CTZ005>012.
NY...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for
NYZ067>071-078>081.
NJ...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for
NJZ002-004-103>108.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Goodman/DR/MET
AVIATION...JM/DR
MARINE...Goodman/DR/MET
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