790
FXUS61 KOKX 081125
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
725 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes. Updated for 12Z TAFs.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Clearing conditions today will lead to a gradual warming
trend through the end of the week.
2) Showers and thunderstorms are possible both Thursday and
Friday afternoon and evenings.
3) Mainly dry conditions for the upcoming weekend with seasonably
warm temperatures.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
A wave of low pressure continues to push offshore this morning
allowing for drier air to filter into the low levels. Dry
conditions expected through Thursday morning.
High pressure builds over the area today. Temperatures will
start to warm, but still remain below average with highs in the
upper 70s to low 80s. The high pressure will shift to the
southeast and offshore on Thursday. Temperatures will continue
to moderate with highs reaching near seasonable levels in the
lower to middle 80s.
The warmest day of forecast period will likely be Friday. Highs
could come close to 90 degrees in the NYC metro and NE NJ with
most other spots reaching the upper 80s. Max heat indices
should reach the low to mid 90s. Temperatures/heat indices will
be lower for the weekend behind a cold front passage. The
forecast heat indices on Friday are below the 1 day heat
advisory criteria (100-104 for any length of time).
.KEY MESSAGE 2...
A weak shortwave aloft is forecast to pass across the northeast
on Thursday. At the surface, a trough of low pressure is likely
to set up across the area. The combination of these features
supports the potential for showers and thunderstorms in the
afternoon and evening. Modeling has differed in the placement of
the focus for convection, but current consensus indicates the
highest probabilities across the southern half of the area
including the NYC metro, NE NJ, and Lower Hudson Valley.
Showers/storms that develop in the afternoon may gradually work
east towards southern CT and Long Island in the evening. CAPE
values are not too impressive with forecast soundings indicating
1000-1500 J/KG of SBCAPE away from any sea breeze influence.
0-6km shear is weak with on average of about 20 kt. This should
limit severe potential and SPC currently only has the area in a
general thunderstorm risk for Day 2/Thursday.
A slightly more amplified shortwave trough axis is expected to
pass across the northeast on Friday. This system should drag a
cold front through the area late Friday into Friday night. The
system will bring potential for another round of showers and
thunderstorms Friday afternoon and early evening. The latest
model consensus brings the highest probabilities to areas north
and west of the NYC metro. Shear is a bit stronger averaging
around 25-30 kt with similar CAPE valued as Thursday. Specific
details on any severe weather threat are uncertain since this is
still 3 days out, but CSU MLP does indicate a marginal
probability for a severe thunderstorm.
PWATs are progged to range from 1.75-2.00 inches both days. Some
lingering MVFR at KGON through about 12Z.It is too early to
determine if there will be any flooding impacts and WPC
currently does not have the area in an excessive rainfall
outlook. However, given the high moisture content, any
thunderstorm can produce heavy rainfall rates.
.KEY MESSAGE 3...
The ensemble mean synoptic pattern across the CONUS indicates
ridging across the west and NW flow/troughing over the east
and Western Atlantic. This pattern should keep conditions
mainly dry through the weekend with temperatures near seasonably
warm levels. The general synoptic pattern could persist into
early next week with only a slight uptick in temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure builds over the terminals today and heads offshore
this evening.
Some lingering MVFR at KGON through about 12Z.
VFR.
NNE to NE winds less than 10 kt will shift to the S/SW early
Wednesday afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected.
.OUTLOOK FOR 09Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Late Wednesday Night: VFR.
Thursday-Friday: Mainly VFR. Chance of afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms each day with brief MVFR to IFR
conditions possible.
Saturday-Sunday: VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA remains in effect on the ocean waters east of Moriches
Inlet through 2 pm due to lingering 5-6 ft seas. Seas will
diminish on all waters today with high pressure returning. A
frontal system passes across the waters late Friday into Friday
night. Conditions should remain below SCA levels through the
upcoming weekend.
Rip Currents: A moderate risk of rip currents persists through
Friday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ350.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DS/MW
AVIATION...DBR
MARINE...DS/MW
NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion
