341
FXUS61 KOKX 260256
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1056 PM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal system impacts the region late tonight through
Saturday evening. High pressure builds to the west during
Sunday, and builds over the region Sunday night through Monday.
The high pushes off the Mid-Atlantic Coast Monday night which
allows a warm front to approach and then lift north Tuesday
night. This will be followed by a cold frontal passage
Wednesday. High pressure then builds in from the northwest
through Wednesday night, pushing off Thursday. This will allow
another frontal system to approach and affect the area at the
end of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Some low level dry air is limiting the rain reaching the ground
despite radar reflectivity late this evening across western
parts of the region. Still left out thunder for rest of tonight
as mesoscale models seem to be too moist in the low levels and
therefore there is more stability in the low level environment
inhibiting convection. Minor changes with POPs for showers and
some minor adjustments with temperatures as well as dewpoints to
better match observed trends.
Low pressure tracks well to the west tonight, through the
eastern Great Lakes as a weak warm front approaches to the
southwest. There is little forcing with the front, and guidance
shows that the front may dissipate before moving into the
region. Chances for showers increase late tonight as the low
moves into upstate New York and shortwave energy rotates through
the upper trough across the northeast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As one area of energy moves out of the region early Saturday
morning showers may become more scattered before increasing late
morning into the afternoon as a cold front approaches and
additional energy moves into the region. With increasing CAPE
late morning and through the afternoon, across northeastern New
Jersey, into the lower Hudson Valley, NYC, and into Nassau
county, and southwestern Connecticut, thunderstorms will be
possible. Farther to the east the marine influence will be great
enough to keep thunderstorms from tracking farther to the east.
An isolated storm or tow is possible, however, not enough
coverage and confidence to include in the forecast at this time.
The flow is progressive and the upper trough and cold front
moves through the northeast with showers ending by late Saturday
night. A gusty northwest flow develops behind the cold front
and blended in the 90th percentile of the NBM for both sustained
winds and gusts late Saturday night and through Sunday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Cut off low and associated upper level trough push continue to
move away from the area Sunday night as a building upper level
ridge from the Great Lakes region approaches. At the surface,
high pressure to the east builds into the region, pushing south
of the area and off the Mid-Atlantic Coast Monday night.
Upper level ridge axis moves over the area Tuesday, with a warm
front lifting north of the area Tuesday night, followed pretty
quickly by the cold front Wednesday. The passage of the cold front
looks moisture starved, lacks a strong upper level trough, and with
the surface low passing well north and west of the region in
southern Quebec, much of the forcing with this front will be well
north of the area. Therefore, not looking at a lot of precipitation.
In fact, while there might be some light rain showers Tuesday night
in association with the warm front, the passage of the cold front
may move through dry.
High pressure builds in for Wednesday through Wednesday night as
another upper ridge moves through the northeast Thursday night,
which allows the next frontal system to approach for the end of next
week.
As for temperatures, they will be above normal and on the increase
from Monday through Wednesday, with Tuesday being the warmest. Highs
will be in the 70s away from the coast, and 60s along the coast.
Temperatures fall back to seasonable on Thursday, with 60s expected
region-wide, with slightly warmer readings expected for Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A frontal system approaches from the west during the TAF period.
Associated cold front moves through Saturday late day into
evening.
VFR initially but lowering stratus and increasing showers will
make for MVFR overnight, trending eventually to mainly IFR
heading into early Saturday. Some fog is possible as well. With
increasing winds, mainly MVFR expected Saturday with showers
becoming more intermittent.
A line of thunderstorms is possible Saturday afternoon into
early evening. This is indicated with a PROB30 group for NYC
terminals as well as KHPN and KSWF. Farther east, any
thunderstorms are expected to weaken with no thunder mentioned
for Southern CT TAFs and KISP.
Regarding winds, much of the TAF period will have southerly flow
around 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to near 20 to 25 kt are forecast
Saturday. Winds become more westerly and increase after cold
front passage Saturday evening with gusts approaching 30 kt in
some locations.
Low level wind shear is expected but just for most eastern
terminals such as KISP and KGON with SW winds of 40-45 kt at
2kft overnight into Saturday morning.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments are likely to refine the timing of MVFR and IFR which
could be 1-3 hours off from TAF. Categories could fluctuate
Saturday between MVFR and IFR. Localized LIFR possible.
Amendments are likely to refine the timing of any thunderstorms
which could be 1-2 different than indicated in TAF.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Saturday night: MVFR with some possible lingering rain showers
and an isolated thunderstorm. Conditions improving to VFR by
late evening with showers tapering off. Winds become NW and
gusty. NW wind gusts 25-30 kt.
Sunday: VFR. NW wind gusts near 25-30 kt. Wind gusts lower to
near 20 kt in the evening and diminish overnight.
Monday: VFR.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR. Possible MVFR at night with possible
showers. SW wind gusts 15-20 kt in the afternoon at night. Wind
gusts up to 25 kt possible at times for afternoon into evening.
Wednesday: VFR. W-NW wind gusts 15-20 kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
With the approach of low pressure moving across the eastern
Great Lakes region late tonight into Saturday morning, and a
warm front to the southwest, southerly winds will be increasing
this evening, and ocean seas will be building. Have begun the
ocean SCA a few hours earlier, 200 AM EDT, with the earlier
increasing gusts and seas. Otherwise, the other advisories
remain as previously posted. Southerly winds and gusts increase
Saturday, and there is the potential of gusts approaching gale
force east of Moriches Inlet for a few hours late Saturday
morning into the afternoon, and near SCA levels on the central
Long Island Sound. With the short period and low confidence will
not post a gale of small craft for those zones. Winds and gusts
will likely fall below advisory levels Saturday evening for
several hours as the cold front moves through, however, ocean
seas will likely remain elevated. Then SCA conditions develop on
all the waters late Saturday night and through Sunday, and
possibly into Sunday evening, behind a cold front, and
advisories may be issued later.
Winds and waves are expected to remain below SCA criteria through
Tuesday. Wind gusts of 25 to 30 kt are possible over the ocean and
south shore bays Tuesday night with the approach and passage of a
cold front. Waves build to 5 to 6 ft on the ocean waters during this
time frame. Waves slowly diminish Tuesday night, falling below SCA
criteria on Wednesday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns throughout the forecast period.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ332.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ340-
345.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Saturday to 6 AM EDT Sunday for
ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/MET
NEAR TERM...JM/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JP/MET
HYDROLOGY...JP/MET
NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion
