000
FXUS61 KOKX 241805
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
205 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure moves offshore through tonight as a frontal
system approaches from the west. The associated warm front
approaches late tonight and moves through the region Tuesday,
followed by a cold frontal passage Tuesday night. High pressure
will mainly be in control for the remainder of the week. A cold
front is then forecast to move across the region late Friday
night into Saturday. Another high builds in Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Sea breezes have developed across Long Island and southern
Connecticut. These will continue to make progress inland through
the afternoon as high pressure moves offshore. Heights aloft
will continue to rise as an upper ridge axis approaches. Middle
and upper level clouds will gradually increase through the day
with skies becoming partly sunny by early this evening.
Highs will generally be in the lower to mid 80s, with slightly
cooler conditions along the immediate coastline due to sea
breezes. This is a few degrees above normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Upper ridge axis translates east of the area this evening with
large scale warm advection strengthening ahead of an upper
trough moving into the Great Lakes. At the surface, warm front
approaches from the Ohio Valley and nears the region toward
daybreak Tuesday. Decent warm advection coupled with marginal
instability and PW value around 2 inches will result in showers
breaking mainly after midnight, with the best chance being from
4 am to 8 am for NYC and points west, and from 8 am to noon for
points to the east. As airmass gradually destabilizes aloft, a
few thunderstorm are possible. Helicity is favorable for some
rotation, however most of the buoyancy is above this layer with
no surface based instability. Pockets of heavy rainfall will
likely result in urban and poor drainage flooding, impacting the
Tuesday morning commute. The steadiest rains pass eastern Long
Island and southeast CT during the early to mid afternoon
hours. As for the CAMS, the NAM 3km and HRRR are similar in
development time, but differences arise with areal extent and
the eastward progression. These details will likely vary from
run to run, but the markers are there for a period of widespread
showers along and ahead of the warm front.
Once in the warm sector on Tuesday, the focus of concern shifts
to potential convective development along and ahead of the
approaching cold front. Significant drying in the warm sector
and pronounced warming of the vertical temperature profile
indicates only an isolated potential during the late afternoon
and evening hours.
Partly to mostly sunny skies will develop in the afternoon for
all but far eastern sections where there could be stratus/fog in
the onshore flow. Highs will range from the lower to mid 70s
east, to the lower and mid 80s NYC and points north and west.
There is a moderate risk of rip current development at the
Atlantic Ocean beaches on Tuesday.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A cold front pushes offshore Wednesday morning, allowing showers to
taper off from west to east. High pressure over the Tennessee Valley
builds toward the region behind the cold front on Wednesday
dominating the weather through the end of the week.
A deep upper low across Ontario/Quebec is forecast to drop southward
into New England this weekend. An associated surface low and cold
front are expected to move through the area Friday night into
Saturday with an increased risk for some showers and thunderstorms.
Tuesday night through Saturday temperatures will be near to slightly
above normal with temperatures on Sunday slightly below normal for
this time of year.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will be centered offshore this afternoon, then a
warm front approaches tonight.
VFR continuing through the evening. MVFR or IFR in showers expected
after 09-11Z.
Southerly winds into early evening at around 10 kt or less.
Winds back towards SE this evening and overnight and lighten.
NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
KJFK TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.
KLGA TAF Comments: Sea breeze with shift to south could happen
before 19z.
KEWR TAF Comments: Timing of wind shift to SSE may be off an
hour or two.
KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.
KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.
KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.Tuesday PM...Becoming VFR.
.Weds-Fri...VFR.
.Saturday...Mostly VFR. Chance MVFR/TSTM.
&&
.MARINE...
Southerly wind develop on the waters today ahead of an
approaching frontal system. Wind gusts on the eastern bays,
sound, and ocean waters could top at near 20 kt Tuesday morning
ahead of the warm front. The warm front will also be preceded
by showers and isolated thunderstorms, mainly during the
morning and early afternoon hours. Otherwise, winds and seas
will remain below SCA levels through the period due to a weak
pressure gradient.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A 1/2 inch of basin average rainfall is expected across the
region late tonight into Tuesday. At this time no significant
hydrologic impacts are expected with this system and through the
remainder of the period.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) remains off
the air.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Fig/DW
NEAR TERM...DS/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...Fig
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...Fig/DW
HYDROLOGY...Fig/DW
EQUIPMENT...
NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion
