813
FXUS61 KOKX 240701
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
301 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds from the west into the weekend, remaining in
control through Monday. Low pressure may develop and pass to our
south Tuesday night into Wednesday. Low pressure to the east may
impact the area through the end of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Upper trough remains over the Northeast today, with the axis
shifting east into tonight. Deep associated low pressure to the
north continues to gradually lift north into eastern Canada.
At the surface, high pressure builds in from the Midwest. Winds
less gusty relative to recent days with a weaker pressure
gradient. Cyclonic flow still present, supporting some afternoon
stratocu. High temperatures continue to run a few degrees below
normal, in the upper 50s to around 60.
Lighter winds and temperatures a couple of degree cooler tonight,
so frost development possible across the interior overnight into
Sat AM. Best chances across the colder locales of Orange Co,
and a Frost Advisory was hoisted here. Overnight lows range from
the low to mid 30s in the interior, to the mid 40s around the
urban NYC metro.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The trough flattens locally Saturday, before being reinforced by
the next shortwave on Sunday. Limited impact to the sensible
weather though as surface high pressure settles over the region
through the weekend.
Skies likely a mix of sun and clouds both afternoons, with some
moisture trapped under the subsidence inversion. At least some
patchy frost development seems likely each morning across the
interior, perhaps more widespread inland Sunday night with
temperatures a few degrees lower, and could fall below freezing
in the coldest areas.
Otherwise, temperatures during the day run a good 5 degrees
below normal for late October, with light N/NW flow. Highs top
out in the mid to upper 50s on Saturday, and low to mid 50s on
Sunday. Blended in NBM25 to better align with recent trends in
temperatures.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure remains in control at the surface Monday through much
of Tuesday. An upper-level trough pivots through from the north and
east during this timeframe, but has minimal impact as an anomalously
strong ridge originating near the Hudson Bay keeps high pressure at
the surface the dominate force. Therefore, expecting mainly dry
weather Monday and Tuesday, but may see some more clouds around as a
result of the passing upper trough.
Late Tuesday into Wednesday, the upper-level ridge is expected to
retreat poleward as a trough develops far in the interior to the
west and may set up to our south with a developing low pressure
system over the mid-Atlantic states. This sets up a bit of a rex
blocking pattern. Have carried chance POPs through this period. This
may change depending on where the low tracks and its strength. The
models in this extended period haven`t settled on a consistent
solution yet.
Temperatures through this period are expected to sit below
climatological norms. Highs mainly in the mid-50s each day with lows
in 40s at the coast and 30s in the interior. Slightly cooler nights
Sunday and Monday may lead to some frost development in the interior
by daybreak Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low pressure continues to lift northward across eastern Canada,
while high pressure builds in from the SW.
VFR through the TAF period.
W winds will be less than 10 kt overnight, then veer to the WNW on
Friday closer to around 10 kt. KGON may for a time Friday afternoon
see winds back closer to the W (270).
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Saturday-Tuesday: Generally VFR. Chance MVFR or lower in showers
Monday and Tuesday, mainly at the coast.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) criteria
through the weekend on all local waters with nearby high pressure.
Increasing NE flow Monday as low pressure develops offshore
could bring a return to SCA conditions on at least the ocean by
early Tuesday, then likely persisting through at least midweek.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are currently no hydrological concerns through the middle
of next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Frost Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Saturday
for NYZ067.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DR/MW
NEAR TERM...DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BR/MW
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...DR
HYDROLOGY...DR
NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion
