000
FXUS61 KOKX 152000
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
400 PM EDT Mon Oct 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach the region from the west this evening
before passing through tonight. High pressure builds across the
area on Tuesday. A cold front moves across the region on Wednesday,
followed by high pressure on Thursday and Friday. Another cold
front will pass through the area on Saturday, followed by high
pressure once again for Sunday into Monday.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
There is a lull in the precipitation as a warm front that moved
across the area earlier has pushed north of the region. As a
cold front approaches from the west this evening, showers will
again increase in coverage this evening. As the cold front
crosses the region isolated thunderstorm are possible. Strong
mid level winds could mix down with any thunderstorm development
resulting in wind gusts up to 35 mph. As the front moves
offshore shortly after midnight, winds will shift to the
northwest but will remain gusty. Temperatures tonight will be in
the 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Skies will clear behind the front with winds gradually
diminishing through the day as high pressure builds across the
region. Tuesday`s high will be in the mid to upper 50s with lows
Tuesday night in the low to mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
This period will begin with a jet core of 130-140 kts over the
region on Wednesday.  A cold front will move through Wednesday
afternoon and immediately behind the front, especially closer to the
coast with steep lapse rates 35 to 40 knot winds have a good chance
of making their way down to the surface for late Wednesday afternoon
and evening.  Later shifts will have to evaluate as we get closer
for any wind advisory potential. Atmosphere will be moisture starved
with rigorous shortwave moving across the region later in the day
and acting as a digger of the long wave trough in the northeast.
This will bring the coolest air of the season thus far behind the
cold front. Thursday morning will be quite chilly with some 10
degree temperature departures below normal, and that will be with a
northwest wind. The air mass should moderate quickly with transient
ridging take place aloft by early Friday. Any temperatures
moderation will be short lived with a progressive and highly
amplified 500 mb flow. The next vigorous set of shortwaves are
progged to move through by late Saturday / Saturday night.  This
time there will be some moisture to work with in advance of the
preceding ridge and some moisture streaming northeast from the
Southeast and Gulf states.  Do to the progressive nature of the flow
at this time not looking for any rigorous low pressure waves to
develop along the boundary, but there will be enough moisture for at
least chance POPs.

Behind the cold front another reinforcing shot of cool crisp autumn
air is expected for the second half of the weekend, with another
chilly morning expected on Sunday.  By the looks of things it
appears that this highly amplified and progressive pattern will
continue into the early part of next week.  Therefore look for a 36
hour period of well below normal temperatures to be followed by a
similar duration of near normal temperatures each and every time a
series of rigorous shortwaves push through the area.  Due to a
progged lack of phasing between the north and southern branches and
much cooler and drier source regions of air masses any precipitation
with the frontal passages is expected to be relatively light.  This
is true especially when comparing to precip events from earlier this
month.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A warm front has lifted to the north. A cold front will follow
this evening, with timing from 02Z northwest at KSWF, to 03Z-04Z
NYC metro, to 06Z east.

MVFR cigs with some patches of IFR at KEWR/KISP/KHPN/KGON,
should improve later this afternoon and this evening, with VFR
expected at the NYC metros by about 22Z. At that time, S winds
that have been gusting on the occasional side today should veer
SW and gust more frequently into the 20-25 kt range ahead of the
approaching cold front. Main changes later on are to include
TEMPO for thunder with gusty winds and IFR vsby at most sites
for 1-2 hrs ahead of the front, then increased post-frontal wind
gusts to 30-35 kt across the board for a few hours, highest at
the NYC metros. Most sites should go quickly VFR after the
frontal passage as well. Expect diminishing NW winds late
tonight, settling in around or just over 10 kt by 12Z Tue.

 ...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Near term AMD possible to fine tune flight
cat. Gusts in tstms and after fropa later tonight could be a few
kt higher than fcst.

KLGA TAF Comments: Near term AMD possible to fine tune flight
cat. Gusts in tstms and after fropa later tonight could be a few
kt higher than fcst.

KEWR TAF Comments: Near term AMD possible to fine tune flight
cat. Gusts in tstms and after fropa later tonight could be a few
kt higher than fcst.

KTEB TAF Comments: Near term AMD possible to fine tune flight
cat. Gusts in tstms and after fropa later tonight could be a few
kt higher than fcst.

KHPN TAF Comments: Near term AMD possible to fine tune flight
cat. Gusts in tstms and after fropa later tonight could be a few
kt higher than fcst.

KISP TAF Comments: Near term AMD possible to fine tune flight
cat. Gusts in tstms and after fropa later tonight could be a few
kt higher than fcst.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.Tuesday...VFR.
.Wednesday...VFR. WNW winds G25-30kt after 18Z, peak G35kt
possible.
.Thursday...VFR. NW winds G20-25 kt, mostly morning.
.Friday...VFR.
.Saturday...

&&

.MARINE...
A tight pressure gradient will result in gale conditions across all
waters except for NY Harbor tonight as a cold front moves across the
area. Gale warning conditions will be in effect through Tuesday
morning. Small craft adv condition are likely needed Tuesday morning
then seas and winds are forecast to diminish through the day
and high pressure builds across the area waters.

Small Craft conditions expected for the coastal waters ahead
and behind a cold front on Wednesday. A period of gale
conditions are possible immediately behind the cold front for
Wednesday afternoon and evening. Winds and seas will fall below
small craft conditions by Thursday night and likely continue
through Friday morning. By Friday evening winds and seas will
build to Small Craft conditions again, and last through at least
Saturday night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Less than a half inch of precipitation expected tonight with a
frontal passage. Any thunderstorm development might result in higher
amounts but, no hydrologic issues are anticipated at this time. No
hydrologic issues are expected through the extended period.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) remains off
the air for an extended period of time.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ338.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ330-
     335-340-345-350-353-355.
     Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ330-335-340-345-350-
     353-355.

&&

$$

NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion