000
FXUS61 KOKX 181210
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
710 AM EST Mon Feb 18 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure passes to the south and east during the day today.
High pressure then builds across the area tonight through
Wednesday, followed by another low pressure system for Wednesday
night into Thursday. High pressure then returns for Thursday
night into Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Rain or a wintry mix is tapering off. Where temps remain at or
below freezing, freezing rain will warrant the continuation of
a Winter Weather Advisory.
Temperatures should rise above freezing across the entire area
later this morning.
Cold air advection on the back side of the system will result
in gusty northwest flow this afternoon, making highs in the
upper 30s to mid 40s feel several degrees colder.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
High pressure begins to build into the region tonight, with
northwest winds gradually diminishing overnight. Under clearing
skies, lows will fall into the teens and 20s, with highs on
Tuesday only rebounding into the 30s despite plenty of sunshine.
These temperatures are about five degrees below normal for this
time of year.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Progressive and active pattern expected mid week through the
weekend. Two systems to watch this time frame, with western
shortwave energy passing well NW of the area.
For the mid week system, sfc high not favorable for cold air damming
per latest 00Z model suite with high passing to the east.
Dry weather with passing high pressure Tuesday night gives way to
next low passing across the Great Lakes, with mid Atlantic low
development passing near or just south Wed night-Thu.
Although forcing with this system does not look to be overly strong,
deep layered lift ahead of shortwave combined with gulf tap, would
anticipate a moderate precip event for late Wed into Thu morning.
Thermal profiles appear cold enough to start as all snow Wed/Wed
eve, then transitioning to wintry mix interior and all rain
city/coast Wed night into Thu morning, before tapering off Thu
afternoon as mid-level shortwave passes. General potential for light
snow accum of 1-3 inches and a few hundredths of ice accum, but this
could change. Obviously higher accums expected across the interior.
Thereafter, generally zonal PAC influenced upper flow for late week
into the weekend, lending to slightly above seasonable temps.
Similar if not stronger shortwave passes well NW, with perhaps
deeper sfc low passing well to the west late next weekend.
With available gulf moisture, this energy will likely bring the next
chance of significant precip from low pressure/s. At this point too
much uncertainty in evolution to diagnose p-types, but would general
lean toward liquid vs frozen attm.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Low pressure passes southeast of Long Island today with high
pressure then building in tonight into Tuesday.
Winds under 10 kt become E-NE this morning. The flow will
become NW by afternoon and increase this afternoon into the
evening with gusts developing, mainly 20-30 kt, highest near the
city terminals. Gusts will gradually weaken late tonight.
Conditions will initially be IFR/LIFR this morning and improve
to MVFR/VFR this afternoon. Drizzle/light rain lingers across
NYC and Long Island terminals with freezing drizzle/light
freezing rain for terminals to the north. For KSWF, KHPN, KBDR,
and KGON, light ice accumulations of a glaze are expected this
morning.
...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
KJFK TAF Comments: Amendments likely for changing of categories
today, particularly the timing of improving conditions which
could be a few hours different from TAF.
The afternoon KJFK haze potential forecast is YELLOW, which implies
slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.
KLGA TAF Comments: Amendments likely for changing of categories
today, particularly the timing of improving conditions which
could be a few hours different from TAF.
The afternoon KLGA haze potential forecast is YELLOW, which implies
slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.
KEWR TAF Comments: Amendments likely for changing of categories
today, particularly the timing of improving conditions which
could be a few hours different from TAF.
The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is YELLOW, which implies
slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.
KTEB TAF Comments: Amendments likely for changing of categories
today, particularly the timing of improving conditions which
could be a few hours different from TAF.
KHPN TAF Comments: Amendments likely for changing of categories
today, particularly the timing of improving conditions which
could be a few hours different from TAF.
KISP TAF Comments: Amendments likely for changing of categories
today, particularly the timing of improving conditions which
could be a few hours different from TAF.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.Tuesday...VFR.
.Wednesday...Snow during the day, changing to a wintry mix at
night. Potential for IFR or lower.
.Thursday...Chance of freezing rain early near KSWF. Otherwise,
chance of rain during the day. MVFR or lower possible.
.Friday...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA conditions are expected by afternoon, as winds and seas
increase in the wake of a departing area of low pressure. The
SCA was expanded to include all of the non-ocean waters this
evening through the overnight hours. Conditions will quickly
fall back below SCA levels Tuesday morning as high pressure
builds over the waters.
High pressure continues to build Tuesday night and passes east
Wednesday. Tranquil winds and seas are expected.
Winds shift around to the E/SE and will increase Wed night ahead of
low pressure and associated frontal system. Seas build as a result.
The low moves east Thursday and winds will shift around to the W.
The westerly fetch will result in rougher seas over eastern
waters.
Conditions improve Thu night and Friday as high pressure builds.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through Tuesday.
A wintry mix to rain occurs later Wednesday through Wednesday night.
No hydrologic issues are expected. Another system may result in more
wet weather later next weekend. Too early to tell if this system
will result in any hydrologic issues.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A full moon Tuesday along with easterly winds early this morning will
result in localized minor coastal flooding with this high tide
cycle. Affected areas will be the most vulnerable locales of the
south shore bays of Queens and Nassau County, W Long Island sound,
and along lower NY/NJ Harbor.
Surge of 1 to 1 1/2 ft and, locally 2 ft, is needed for minor flood
thresholds to be reached. Feel several locations just reach minor
coastal flooding benchmarks.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NYC Central Park winds are out of service until further notice.
Loss of data is due to a severed cable. Parts are on order.
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) will remain off
the air for an extended period of time.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
CTZ005>012.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
NYZ067>071.
NJ...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
NJZ002-004-103>105.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST
Tuesday for ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 7 AM EST Tuesday for
ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FEB/PW
NEAR TERM...FEB/PW
SHORT TERM...FEB
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...FEB/PW
HYDROLOGY...FEB/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EQUIPMENT...
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