000
FXUS61 KOKX 272329
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
629 PM EST Mon Jan 27 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
A series of upper level disturbances move across the region through
Tuesday night. A cold front will also pass through the region
Tuesday evening. High pressure will then gradually build through
the end of the week. Low pressure may pass just offshore this
weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Minor update to temperatures/dewpoints to reflect latest
observation trends.
Otherwise, upper low over southeast Canada will remain nearly
stationary tonight. The cyclonic flow around the upper low will
send a 500 mb vort max across the region this evening. Mostly
cloudy to overcast sky conditions should gradually trend to
partly cloudy overnight once the shortwave shifts to the east.
There could be an isolated flurry or sprinkle this evening. Have
left out of the forecast due to dry low level moisture
profiles.
Temperatures initially will be slow to fall due to the cloud cover,
but should steadily drop overnight once clouds clear. Lows will
range from the upper 20s inland to the lower 30s at the coast. These
values are 5 to 10 degrees above normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The upper low slowly moves towards the North Atlantic within a
larger mean upper trough over the Canadian Maritimes. Another
500 mb vort max/shortwave will swing southward towards the local
area during the day on Tuesday. This shortwave will send a cold
front through the region late in the day. The energy and
shortwave should move through the region in the evening. The day
should start out mostly clear to partly cloudy and then clouds
increase in the afternoon as the shortwave nears. No
precipitation is expected with the cold front passage. Highs on
Tuesday will continue above normal for this time of year in the
lower and middle 40s.
The cold front and shortwave move offshore Tuesday night with high
pressure building to the west. Clearing skies are anticipated and
cooler air advects into the area under NW flow. Lows should be
closer to normal in the lower and middle 20s for most locations
except NYC where temperatures fall to near 30 degrees.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure will keep dry conditions across the region through the
end of the week with seasonably chilly conditions. Expect highs in
the 30s or lower 40s through this period and overnight lows in the
teens and 20s.
There is the potential for a coastal low to impact the region next
weekend. Models are still struggling to key in on the track of this
low, therefore will continue to carry chance POPs for Saturday and
Sunday. We will continue to closely monitor trends in the guidance
as we get closer to the event. Temperatures during the weekend will
be in the 40s with lows in the upper 20s to low to mid 30s. Dry
conditions are expected at the start of the week.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will be slow to work east
over the next couple of days, while a large area of high pressure
gradually builds in from the west. This will keep the area under a W-
NW flow.
VFR. Bkn-ovc clouds 4-6 kft should scatter overnight before
bkn-ovc clouds develop again Tuesday.
W/NW winds prevail 10 kt or less overnight. Speeds increase
slightly after 14-15Z Tuesday, and a few gusts 15-20 kt is
possible during the afternoon.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.Tuesday night...VFR.
.Wednesday through Friday...VFR.
.Saturday...MVFR or lower possible in rain or snow.
&&
.MARINE...
Marginal SCA winds and seas 5-6 ft continue on the waters east
of Moriches Inlet. These conditions should continue for a few
more hours. Sub-SCA conditions are then expected all waters
through Friday. The next chance of SCA conditions should be over
the weekend with the potential of a coastal low impacting the
waters.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are anticipated through the end of the
week.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is still
operating at reduced power.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ350.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Fig/DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...Fig
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...Fig/DS
HYDROLOGY...Fig/DS
EQUIPMENT...
NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion
