145
FXUS61 KOKX 032345
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
645 PM EST Wed Dec 3 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control through tonight. A cold front
will pass through Thursday afternoon, followed quickly by another
strong high pressure system building from the west Thursday night
into Friday. Weak low pressure passes off the southern Mid
Atlantic coast Friday night into Saturday. Brief high pressure
Saturday night into Sunday gives way to another cold front passage
Sunday night. High pressure will then be in control early next
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
High pressure remains firmly in place and weakens tonight.
Lows overnight will again drop below freezing, near 32 in NYC,
upper 20s at the rest of the coast then into the mid to lower
20s in interior locations. Despite freezing temperatures
anticipated, black ice is not a major concern. Any lingering wet
surfaces that froze over this morning, should be dry tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key Points:
* Cold frontal passage will usher in a quick shot of very cold air
Thursday night into Friday.
* Weak low pressure passing well south may brush the area with some
light snow/rain Friday night.
NBM brings the cold front through dry Thu afternoon, but some
CAMs have a hints of precip with the front. Its likely it will
remain a dry frontal passage with low PWATs in place, but the
strong forcing could lead to a few flurries N & W of NYC
Thursday afternoon. Max temperatures on Thursday should reach
the upper 30s to lower 40s prior to the cold front`s arrival.
Streamers from the Great Lakes following the frontal passage are
unlikely to make it into the area Thursday evening, but still
something worth monitoring.
A gusty NW flow will usher in very cold air for Thu night into
Fri, with low temps from the lower 20s in NYC, to the teens most
elsewhere, to some single digits well inland, with wind chills
as low as the single digits inland and the teens elsewhere.
Temps may have a hard time rising above freezing in the NYC
metro area and coastal sections on Fri, and it should remain
quite cold inland, with highs only 25-30. Record low temps for
BDR/LGA/JFK, and record low maximum temps for all climate sites
except NYC, may be in jeopardy on Friday. See the Climate
section for current records.
As the high slides east Fri night, the precip shield with weak
low pressure passing well south off the Mid Atlantic coast may
skirt the area. Forecast carries 30-35 PoPs for Long Island,
20-30 PoPs most elsewhere, and it may remain completely dry in
Orange County with only 20 PoPs. Any snow amts would be on the
light side, with no more than a coating mainly for NYC
metro/Long Island.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Points:
* Light precip remains possible Saturday morning, especially
east of the NYC metro and Hudson River.
* Mainly dry conditions should then prevail late Saturday
through early next week.
* Below normal temperatures expected through early next week.
* A cold air mass appears likely Sunday night through Tuesday.
Highs on Monday may struggle to rise above freezing even down
to the coast.
The modeling is in good agreement with the overall pattern for
the upcoming weekend. A mainly flat, progressive flow will keep
weak low pressure well offshore over the Atlantic on Saturday.
Upper trough axis persists to the NW across the Great Lakes.
There may be a weak surface trough over the northeast on
Saturday, so have kept low precip probabilities for now. Any
precip that occurs would be occurring within marginal thermal
profiles. Light rain is possible at the coast with possibly some
wet snow inland. It should be noted the day could end up dry as
the lift and moisture is limited Saturday morning.
Conditions should improve heading into Saturday night as weak
high pressure builds returns through Sunday. A stronger cold
front will move across the area Sunday night that will usher in
a cold air mass for early next week. The cold air looks to hang
around into Tuesday. Lows Monday look to fall into the teens and
low 20s with highs on Monday in the upper 20s and low 30s. Lows
Tuesday morning may be in the teens for much of the area with
highs moderating a bit into the 30s. Moderating temperatures are
signaled with the latest model consensus indicating highs
rebounding into upper 30s inland and low to mid 40s near the
coast.
A clipper system may move across the northeast on Wednesday,
but this is a week out and models/ensembles differ on timing and
strength of the low pressure.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure settles nearby to the south into this evening. The
high weakens late tonight as a cold front approaches from the
northwest. The cold front moves through for the late morning and
into the mid afternoon Thursday. High pressure then builds to
the west late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night.
VFR. With the passage of the cold front Thursday a brief period
of snow showers will be possible which will be accompanied by
strong and gusty winds. Included a 2 hour PROB30 for the snow
showers, however, the timing will likely be refined with later
forecasts.
Light NW to W winds become light and variable toward 00Z this
evening outside of the NYC metro terminals. The winds then
increase slightly into early Thursday morning.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected into Thursday morning.
Amendments will be possible for the cold front passage and the
possibility of snow showers.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Thursday night: VFR. NW winds with gusts around 25kt early,
winds diminish late with the gusts ending.
Friday: VFR during the day. Chance of MVFR and light snow at night,
especially for southern and eastern terminals.
Saturday: Chance of MVFR and light rain in the morning, mainly E of
the NYC metros.
Sunday through Monday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Seas 5+ ft should continue on the ern ocean waters tonight, lower
elsewhere. These then spread to all ocean waters daytime Thu ahead of a
cold front, along with gusts up to 25 kt. After fropa in the afternoon,
expect solid gales on the ern ocean waters from late Thu afternoon into
Thu evening, and a Gale Warning has been issued. Gales are also
possible on all other waters during this timeframe, except on the NY
Harbor, and a Gale Watch has been issued. Ocean seas should build to 5-
8 ft by Thu evening, and up to 5 ft on the central/ern Sound.
Winds and seas quickly ramp down late Thu night, with sub-SCA
cond on all waters by daytime Fri and continuing through the weekend.
The next chance for SCA conditions occurs Sunday night into Monday as a
cold front moves across the waters.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the middle of next
week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Water levels may touch minor flood thresholds at the Bridgeport and
Stamford tide gauges with the midday high tide on Sat as low pressure
passes well south.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record low temps for KBDR/KLGA/KJFK, and record low maximum
temps for all climate sites except KNYC, may be in jeopardy on
Friday December 5th.
Record Low Temperatures:
KEWR: 15/1935
KBDR: 17/1989
KNYC: 11/1926
KLGA: 21/1942
KJFK: 20/1966
KISP: 13/1966
Record Low Maximum Temperatures:
KEWR: 31/2002
KBDR: 28/2002
KNYC: 22/1886
KLGA: 32/2002
KJFK: 33/2007
KISP: 30/2002
&&
.EQUIPMENT...KOKX radar is back in service. Phones are also back
in service.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night
for ANZ331-332-335-340-345-355.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Thursday to 4 AM EST Friday for
ANZ338.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for ANZ350-353.
Gale Warning from 1 PM Thursday to 4 AM EST Friday for ANZ350-
353.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 1 PM EST Thursday for ANZ355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BR/DS
NEAR TERM...BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BR/DS
HYDROLOGY...BR/DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...MET
NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion
