410
FXUS61 KOKX 020128
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
928 PM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds over the area tonight into Wednesday. A warm
front then approaches from the southwest on Thursday. High
pressure briefly builds in from the north on Friday. A couple of
frontal boundaries near or over the region will bring unsettled
conditions this weekend. High pressure then slowly builds in
for Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Temperatures were adjusted to account for slightly warmer
observations. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track.
Skies remain mostly clear for much of the overnight under the
westerly flow aloft, though some high clouds look to begin to
stream in toward daybreak. Temperatures tonight will be a bit
tricky given this increase in cloud cover from the west along
with weakening winds. With good radiational cooling/decoupling
likely have maintained the cooler side of the guidance (MAVs)
with mid 20s across the interior and across eastern Long Island,
with mid to upper 30s elsewhere. Of course, should winds remain
elevated lows will be a bit warmer.
Note: The growing season begins today for parts of the area
including Nassau County, NYC and parts of northeast NJ.
Temperatures look to remain above freezing tonight for the zones
where the growing season has begun; thus no headlines were
needed.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Zonal flow aloft on Wednesday amplifies to more of a ridging
pattern on Thursday as an upper low ejects out of the northern
plains. Surface high pressure remains in control on Wednesday,
keeping the local area dry. Winds do become southerly late
Wednesday in early Thursday, as the ridge axis shifts east of
the area. Highs remain in the upper 40s under predominately
easterly surface flow.
Low pressure over the Great Lakes heads east Wednesday night into
Thursday, bringing a warm front to the area. Increasing moisture
with southerly flow ahead of this front will provide increased
chances of rain early Thursday along with fog potential. The
front looks to lift north or remain draped over the northern
parts of the CWA after 12Z Thursday. This will result shower
chances for much of the day, depending where the front
ultimately ends up. Highs will be warmer than on Wednesday as
much of the region is warm sectored, in the mid and upper 60s
across the coasts and interior and low 70s for NYC. Have kept
thunder chances out for now with limited instability, but can`t
rule out a rumble or two Thursday afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Model consensus brings high confidence in an upper ridge over
the forecast area through at least Sunday afternoon. A few mid-
level shortwaves and surface boundaries will bring varying
probabilities of rainfall with perhaps the exception being
Friday afternoon and night when surface high pressure dominates
with dry weather. Best chances of rain (greater than 60%) would
be Saturday and Saturday night with the approach of a warm
front, although left Thursday night`s chances at 50-60% with
uncertainty in the position of a frontal boundary nearby. Even
though PWATs may be 2-3 standard deviations above normal, upward
forcing looks to be relatively weak in the absence of notable
low level jets and upper jet streaks in addition to shearing of
mid level shortwaves as they run into the ridge in place.
Hydrologic impacts would therefore appear to be limited at this
time. As for temperatures through Sunday, NBM was used, however
uncertainty increases significantly on Sunday as there`s a 10-20
degree spread between the 25th and 75th percentiles for high
temperatures - a result of uncertainty surrounding the northward
progression of a warm front and how much cloud cover would
remain ahead of a trailing cold front. Given the synoptic
pattern, thinking is that we would have a better chance of being
on the warmer side of the envelope.
As for Monday and Tuesday, an approaching longwave trough would help
push a cold front through the area Sunday night. Some uncertainty
regarding post-frontal shower chances for Monday as a cyclonic flow
remains aloft and a strong upper jet streak enhances synoptic lift.
In any case, moisture would be more limited, so the more likely
scenario is for dry weather for Monday, which would last into
Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure gradually builds in through Wednesday morning,
then moves off the New England coast Wednesday afternoon as a
warm front approaches to the southwest and passes Wednesday
evening-night.
VFR for most of the TAF period. Some MVFR ceilings possible
Wednesday evening/night, though uncertainty remains. It could
end up being low-end VFR. Some rain is possible 20Z-4Z Wed-
Thu, but too low to include in the TAFs except for at KSWF where
there is a PROB30 mention for -RA 22Z-02Z.
Winds gradually veer to N and diminish into tonight, then
become NE toward Wednesday morning. There is some uncertainty as
to how quickly winds become E/SE late Wednesday morning into
the afternoon. Overall, winds will be 10kt and below through
tonight into tomorrow, then become 10-15 kt tomorrow afternoon
and evening.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Wednesday afternoon - Wednesday night: VFR, possibly becoming MVFR
or lower late afternoon, with MVFR to IFR more likely at night
with a chance of light rain.
Thursday: MVFR to IFR, possibly LIFR with a chance of showers.
in the morning and then again at night. S/SW wind 15-20kt,
gusting 20-30kt during the afternoon, and highest along the
coast.
Friday: MVFR early with a chance of showers, then VFR.
Saturday: MVFR to IFR, by afternoon with showers likely. E wind
gusts 15-20kt.
Sunday: IFR in the morning, becoming MVFR. A chance of showers.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
SCAs remain in effect on the ocean waters tonight through
Wednesday morning. Almost canceled the advisory west of Fire
Island Inlet based on observations at buoy 44025, which shows
seas hovering just below 5 ft for the past few hours. With still
a potential that a long period SSE swell pushes seas a little
bit higher over the next few hours, decided to keep the advisory
going for the time being. With that said, may be able to drop
the advisory with the next update. The remaining ocean waters
may be able to have the advisory dropped by the end of tonight
as well.
NWPS guidance has waves lowering for a period during Wednesday,
before becoming more elevated Wednesday night and returning to advisory
levels by late at night all the way into Friday morning. In
addition, non-ocean waters could see gusts to 25kt Thursday
afternoon.
After some lingering seas of 5 ft possible Friday morning, the
next chance of advisory conditions would be during the day on
Saturday over the ocean waters, with a better chance following
for Sunday as low pressure approaches.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through early next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Wednesday for ANZ350-353.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DBR
NEAR TERM...JC/DBR/BR
SHORT TERM...DBR
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...BR
MARINE...JC/DBR
HYDROLOGY...JC/DBR
NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion
