000
FXUS61 KOKX 272136
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
536 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A surface disturbance moves through tonight. A cold front moves
through late Wednesday into Wednesday night. Canadian high pressure
builds in for Thursday. High pressure remains over the region
Thursday night into Friday, and weakens Saturday. Meanwhile,
tropical moisture will approach from the south Saturday as a
stronger high builds to the north. The high remains to the north
Sunday into Monday as the remnants of Ian remain to the south.
Refer to the National Hurricane Center for forecasts on Ian. The
high weakens Tuesday allowing the low to track north.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Only minor updates were made to account for the current
conditions.

There will be just a slight chance for showers, mainly for the
first half of tonight, as a surface trough moves through with
some upper level support from the trough over the Northeast US.
Any showers should end a few hours after sunset, especially
with the loss of daytime heating and thus instability. Some
CAMs show the possibility of showers moving through until about
midnight, and thus continue slight chance through then. Clouds
should also decrease after sunset, but again will likely hang on
for inland areas as some showers move through.

Near to slightly below normal temperatures are expected
overnight with lows in the middle 40s to middle 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The upper level trough will remain more or less in place
through Thursday night, deamplifying late Wednesday into
Thursday. A cold front will move through Wednesday into
Wednesday night, but it looks to be moisture starved as it loses
its upper level support, though a stray shower across inland
areas (northeast New Jersey, Lower Hudson Valley, and inland
southern Connecticut). With a persistence forecast, would expect
stratcu to develop once again during the day Wednesday across
the forecast area, much like today (Tuesday), and temperatures
will be similar, ranging from the upper 60s to lower 70s on
Wednesday. Slightly cooler temperatures expected for Thursday
with a cooler northerly flow setting up.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Westerly upper flow remains across southern Canada Thursday
night into the beginning of next week as weak flow dominates
across the northeast. High pressure to the north weakens Friday
night into Saturday as Ian tracks northward. Refer to the
National Hurricane Center for forecasts of Ian. Another,
stronger high builds in from central Canada Friday into Sunday,
and will keep tropical moisture from tracking north, possibly
moving into a portion of the region. The high then weakens
Sunday into the beginning of next week, with the remnants of Ian
moving farther to the north, but likely remaining to the south
of the region.

With the uncertainties with the strengths of the highs and the
track of tropical moisture have used the NBM guidance, keeping
low end chance and slight chance probabilities.

Temperatures will be near seasonal levels Thursday night
through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR expected through the TAF period.

Mainly W winds 15-15 kt with gusts near 20 kt through the early this
evening. Gusts should end shortly after sunset. Winds becoming W-NW
winds 10-15 kt on Wednesday...gusts to 20 kt possible during
the afternoon but they should be more isolated.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.Wednesday...VFR. W/NW gusts up to 20 kt possible.
.Thursday...VFR NW-N gusts 15-20 kt day into early evening.
.Friday...VFR.
.Saturday...VFR early...chance MVFR developing in the afternoon with
a chance of -shra.
.Sunday...MVFR possible in a chance of shra.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
No changes to the winds and seas at this time.

Winds will remain below SCA criteria tonight. 5 ft seas are possible
across the central and eastern ocean zones, but it will be marginal
and mainly for the outer waters of these zones.  Will have to
monitor for the possibility of a short fused SCA.

High pressure remains over the area through the end of the week and
into the weekend with sub-SCA conditions expected across the
forecast waters Thursday night through early Sunday morning.
High pressure weakens Sunday as low pressure approaches to the south
will allow for a increasing northeast flow. Wind gusts and seas
likely increase to SCA levels on the ocean Sunday and continue into
Sunday night while the non ocean waters remain below advisory
levels.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through the day Thursday.

No significant rainfall expected Thursday night into the beginning
of next week. There is uncertainty as to how far north tropical
moisture will track during the weekend, and into the beginning of
next week, with uncertainty for the potential of heavy rainfall
across portions of the region.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A moderate risk for the development of rip currents remains at the
ocean beaches through this evening and Wednesday. There will be a
low risk at the New York City and Nassau county ocean beaches
Thursday, and a moderate risk in the morning becoming low during the
afternoon at the Suffolk county beaches.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/MET
NEAR TERM...JP/MET
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...JP/MET
HYDROLOGY...JP/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion