329
FXUS61 KOKX 301132
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
732 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slowly approach the area today, arriving
tonight, then stalling nearby or over the area into Thursday. A
frontal wave then develops late Thursday and passes to the south
and east through Friday evening. High pressure settles over the
region this weekend and remains in place into early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
At the surface, weak high pressure offshore loses its influence as a
cold front approaches the area. A prefrontal trough arrives late
this afternoon/evening followed by a slow-moving cold front which
looks to stall nearby or over the area late tonight.
Aloft, an upper-low moves east through Quebec, leading to gradually
falling heights today into tonight and a flatter, more zonal flow.
Some 00Z guidance hint a subtle shortwave may pass within this flow
this afternoon/evening.
Prior to the arrival of a pre-frontal trough, one more day of warmer
temperatures is expected. 850mb temps remain around 20C which is
about 6C above the average. Highs are currently projected to be in
the low/mid 90s for much of the area while spots around the NYC
metro may reach the mid/upper 90s. Areas in urban NE NJ looks to
fall solidly in the upper 90s. Given midday and afternoon dewpoints
fall in the upper 60s to low 70s, heat indices will range between 99
to 102 for much of the area. Some coastal spots may only reach 95 to
99 aided by a sea breeze. A Heat Advisory is in effect for the
entire area, except in NE NJ, where an Extreme Heat Warning has been
carried. Here, heat indices could reach 105.
As a prefrontal trough arrives, timed in tandem with a subtle
shortwave passing aloft, isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening. The primary
area will be N & W of NYC, with only slight chances down to the
coast. SPC has the area in a Marginal Risk for a few storms may
possibly reaching severe criteria for winds/hail. However,
while instability looks good, other parameters like bulk shear
and mid- level lapse rates look poor, in addition to a weak
trigger for these storms.
Following the prefrontal trough, a slow-moving cold front will
arrive and stall over the area late tonight. Given the weak nature
of the front and the loss of daytime heating, it looks likely we`ll
stay dry into the night, tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A stalled front is expected to linger over the area Thursday into
Friday. A low will develop to our southwest and gradually track west
and then south of the area through this time period. Friday night,
this low will exit out to sea, clearing any lingering rain.
The synoptic pattern looks good for a prolonged rainfall event with
the area under the right entrance of a jet streak Thursday through
Friday with shortwave energy passing aloft. Instability does not
look particularly strong Thursday through Friday. Still anticipating
convection, but confidence in persistent heavy downpours is low.
Despite this, WPC does still have the area under a Slight Risk for
Excessive Rainfall. PWATs will range from 1.75-2.25" through this
period.
Following a dry Wednesday night, rainfall should start Thursday
morning, becoming more widespread late Thursday afternoon into
Thursday night. Rainfall should gradually clear north Thursday
evening into early Thursday night.
Temperatures will cool significantly Thursday into Friday,
compared to Wednesday. Highs reach the mid to low 80s on
Thursday then remain limited to the upper 60s to low 70s on
Friday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Cooler and noticeably drier air will work in out of southeastern
Canada as a rare late summer high builds down and delivers drier
conditions with noticeably lower humidity into the weekend. Saturday
morning will have a hint of early fall to it with temperatures to
start in the middle 60s to around 70 on a north to northeast wind
with clear skies. Northern and northwestern interior locations for
both Saturday and Sunday mornings will have temperatures down into
the middle and upper 50s. Temperatures Saturday afternoon recover to
close to 80, which is about 5 degrees or so below average for the
start of August. Temperatures should then slowly warm into next week
with afternoon max temperatures likely returning to seasonable
levels into the lower and middle 80s. Went with the NBM guidance
throughout the period.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A weak surface trough remains over the area through today. A cold
front then gradually approaches late in the day, before stalling
over the area late Wednesday evening.
Generally looking at VFR through the forecast period. However,
terminals like KSWF, KHPN, KTEB, KEWR, and KBDR has the potential
for some showers/thunderstorms to bring brief MVFR conditions
Wednesday afternoon/early evening. Confidence is slightly higher at
KSWF where a TEMPO for TSRA is included in the TAF.
The other northern terminals have a PROB30 for now.
Winds will be light and mostly variable in direction early this
morning. Winds pick up out of the S/SW today up to 10 kt, except up
to 15 kt for KJFK late in the afternoon / early evening.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Low confidence in the wind direction forecast through much of this
morning with winds increasing to 5 to 10 kt towards midday. A
thunderstorm is possible for the afternoon / early evening, but
confidence is currently too low to include in TAFs (except for KTEB
and KEWR where a PROB30 for TSRA is in place).
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Thursday: Rain chances peak Thursday afternoon into Thursday night.
Potential for MVFR or lower in any showers/storms.
Friday: MVFR or lower in AM, conditions improve to VFR for the
late afternoon and evening.
Saturday and Sunday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Conditions are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory
criteria through Thursday night. A wave of low pressure developing
on a stalled front south of Long Island late Thursday night will
deepen and pass south and east through Friday evening. Small Craft
Advisory conditions are likely to develop on the ocean waters during
Friday and then continue into Friday night. Once the wave passes to
the east, conditions will be improving west to east, falling below
advisory level winds Friday night while waves may not drop below
advisory levels on ocean waters through Friday night.
Ocean seas are currently progged to linger near 5 to 6 ft early
Saturday morning, otherwise with the high building over the waters
through the weekend look for sub advisory seas to return all ocean
waters by Saturday afternoon and evening with seas settling closer
to 3 to 4 ft. Sub advisory conditions will prevail on Sunday with
ocean seas averaging close to 3 ft.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through Wednesday.
More persistent and widespread moderate to heavy rainfall is
possible Thursday afternoon into Friday. WPC has outlined the entire
region in a slight risk of excessive rainfall Thursday into Friday
morning, and localized to isolated areas of flash flooding could
develop where the heaviest axis of rainfall sets up. Currently there
is the potential for 2 to 3 inches across the lower Hudson Valley
into northeastern New Jersey, and 1 to 2 inches farther south and
east. Some areas could receive higher amounts. There remains some
uncertainty as to where this axis will be. Otherwise, anticipating
more of a nuisance flood threat, particularly in the typical urban
and poor drainage areas.
Dry weather returns Friday night with no hydrologic concerns
through early next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is an overall low rip current risk for ocean beaches
through Thursday due to a 1 ft S/SE swell and 1 to 2 ft wind
waves.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures for Wednesday, July 30
----------------------------------------------------
Newark 101/1949
Bridgeport 95/1949
Central Park *98/1988
LaGuardia 99/1988
Kennedy 96/2002
Islip 95/1988
* Also occurred in previous years
Record Minimum Temperatures for Wednesday, July 30
----------------------------------------------------
Central Park........80 (2002)
LaGuardia...........81 (2019,2002)
Kennedy.............79 (2006,1995)
Islip...............76 (2002)
Newark..............81 (2002)
Bridgeport..........76 (2002)
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>012.
Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
evening for CTZ009>012.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ067>075-
078>081-176>179.
Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
evening for NYZ069>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002.
Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
evening for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ004-
006-103>108.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/BR
NEAR TERM...BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...JE/BR
HYDROLOGY...JE/BR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...
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