000
FXUS61 KOKX 060257
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1057 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Deepening low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes remains
nearly stationary through midweek and sends a cold front through
the area on Tuesday. The low will be near Nova Scotia Wednesday
and gradually weaken through Thursday. The weak low will then
remain near the Canadian Maritimes and along the northeast coast
Friday. Weak high pressure builds in Saturday and moves
offshore Sunday as a cold front approaches. The front moves
through the region late Sunday into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
The band of showers rotating through New London County and the
twin forks of Long Island is a little later, and updated the
probabilities to keep a chance through 01Z. Also updated the
sky cover to expand coverage westward into northeastern New
Jersey based on latest satellite. Otherwise forecast is on
track, with minor updates for current temperatures.

An upper level trough over the northeast supports the deepening
of a surface low pressure system over the Canadian Maritimes
through tonight and into the middle of the week. A wave of
energy embedded in the trough dives south into Western New York
tonight and into early Tuesday.

Lows tonight will be in the 50s with the warmest locations at
the coast and near NYC.

Wildfires in Quebec are producing a significant amount of smoke
that will make its way over the area tonight and into the day
on Tuesday. While much of the smoke should be above the surface,
there will likely be noticeably hazy skies on Tuesday with a
low chance of some patchy smoke near the surface, as indicated
by the HRRR smoke model fields.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Mid-level energy rotating around the base of the trough and on the
west side of the meandering low pressure will result in a cold
frontal passage into the day on Tuesday. With partly cloudy skies in
place for much of the area, there should be sufficient surface
heating and low level mixing to create some instability ahead of the
mid-level energy moving through. This may result in the development
of some showers and thunderstorms. While showers may be in the area
during the morning, the best chance for thunderstorms wont be until
the late morning and into the afternoon. The best chance of any
showers or thunderstorms will be for northern areas, mainly the
Lower Hudson Valley and Southern Connecticut. Highs will be back to
near average with temperatures in the middle to upper 70s for most.
The NYC metro and NE NJ may rise into the lower 80s.

Any showers or storms diminish by evening with improving conditions
and clearing skies. Some cloud cover may work its way back in for
northeastern areas. Lows will be in the upper 40s to near 50 inland
and in the middle to upper 50s along the coast.

Air Quality Alerts are in effect for NY and CT for Tuesday for fine
particulate matter caused by the smoke from the Canadian
wildfires.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Omega blocking will persist Wednesday into Saturday as a large
closed upper low remains over the northeast and into eastern Canada.
The low weakens Saturday and drifts northeast as additional energy
rotates into the upper trough. That low deepens and becomes closed
off Sunday and remains into Monday. Overall, the extended period
will be unsettled except for a brief dry period late Saturday into
Sunday as weak ridging builds into the northeast. Temperatures will
be generally just below seasonal normal levels, except for Sunday
with the ridge and dry weather.
There is a chance of showers Wednesday into Saturday with a slight
chance of thunderstorms inland late Thursday and Friday where there
will be better instability and forcing. Additional showers and
thunderstorms will be possible with a cold front Sunday and Monday.
Generally followed the NBM guidance except with a few adjustments to
the probabilities.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Weak high pressure continues to drift south of the area overnight
with a trough of low pressure remaining nearby through the early
morning. A slow moving cold front will then slowly move through on
Tuesday.

VFR prevails on Tuesday, with possible brief MVFR conditions in any
TSRA that develops for the afternoon. This possibility is currently
being handled with PROB30 groups.

Light WNW winds overnight, then increasing by late morning and the
afternoon and veering slightly with gusts 20-25 kt. The gusts subside
and end Tuesday evening.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Wind directions may be off by 020 degrees at times and the timing of
gust initiation be by off by 1-2 hours on Tue. Amendments may be
needed with respect to shower and thunderstorm activity.


OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday night: VFR with NW winds around 5 to 10kt.

Wednesday: VFR. W-NW winds G20kt.

Thursday through Friday: Mainly VFR. Chance of afternoon and early
evening showers both days.

Saturday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Made minor adjustments to the ocean seas across the western
waters with seas varying between 2 to 2 1/2 feet with an
easterly swell.

Winds and seas likely remain below SCA levels Wednesday through
Saturday night as low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes
weakens through Thursday. Weak low pressure will then remain in
the vicinity of the forecast waters through Saturday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through the beginning of next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Deepening low pressure near Nova Scotia was producing an easterly
swell, in addition to Ekman transport with a prolonged northerly
offshore flow. Guidance continues to indicate water levels during
tonight`s high tide cycles will should be higher than recent high
tide cycles. Water levels at Freeport may reach moderate flood
benchmarks. Advisories and statements remain in effect for the south
shore of western Long Island/NY Harbor/western Sound areas.

There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents at
the ocean beaches through this evening. There is a low risk for
the development of rip currents at the ocean beaches Tuesday
and Wednesday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for CTZ009-010.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for NYZ071.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ074-
     075-178-179.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NJZ006-
     106-108.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/MW
NEAR TERM...MET/MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...MET/MW
HYDROLOGY...MET/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion