000
FXUS61 KOKX 232358
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
658 PM EST Sun Jan 23 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves through tonight, followed by weak high
pressure briefly building in on Monday. A clipper system then
passes to our north, pushing a warm front through on Monday
night and a cold front late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Arctic
high pressure builds toward the region Tuesday night through
Wednesday, and then moves off the northeast coast Thursday. A
cold front crosses the area Friday. A low pressure system tracks
off the coast Saturday followed by high pressure for Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Scattered snow showers were moving through the region and
minimal probabilities look ok. Otherwise, made minor adjustments
to the temperatures and dew points, and cloud cover.

A cold front along with mid level shortwave energy will be
moving through tonight. Associated lift combined with sufficient
moisture should trigger scattered snow showers, primarily
within a few hours either side of midnight. Some areas should
pick up a light coating of snow from this. Low temperatures
ranging from the mid 20s in the city to the teens inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The flow aloft becomes zonal on Monday with a surface ridge of
high pressure pushing in. Aside from some cloudiness mainly near
the coast to start, it looks like it will turn out to be a
mostly sunny day. Winds will be on the lighter side, and may
even become light and variable in the afternoon. Combined with a
mostly sunny sky, apparent temperatures in the afternoon
shouldn`t be too far from ambient temperatures. High
temperatures will however continue to remain below normal.

A warm front approaches Monday evening and pushes through most
of the forecast area by the end of the night. Overall best
upward forcing appears to be over the northern half of the
forecast area with isentropic and shortwave lift. Will keep with
chances of snow showers in the forecast with the better chances
toward the northern zones. Warm advection with SW winds will
help low temperatures in most cases to be a few degrees above
normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A broad longwave trough will remain across much of the country
east of the Rockies Tuesday and Wednesday, with near zonal flow
for Thursday. The longwave trough amplifies again Friday into
Saturday night. One embedded shortwave, and surface clipper
system, will be crossing New England Tuesday as a cold front
with the low moves through late Tuesday into Tuesday evening.
There is little moisture with the cold front and model guidance
brings the front through dry. Arctic high pressure will be
building toward the region behind the cold front Tuesday night.
Went below the NBM guidance, leaning toward the colder GFS and
NAM, and more toward the 50 percent NBM for temperatures Tuesday
night through Wednesday night as cold advection continues into
Wednesday night. The cold advection ends late Wednesday night as
ridging builds toward the region. Temperatures will be near
normal seasonal levels Tuesday, and then below for the remainder
of the week and into the weekend. Temperatures will be 15 to
near 20 degrees below normal, however, no records are expected
to be tied or broken.

The longwave trough begins to amplify again Friday as a
shortwave moves int the northern stream. Guidance has diverged
and no longer phases the northern and southern stream Friday
into Saturday. The upper trough will remain progressive into the
upcoming weekend as a ridge builds into the west coast. As
southern stream shortwave will be moving into the southern
states Friday and Friday night. Guidance has come into better
agreement with the offshore low that will be developing
Saturday, passing the low to the east late Saturday into
Saturday night. The NBM has trended downward for the potential
for accumulating snow, mainly east of New York City, with this
system. Even most of the GFS ensembles have trended much lower
for snowfall, most clustering near minor accumulations. There
are a couple of members that remain rather high for snow. Also,
the Canadian is an outlier with the low, which brings the low
much closer to the coast, inside the 40/70 benchmark. Used the
NBM probabilities for the storm which maintains slight chance
and low end chance probabilities. Another high builds to the
south behind the offshore low, Saturday night into Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold front will slowly approach this evening, and move
through around or after midnight tonight. High pressure will
build in on Monday.

Seeing bands of light snow showers/flurries over the NYC metro
airspace. VFR conds accompany most of this activity, but with
KSMQ (west of KEWR) having gone IFR after 23Z think at least
tempo MVFR conds possible at KEWR as this activity moves out of
the higher elevations.

Cold front off to the west is also accompanied by snow showers,
so AMD likely as the front approaches/moves through and specific
terminal impacts become clearer. Meanwhile have taken a more
pessimistic turn with cigs after cold fropa, which look to lower
to MVFR overnight into a good portion of Mon AM.

Winds mainly SW to W 5-10 kt should turn NW-W at similar speeds
overnight, then back SW during Mon afternoon.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

AMD likely for TEMPO flight cat changes with any snow showers
tonight.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.Monday night...Chance of MVFR or lower conditions in snow
showers at KSWF late evening/overnight. Mainly VFR elsewhere.
.Tuesday...through Thursday...VFR.
.Friday...Mainly VFR. Chance of snow at night at KGON with MVFR
or lower cond.

&&

.MARINE...
Made minor adjustments to the winds and gusts early this
evening for current conditions. Ocean seas remain just under 5
feet. Winds and seas are expected to remain under SCA criteria.
Expecting seas around 4 ft on the ocean tonight. For Monday,
northerly winds under 15 kt with a few gusts up to 20 kt
possible to start, but winds become lighter in the afternoon.
Winds the increase from the SW with a warm front Monday night,
but conditions across all waters should remain below advisory
thresholds.

Minimal small craft gusts may be on going Tuesday morning,
before briefly diminishing. As Arctic high pressure builds
toward the region behind a cold front Tuesday night wind gusts
will be increasing to SCA levels on the ocean waters, and
possibly across the Long Island Sound east of Port Jefferson and
Bridgeport. As the center of the high builds toward the
forecast waters Wednesday night winds and gusts will be
diminishing, with sub SCA gusts expected by Thursday morning.
Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels across all the
forecast waters Thursday through Friday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through next week. River ice
continues to increase due to the persistent cold. The Wallkill
River at Gardiner may be impacted by ice.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MET
NEAR TERM...JC/MET
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...JC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/MET

NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion