WxSim & NWS Forecast Comparison
National Weather Service (NW), Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)
Morning Forecasts
| Updated: 05-17-26 at 5:00 am |
| Goal |
Forecast Day |
Day +1 |
Day +2 |
Day +3 |
| ± 2.0° F |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
| Date |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
| 05-17-26 |
48 |
|
83 |
75 |
|
60 |
56 |
|
79 |
83 |
|
59 |
52 |
|
89 |
88 |
|
65 |
55 |
|
89 |
88 |
|
55 |
| 05-16-26 |
50 |
74.7 |
75 |
73 |
45.0 |
56 |
48 |
|
82 |
75 |
|
58 |
55 |
|
80 |
83 |
|
59 |
52 |
|
86 |
89 |
|
63 |
| 05-15-26 |
49 |
70.5 |
68 |
80 |
212.0 |
47 |
50 |
74.7 |
74 |
73 |
45.0 |
55 |
48 |
|
79 |
76 |
|
54 |
54 |
|
75 |
83 |
|
55 |
| 05-14-26 |
48 |
-148.0 |
64 |
80 |
212.0 |
48 |
49 |
70.5 |
67 |
80 |
212.0 |
48 |
50 |
74.7 |
73 |
72 |
45.0 |
53 |
48 |
|
75 |
75 |
|
57 |
| 05-13-26 |
51 |
-148.0 |
71 |
72 |
212.0 |
51 |
48 |
-148.0 |
66 |
81 |
212.0 |
48 |
50 |
70.5 |
65 |
79 |
212.0 |
48 |
49 |
74.7 |
73 |
72 |
45.0 |
54 |
| 05-12-26 |
52 |
-148.0 |
67 |
80 |
212.0 |
48 |
52 |
-148.0 |
70 |
73 |
212.0 |
51 |
48 |
-148.0 |
69 |
84 |
212.0 |
51 |
51 |
70.5 |
66 |
83 |
212.0 |
50 |
| 05-11-26 |
55 |
-148.0 |
67 |
86 |
212.0 |
46 |
53 |
-148.0 |
67 |
83 |
212.0 |
48 |
52 |
-148.0 |
66 |
72 |
212.0 |
50 |
50 |
-148.0 |
71 |
78 |
212.0 |
46 |
| Results |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
| # Succ |
0 |
|
1 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
|
1 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
|
1 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
|
1 |
0 |
|
0 |
| % Succ |
|
|
16.7 |
|
|
0.0 |
|
|
20.0 |
|
|
0.0 |
|
|
25.0 |
|
|
0.0 |
|
|
33.3 |
|
|
0.0 |
| Ave Error |
140.7 |
|
144.0 |
115.0 |
|
138.5 |
128.6 |
|
130.2 |
111.8 |
|
132.6 |
110.3 |
|
109.6 |
107.0 |
|
123.8 |
81.1 |
|
75.1 |
96.7 |
|
112.3 |
| Net Error |
125.3 |
|
143.1 |
-105.7 |
|
-134.8 |
110.2 |
|
128.6 |
-100.6 |
|
-128.6 |
87.7 |
|
106.0 |
-93.5 |
|
-119.8 |
50.9 |
|
70.9 |
-78.7 |
|
-106.3 |
| Std Dev |
79.2 |
|
96.6 |
38.9 |
|
55.9 |
73.2 |
|
89.3 |
39.5 |
|
58.3 |
42.8 |
|
53.9 |
40.0 |
|
57.9 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
|
Mid-Day Forecasts
| Updated: 05-17-26 at 11:00 am |
| Goal |
Forecast Day |
Day +1 |
Day +2 |
Day +3 |
| ± 2.0° F |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
| Date |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
| 05-17-26 |
75 |
|
89 |
56 |
|
59 |
83 |
|
78 |
52 |
|
62 |
88 |
|
87 |
55 |
|
65 |
88 |
|
89 |
54 |
|
58 |
| 05-16-26 |
73 |
74.7 |
80 |
48 |
54.5 |
58 |
75 |
|
82 |
55 |
|
56 |
83 |
|
75 |
52 |
|
58 |
89 |
|
84 |
55 |
|
61 |
| 05-15-26 |
80 |
70.5 |
66 |
50 |
45.0 |
46 |
72 |
74.7 |
74 |
48 |
54.5 |
55 |
76 |
|
79 |
53 |
|
56 |
82 |
|
76 |
52 |
|
56 |
| 05-14-26 |
80 |
-148.0 |
64 |
49 |
212.0 |
47 |
80 |
70.5 |
66 |
50 |
45.0 |
48 |
72 |
74.7 |
73 |
48 |
54.5 |
54 |
75 |
|
79 |
52 |
|
58 |
| 05-13-26 |
72 |
-148.0 |
67 |
48 |
212.0 |
51 |
80 |
-148.0 |
66 |
49 |
212.0 |
48 |
80 |
70.5 |
67 |
49 |
45.0 |
49 |
72 |
74.7 |
73 |
48 |
54.5 |
54 |
| 05-12-26 |
80 |
-148.0 |
64 |
52 |
212.0 |
46 |
73 |
-148.0 |
70 |
48 |
212.0 |
50 |
84 |
-148.0 |
69 |
51 |
212.0 |
48 |
83 |
70.5 |
67 |
51 |
45.0 |
49 |
| 05-11-26 |
86 |
-148.0 |
65 |
52 |
212.0 |
43 |
80 |
-148.0 |
66 |
52 |
212.0 |
47 |
73 |
-148.0 |
67 |
49 |
212.0 |
52 |
78 |
-148.0 |
69 |
51 |
212.0 |
47 |
| Results |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
| # Succ |
1 |
|
0 |
0 |
|
1 |
0 |
|
1 |
0 |
|
1 |
0 |
|
1 |
0 |
|
1 |
0 |
|
1 |
0 |
|
1 |
| % Succ |
16.7 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
16.7 |
|
|
20.0 |
|
|
20.0 |
|
|
25.0 |
|
|
25.0 |
|
|
33.3 |
|
|
33.3 |
| Ave Error |
153.5 |
|
143.6 |
109.8 |
|
110.9 |
137.8 |
|
130.2 |
99.7 |
|
98.9 |
116.3 |
|
109.3 |
83.6 |
|
82.1 |
80.4 |
|
74.1 |
57.8 |
|
56.5 |
| Net Error |
153.0 |
|
142.1 |
-108.1 |
|
-109.4 |
136.8 |
|
128.2 |
-97.7 |
|
-97.5 |
115.0 |
|
106.7 |
-81.6 |
|
-80.1 |
78.6 |
|
70.6 |
-53.8 |
|
-53.8 |
| Std Dev |
99.4 |
|
93.9 |
70.6 |
|
73.1 |
92.6 |
|
89.0 |
65.8 |
|
68.0 |
56.8 |
|
53.8 |
38.6 |
|
40.8 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
|
Evening Forecasts
| Updated: 05-16-26 at 5:00 pm |
| Goal |
Forecast Day |
Day +1 |
Day +2 |
Day +3 |
| ± 2.0° F |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
| Date |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
| 05-16-26 |
73 |
|
59 |
48 |
|
84 |
75 |
|
59 |
56 |
|
76 |
82 |
|
58 |
52 |
|
85 |
88 |
|
63 |
55 |
|
86 |
| 05-15-26 |
80 |
45.0 |
50 |
50 |
70.5 |
75 |
72 |
|
55 |
48 |
|
81 |
76 |
|
57 |
53 |
|
76 |
82 |
|
56 |
52 |
|
85 |
| 05-14-26 |
80 |
212.0 |
46 |
49 |
-148.0 |
68 |
79 |
45.0 |
49 |
51 |
70.5 |
74 |
72 |
|
54 |
48 |
|
79 |
75 |
|
56 |
53 |
|
77 |
| 05-13-26 |
72 |
212.0 |
50 |
48 |
-148.0 |
65 |
80 |
212.0 |
49 |
49 |
-148.0 |
67 |
80 |
45.0 |
48 |
49 |
70.5 |
72 |
72 |
|
54 |
49 |
|
75 |
| 05-12-26 |
81 |
212.0 |
46 |
51 |
-148.0 |
70 |
73 |
212.0 |
51 |
48 |
-148.0 |
68 |
83 |
212.0 |
49 |
51 |
-148.0 |
65 |
82 |
45.0 |
49 |
50 |
70.5 |
73 |
| 05-11-26 |
86 |
212.0 |
42 |
52 |
-148.0 |
67 |
80 |
212.0 |
47 |
52 |
-148.0 |
69 |
73 |
212.0 |
51 |
49 |
-148.0 |
70 |
82 |
212.0 |
50 |
51 |
-148.0 |
66 |
| 05-10-26 |
78 |
212.0 |
44 |
51 |
52.5 |
66 |
89 |
212.0 |
43 |
54 |
-148.0 |
66 |
85 |
212.0 |
47 |
52 |
-148.0 |
65 |
72 |
212.0 |
51 |
51 |
-148.0 |
71 |
| Results |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
| # Succ |
0 |
|
0 |
1 |
|
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
|
1 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
| % Succ |
|
|
0.0 |
16.7 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
0.0 |
|
|
0.0 |
|
|
0.0 |
|
|
25.0 |
|
|
0.0 |
|
|
0.0 |
| Ave Error |
116.3 |
|
139.5 |
135.7 |
|
146.7 |
112.0 |
|
132.4 |
162.9 |
|
173.1 |
107.5 |
|
123.0 |
154.4 |
|
161.4 |
102.3 |
|
109.0 |
139.5 |
|
145.2 |
| Net Error |
-104.7 |
|
-137.8 |
128.3 |
|
146.7 |
-98.4 |
|
-130.8 |
155.1 |
|
173.1 |
-90.0 |
|
-121.5 |
143.6 |
|
161.4 |
-77.7 |
|
-106.3 |
125.8 |
|
145.2 |
| Std Dev |
35.9 |
|
59.1 |
69.3 |
|
80.8 |
38.0 |
|
60.4 |
67.6 |
|
80.4 |
36.3 |
|
60.0 |
66.4 |
|
79.9 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
|
Nighttime Forecasts
| Updated: 05-16-26 at 11:00 pm |
| Goal |
Forecast Day |
Day +1 |
Day +2 |
Day +3 |
| ± 2.0° F |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
| Date |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
| 05-16-26 |
48 |
|
58 |
75 |
|
83 |
56 |
|
59 |
82 |
|
78 |
52 |
|
59 |
88 |
|
88 |
55 |
|
64 |
88 |
|
89 |
| 05-15-26 |
50 |
45.0 |
47 |
72 |
70.5 |
74 |
48 |
|
55 |
76 |
|
81 |
53 |
|
59 |
82 |
|
76 |
52 |
|
57 |
87 |
|
84 |
| 05-14-26 |
49 |
212.0 |
47 |
79 |
-148.0 |
68 |
51 |
45.0 |
47 |
72 |
70.5 |
74 |
48 |
|
54 |
75 |
|
80 |
53 |
|
54 |
82 |
|
74 |
| 05-13-26 |
48 |
212.0 |
48 |
80 |
-148.0 |
63 |
49 |
212.0 |
49 |
80 |
-148.0 |
66 |
49 |
45.0 |
49 |
72 |
70.5 |
72 |
49 |
|
54 |
73 |
|
77 |
| 05-12-26 |
51 |
212.0 |
47 |
73 |
-148.0 |
71 |
48 |
212.0 |
51 |
83 |
-148.0 |
66 |
51 |
212.0 |
48 |
82 |
-148.0 |
65 |
50 |
45.0 |
49 |
74 |
70.5 |
73 |
| 05-11-26 |
52 |
212.0 |
44 |
80 |
-148.0 |
67 |
52 |
212.0 |
47 |
73 |
-148.0 |
70 |
49 |
212.0 |
51 |
82 |
-148.0 |
69 |
51 |
212.0 |
51 |
82 |
-148.0 |
67 |
| 05-10-26 |
51 |
212.0 |
46 |
89 |
52.5 |
66 |
54 |
212.0 |
45 |
85 |
-148.0 |
67 |
52 |
212.0 |
47 |
72 |
-148.0 |
67 |
51 |
212.0 |
50 |
74 |
-148.0 |
70 |
| Results |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
| # Succ |
0 |
|
1 |
1 |
|
0 |
0 |
|
1 |
1 |
|
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
1 |
|
1 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
| % Succ |
|
|
16.7 |
16.7 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
20.0 |
20.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
0.0 |
25.0 |
|
25.0 |
|
|
0.0 |
|
|
0.0 |
| Ave Error |
135.7 |
|
138.3 |
157.0 |
|
146.3 |
130.2 |
|
131.6 |
182.9 |
|
172.9 |
122.0 |
|
123.5 |
170.4 |
|
161.6 |
109.0 |
|
109.0 |
151.8 |
|
145.2 |
| Net Error |
-134.0 |
|
-137.7 |
157.0 |
|
146.3 |
-127.8 |
|
-130.8 |
182.9 |
|
172.9 |
-120.0 |
|
-121.5 |
170.4 |
|
161.6 |
-105.7 |
|
-106.3 |
151.8 |
|
145.2 |
| Std Dev |
57.5 |
|
59.9 |
84.9 |
|
81.1 |
59.4 |
|
61.1 |
86.3 |
|
80.1 |
59.0 |
|
59.8 |
84.4 |
|
80.1 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
|