WxSim & NWS Forecast Comparison
National Weather Service (NW), Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)
Morning Forecasts
Updated: 02-04-23 at 6:00 am |
Goal |
Forecast Day |
Day +1 |
Day +2 |
Day +3 |
± 2.0° F |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
Date |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
02-04-23 |
22 |
|
28 |
20 |
|
23 |
45 |
|
49 |
34 |
|
36 |
47 |
|
50 |
30 |
|
30 |
46 |
|
52 |
39 |
|
41 |
02-03-23 |
25 |
33.9 |
31 |
5 |
25.4 |
-3 |
23 |
|
25 |
20 |
|
21 |
44 |
|
50 |
34 |
|
38 |
46 |
|
51 |
29 |
|
26 |
02-02-23 |
38 |
38.7 |
42 |
24 |
21.2 |
25 |
27 |
33.9 |
30 |
5 |
25.4 |
4 |
23 |
|
24 |
20 |
|
20 |
45 |
|
49 |
33 |
|
39 |
02-01-23 |
24 |
37.1 |
40 |
34 |
26.8 |
26 |
20 |
38.7 |
44 |
38 |
21.2 |
25 |
28 |
33.9 |
33 |
29 |
25.4 |
10 |
4 |
|
27 |
23 |
|
23 |
01-31-23 |
39 |
43.3 |
40 |
24 |
32.6 |
23 |
35 |
37.1 |
40 |
23 |
26.8 |
25 |
39 |
38.7 |
45 |
22 |
21.2 |
26 |
32 |
33.9 |
32 |
2 |
25.4 |
9 |
01-30-23 |
51 |
54.4 |
51 |
34 |
36.6 |
36 |
41 |
43.3 |
42 |
20 |
32.6 |
24 |
37 |
37.1 |
40 |
24 |
26.8 |
27 |
39 |
38.7 |
45 |
22 |
21.2 |
31 |
01-29-23 |
55 |
49.8 |
52 |
35 |
36.5 |
41 |
53 |
54.4 |
53 |
34 |
36.6 |
31 |
42 |
43.3 |
39 |
19 |
32.6 |
28 |
33 |
37.1 |
36 |
26 |
26.8 |
28 |
Results |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
# Succ |
1 |
|
0 |
1 |
|
2 |
1 |
|
2 |
0 |
|
1 |
3 |
|
1 |
1 |
|
1 |
2 |
|
2 |
2 |
|
1 |
% Succ |
16.7 |
|
0.0 |
16.7 |
|
33.3 |
20.0 |
|
40.0 |
|
|
20.0 |
75.0 |
|
25.0 |
25.0 |
|
25.0 |
66.7 |
|
66.7 |
66.7 |
|
33.3 |
Ave Error |
5.9 |
|
3.0 |
7.2 |
|
8.0 |
6.3 |
|
3.0 |
11.2 |
|
8.2 |
1.9 |
|
3.6 |
5.2 |
|
6.3 |
2.1 |
|
3.1 |
8.3 |
|
9.1 |
Net Error |
-4.2 |
|
-0.2 |
-3.9 |
|
-5.2 |
-6.3 |
|
0.3 |
-4.5 |
|
-6.7 |
-1.8 |
|
1.0 |
-3.0 |
|
-3.8 |
-1.9 |
|
1.1 |
-7.8 |
|
-1.8 |
Std Dev |
4.0 |
|
0.2 |
6.0 |
|
9.5 |
5.9 |
|
1.1 |
5.8 |
|
6.8 |
2.0 |
|
1.4 |
0.8 |
|
4.6 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
Mid-Day Forecasts
Updated: 02-04-23 at 12:00 pm |
Goal |
Forecast Day |
Day +1 |
Day +2 |
Day +3 |
± 2.0° F |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
Date |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
02-04-23 |
22 |
|
28 |
20 |
|
24 |
45 |
|
48 |
34 |
|
35 |
47 |
|
50 |
30 |
|
30 |
46 |
|
51 |
39 |
|
41 |
02-03-23 |
27 |
33.9 |
27 |
5 |
1.8 |
1 |
23 |
|
26 |
20 |
|
21 |
44 |
|
48 |
34 |
|
37 |
46 |
|
49 |
29 |
|
28 |
02-02-23 |
38 |
38.7 |
42 |
24 |
25.4 |
23 |
27 |
33.9 |
30 |
5 |
1.8 |
9 |
23 |
|
26 |
20 |
|
21 |
45 |
|
50 |
33 |
|
40 |
02-01-23 |
34 |
37.1 |
40 |
20 |
21.2 |
25 |
38 |
38.7 |
44 |
28 |
25.4 |
26 |
29 |
33.9 |
32 |
4 |
1.8 |
9 |
23 |
|
27 |
18 |
|
23 |
01-31-23 |
39 |
43.3 |
40 |
24 |
26.8 |
22 |
35 |
37.1 |
39 |
23 |
21.2 |
25 |
39 |
38.7 |
44 |
22 |
25.4 |
27 |
32 |
33.9 |
32 |
2 |
1.8 |
6 |
01-30-23 |
51 |
54.4 |
55 |
34 |
32.6 |
37 |
41 |
43.3 |
44 |
20 |
26.8 |
24 |
37 |
37.1 |
41 |
24 |
21.2 |
26 |
39 |
38.7 |
45 |
22 |
25.4 |
32 |
01-29-23 |
55 |
49.8 |
54 |
35 |
36.6 |
40 |
53 |
54.4 |
53 |
34 |
32.6 |
32 |
42 |
43.3 |
40 |
19 |
26.8 |
27 |
33 |
37.1 |
36 |
26 |
21.2 |
28 |
Results |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
# Succ |
1 |
|
1 |
4 |
|
1 |
2 |
|
3 |
2 |
|
2 |
3 |
|
1 |
0 |
|
2 |
2 |
|
2 |
1 |
|
0 |
% Succ |
16.7 |
|
16.7 |
66.7 |
|
16.7 |
40.0 |
|
60.0 |
40.0 |
|
40.0 |
75.0 |
|
25.0 |
|
|
50.0 |
66.7 |
|
66.7 |
33.3 |
|
0.0 |
Ave Error |
3.9 |
|
3.5 |
1.9 |
|
3.3 |
2.7 |
|
2.6 |
3.2 |
|
3.0 |
1.7 |
|
3.6 |
4.1 |
|
3.5 |
2.1 |
|
3.1 |
2.8 |
|
5.9 |
Net Error |
-2.2 |
|
0.1 |
-0.4 |
|
0.6 |
-2.7 |
|
0.5 |
0.4 |
|
1.6 |
-1.5 |
|
1.0 |
-1.6 |
|
3.5 |
-1.9 |
|
1.1 |
0.5 |
|
5.9 |
Std Dev |
1.8 |
|
1.8 |
0.8 |
|
1.3 |
2.1 |
|
1.4 |
0.7 |
|
2.2 |
1.6 |
|
0.9 |
0.9 |
|
1.9 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
Evening Forecasts
Updated: 02-04-23 at 6:00 pm |
Goal |
Forecast Day |
Day +1 |
Day +2 |
Day +3 |
± 2.0° F |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Date |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
02-04-23 |
19 |
|
18 |
46 |
|
48 |
35 |
|
36 |
47 |
|
50 |
28 |
|
30 |
46 |
|
50 |
38 |
|
40 |
48 |
|
50 |
02-03-23 |
3 |
1.8 |
1 |
21 |
33.9 |
26 |
20 |
|
22 |
45 |
|
49 |
34 |
|
36 |
46 |
|
51 |
28 |
|
28 |
46 |
|
52 |
02-02-23 |
17 |
25.4 |
23 |
25 |
38.7 |
30 |
5 |
1.8 |
3 |
22 |
33.9 |
25 |
19 |
|
21 |
44 |
|
50 |
33 |
|
39 |
47 |
|
51 |
02-01-23 |
22 |
21.2 |
24 |
38 |
37.1 |
43 |
18 |
25.4 |
26 |
28 |
38.7 |
31 |
5 |
1.8 |
9 |
29 |
33.9 |
27 |
19 |
|
23 |
45 |
|
49 |
01-31-23 |
24 |
26.8 |
25 |
35 |
43.3 |
40 |
22 |
21.2 |
25 |
38 |
37.1 |
42 |
28 |
25.4 |
26 |
28 |
38.7 |
32 |
4 |
1.8 |
6 |
19 |
33.9 |
25 |
01-30-23 |
35 |
32.6 |
36 |
40 |
54.4 |
43 |
21 |
26.8 |
24 |
35 |
43.3 |
40 |
23 |
21.2 |
25 |
38 |
37.1 |
44 |
22 |
25.4 |
33 |
32 |
38.7 |
36 |
01-29-23 |
38 |
36.6 |
40 |
49 |
49.8 |
53 |
34 |
32.6 |
33 |
38 |
54.4 |
41 |
25 |
26.8 |
26 |
33 |
43.3 |
38 |
25 |
21.2 |
27 |
39 |
37.1 |
44 |
Results |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
# Succ |
3 |
|
2 |
2 |
|
0 |
2 |
|
3 |
1 |
|
0 |
2 |
|
2 |
1 |
|
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
1 |
|
0 |
% Succ |
50.0 |
|
33.3 |
33.3 |
|
0.0 |
40.0 |
|
60.0 |
20.0 |
|
0.0 |
50.0 |
|
50.0 |
25.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
0.0 |
33.3 |
|
0.0 |
Ave Error |
2.8 |
|
2.4 |
8.5 |
|
6.7 |
3.7 |
|
1.8 |
9.6 |
|
7.6 |
2.4 |
|
3.1 |
6.7 |
|
6.5 |
3.1 |
|
5.9 |
7.8 |
|
6.2 |
Net Error |
-0.9 |
|
0.8 |
-8.2 |
|
-3.7 |
-1.6 |
|
0.6 |
-9.3 |
|
-5.7 |
1.5 |
|
2.7 |
-6.3 |
|
-3.0 |
0.9 |
|
5.9 |
-6.6 |
|
-1.6 |
Std Dev |
2.5 |
|
0.8 |
4.8 |
|
2.6 |
2.1 |
|
1.1 |
4.1 |
|
1.3 |
0.4 |
|
2.1 |
0.9 |
|
0.2 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
Nighttime Forecasts
Updated: 02-04-23 at 11:00 pm |
Goal |
Forecast Day |
Day +1 |
Day +2 |
Day +3 |
± 2.0° F |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Date |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
02-04-23 |
19 |
|
23 |
46 |
|
47 |
35 |
|
36 |
47 |
|
50 |
28 |
|
30 |
46 |
|
50 |
38 |
|
40 |
48 |
|
50 |
02-03-23 |
3 |
1.8 |
-1 |
21 |
33.9 |
27 |
20 |
|
22 |
45 |
|
50 |
34 |
|
36 |
46 |
|
51 |
28 |
|
28 |
46 |
|
52 |
02-02-23 |
22 |
25.4 |
24 |
25 |
38.7 |
31 |
5 |
1.8 |
3 |
22 |
33.9 |
25 |
19 |
|
21 |
44 |
|
49 |
33 |
|
39 |
47 |
|
51 |
02-01-23 |
22 |
21.2 |
24 |
38 |
37.1 |
44 |
18 |
25.4 |
26 |
28 |
38.7 |
32 |
5 |
1.8 |
8 |
23 |
33.9 |
27 |
23 |
|
23 |
45 |
|
49 |
01-31-23 |
24 |
26.8 |
26 |
35 |
43.3 |
41 |
22 |
21.2 |
25 |
38 |
37.1 |
43 |
28 |
25.4 |
26 |
28 |
38.7 |
32 |
4 |
1.8 |
6 |
19 |
33.9 |
25 |
01-30-23 |
35 |
32.6 |
36 |
40 |
54.4 |
43 |
21 |
26.8 |
24 |
35 |
43.3 |
40 |
23 |
21.2 |
25 |
38 |
37.1 |
43 |
22 |
25.4 |
32 |
32 |
38.7 |
36 |
01-29-23 |
38 |
36.6 |
42 |
49 |
49.8 |
53 |
34 |
32.6 |
34 |
38 |
54.4 |
41 |
25 |
26.8 |
26 |
33 |
43.3 |
38 |
25 |
21.2 |
27 |
39 |
37.1 |
45 |
Results |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
# Succ |
3 |
|
2 |
2 |
|
0 |
2 |
|
3 |
1 |
|
0 |
2 |
|
2 |
1 |
|
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
1 |
|
0 |
% Succ |
50.0 |
|
33.3 |
33.3 |
|
0.0 |
40.0 |
|
60.0 |
20.0 |
|
0.0 |
50.0 |
|
50.0 |
25.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
0.0 |
33.3 |
|
0.0 |
Ave Error |
2.0 |
|
2.8 |
8.5 |
|
6.4 |
3.7 |
|
2.0 |
9.6 |
|
7.6 |
2.4 |
|
2.9 |
8.2 |
|
6.2 |
3.1 |
|
5.5 |
7.8 |
|
6.5 |
Net Error |
-0.1 |
|
1.1 |
-8.2 |
|
-3.0 |
-1.6 |
|
0.8 |
-9.3 |
|
-5.3 |
1.5 |
|
2.5 |
-7.8 |
|
-3.3 |
0.9 |
|
5.5 |
-6.6 |
|
-1.2 |
Std Dev |
0.9 |
|
1.0 |
4.8 |
|
2.7 |
2.1 |
|
1.1 |
4.1 |
|
1.0 |
0.4 |
|
1.7 |
1.4 |
|
0.4 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|