WxSim & NWS Forecast Comparison

National Weather Service (NW), Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)
Morning Forecasts
Updated: 06-21-21 at 11:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
06-21-21 82 ↓   68 67   87 79 ↓   68 57   81 77 ↓   54 59   79 77   56 59   80
06-20-21 62 61.0 63 87 ↓ 83.5 87 70   66 85 ↓   88 68   68 79 ↓   80 56   56 78   84
06-19-21 85 64.6 64 >65 90.9 87 85 61.0 64 70 83.5 86 85   69 >65   88 <85   67 >55   76
06-18-21 81 ↓ 53.4 56 65 ↑ 79.3 84 85 ↓ 64.6 65 66 ↑ 90.9 88 85 ↓ 61.0 67 67 ↑ 83.5 88 86   69 68   90
06-17-21 78 ↓ 50.5 53 58 79.0 82 82 ↓ 53.4 55 66 79.3 85 85 ↓ 64.6 63 66 ↑ 90.9 85 84 61.0 63 67 83.5 85
06-16-21 77 58.8 59 56 78.3 83 78 50.5 54 60 79.0 83 80 53.4 55 65 79.3 84 84 64.6 62 64 90.9 89
06-15-21 78 63.0 62 60 78.3 83 78 58.8 56 57 78.3 83 78 50.5 52 59 79.0 83 80 53.4 54 65 79.3 84
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 1 4 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 2 0 2
% Succ 16.7   66.7     0.0     40.0     0.0     75.0     0.0     66.7     66.7
Ave Error 18.3   1.5 28.4   4.1 23.9   2.3 18.4   4.0 24.6   2.7 18.9   4.8 23.0   1.7 19.2   2.7
Net Error 18.3   1.0 -27.2   2.8 23.9   1.1 -18.4   2.8 24.6   1.9 -18.9   1.8 23.0   0.0 -19.2   1.4
Std Dev 8.9   0.9 28.3   0.6 2.6   0.9 4.3   1.1 0.3   1.7 1.2   0.1 0.0   0.0 0.0   0.0

Mid-Day Forecasts
Updated: 06-21-21 at 6:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
06-21-21 82 ↓   86 67   68 79 ↓   80 57   54 77 ↓   80 59   57 77   81 59   58
06-20-21 86 83.5 86 69 68.5 66 85 ↓   85 68   67 79 ↓   77 56   55 78   81 60   54
06-19-21 85 90.9 86 >65 61.0 63 85 83.5 85 70 68.5 68 85   89 >65   68 <85   77 >55   55
06-18-21 <85 79.3 84 65 64.6 62 85 90.9 87 >65 61.0 64 85 83.5 86 >65 68.5 68 >85   87 >65   68
06-17-21 78 ↓ 79.0 82 58 53.4 54 82 ↓ 79.3 84 66 64.6 62 85 ↓ 90.9 86 66 ↑ 61.0 65 84 83.5 86 67 68.5 65
06-16-21 77 78.3 84 56 50.5 53 78 79.0 83 60 53.4 55 80 79.3 83 65 64.6 61 84 90.9 89 64 61.0 60
06-15-21 79 ↓ 78.3 83 60 58.8 57 78 78.3 84 57 50.5 54 78 79.0 82 59 53.4 56 80 79.3 84 65 64.6 61
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 3 0 3 3 3 1 2 2 3 0 1 1 2 1 2 1
% Succ 50.0   0.0 50.0   50.0 60.0   20.0 40.0   40.0 75.0   0.0 25.0   25.0 66.7   33.3 66.7   33.3
Ave Error 15.1   4.3 12.2   2.0 2.3   4.0 15.4   2.2 2.3   3.5 19.9   2.7 2.7   3.0 1.6   2.7
Net Error -14.1   2.6 -8.1   -0.3 -0.6   2.4 -9.0   1.0 -1.2   1.1 -14.4   0.6 -1.9   1.8 0.6   -2.7
Std Dev 28.1   1.1 21.4   0.7 1.7   1.1 22.2   0.9 0.4   0.5 24.3   1.1 0.0   0.0 0.0   0.0

Evening Forecasts
Updated: 06-20-21 at 12:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
06-20-21 85 ↓   86 68   69 84 ↓   86 67   68 78 ↓   78 57   53 76   82 59   56
06-19-21 87 ↓ 90.9 89 66 61.0 65 86 ↓   87 68   68 83 ↓   88 67   68 80   82 59   56
06-18-21 65 79.3 85 >85 64.6 64 >65 90.9 87 85 61.0 63 >65   87 85   66 >65   87 <85   68
06-17-21 59 79.0 80 81 ↓ 53.4 55 66 79.3 85 85 ↓ 64.6 64 66 ↑ 90.9 85 84 ↓ 61.0 62 67   86 82   65
06-16-21 >55 78.3 81 >75 50.5 54 60 79.0 83 <85 53.4 56 65 79.3 84 85 64.6 62 65 90.9 89 85 61.0 63
06-15-21 59 78.3 82 81 58.8 54 53 78.3 83 78 50.5 56 60 79.0 82 81 53.4 59 66 79.3 84 84 64.6 62
06-14-21 63 71.6 75 77 63.0 60 60 78.3 83 78 58.8 56 58 78.3 84 77 50.5 53 60 79.0 83 80 53.4 55
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 0 2 0 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 2
% Succ     33.3     33.3     0.0     40.0     0.0     25.0     33.3     66.7
Ave Error 24.1   3.1 30.7   2.9 33.4   4.6 28.9   2.7 19.6   4.8 24.4   2.9 19.4   3.5 23.3   2.1
Net Error -24.1   2.4 -7.7   0.1 -33.4   3.0 7.5   1.3 -19.6   1.9 24.4   1.6 -19.4   2.3 23.3   0.3
Std Dev 24.1   1.5 19.5   1.4 28.0   0.6 11.8   1.0 2.6   0.5 0.7   1.0 0.0   0.0 0.0   0.0

Nighttime Forecasts
Updated: 06-20-21 at 6:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
06-20-21 68   67 84 ↓   86 67   68 78 ↓   77 57   54 76 ↓   81 59   55 77   81
06-19-21 66 61.0 64 86 ↓ 90.9 87 68   67 83 ↓   86 67   68 80 ↓   82 59   55 77   83
06-18-21 68 64.6 63 86 ↓ 79.3 85 67 61.0 65 86 ↓ 90.9 87 68   68 84 ↓   86 66   67 82   78
06-17-21 59 ↑ 53.4 59 81 ↓ 79.0 86 66 64.6 64 85 ↓ 79.3 84 66 ↑ 61.0 66 84 ↓ 90.9 89 67   67 82   88
06-16-21 54 ↑ 50.5 55 78 78.3 82 60 53.4 56 81 ↓ 79.0 85 65 64.6 63 84 ↓ 79.3 87 65 61.0 63 84 90.9 88
06-15-21 59 58.8 57 81 78.3 84 53 50.5 55 78 78.3 84 60 53.4 56 81 79.0 84 66 64.6 61 84 79.3 85
06-14-21 <65 63.0 59 >75 71.6 83 <65 58.8 55 >75 78.3 82 >55 50.5 54 >75 78.3 82 60 53.4 55 <85 79.0 83
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 1 2 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 0 0
% Succ 16.7   33.3 33.3   0.0 20.0   20.0 40.0   0.0 25.0   25.0 25.0   25.0 33.3   66.7     0.0
Ave Error 13.5   3.4 14.7   6.2 15.1   3.1 18.2   4.8 15.6   3.2 23.0   4.6 4.0   2.4 30.2   4.2
Net Error -7.6   1.0 -10.9   4.9 -8.5   1.3 -15.2   3.2 -9.6   2.4 -19.6   3.6 4.0   0.0 -27.1   2.3
Std Dev 9.2   1.4 10.6   1.5 8.2   1.2 10.9   0.7 5.3   0.9 8.0   1.3 0.0   0.0 0.0   0.0