College Hills Weather Station - Forecast Comparisons

WxSim & NWS Forecast Comparison

National Weather Service (NW), Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)
Morning Forecasts

Updated: 03-28-20 at 6:00 am

Goal	Forecast Day						Day +1						Day +2						Day +3
± 2.0° F	High			Low			High			Low			High			Low			High			Low
Date	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS
03-28-20	53		54	45		44	52		56	45		50	57		61	41		45	50		51	39		37
03-27-20	<65	65.8	43	>35	42.8	59	<55		39	<45		53	<55		42	45		57	>55		48	<45		59
03-26-20	53 ↓	33.8	53	41 ↑	57.9	41	54	65.8	56	41	42.8	40	51 ↓		53	44 ↑		43	54		54	47		46
03-25-20	45 ↓	45.9	47	36	36.9	33	52	33.8	53	37 ↑	57.9	40	57 ↓	65.8	50	37 ↑	42.8	39	51		53	42		43
03-24-20	52	53.6	53	36	34.3	37	46 ↓	45.9	47	32	36.9	34	52	33.8	52	37	57.9	40	62	65.8	50	35	42.8	38
03-23-20	44	42.6	46	37 ↑	33.3	39	54 ↓	53.6	54	41	34.3	41	47 ↓	45.9	48	37	36.9	37	52	33.8	53	41	57.9	41
03-22-20	<45	45.3	43	>25	32.4	35	<45	42.6	46	>35	33.3	40	55	53.6	55	<45	34.3	43	50	45.9	50	<45	36.9	40
Results	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS
# Succ	3		2	2		0	2		2	1		0	2		1	1		1	0		0	0		0
% Succ	50.0		33.3	33.3		0.0	40.0		40.0	20.0		0.0	50.0		25.0	25.0		25.0			0.0			0.0
Ave Error	22.4		8.2	16.4		8.0	14.6		6.8	13.5		7.4	7.4		9.4	15.3		7.6	8.7		13.0	20.5		8.3
Net Error	-15.5		-0.3	-14.6		1.1	-7.1		2.9	-10.8		-2.0	3.0		1.5	-15.2		-3.2	6.2		2.5	-20.5		-6.2
Std Dev	23.2		8.8	14.8		5.7	6.8		6.3	7.3		5.5	0.7		3.2	4.7		1.9	0.0		0.0	0.0		0.0

Start: Days: Cols: Goal: Ext Stats: Diff Cols: Hilite #s: Time: Show NWS

Mid-Day Forecasts

Updated: 03-28-20 at 12:00 pm

Goal	Forecast Day						Day +1						Day +2						Day +3
± 2.0° F	High			Low			High			Low			High			Low			High			Low
Date	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS
03-28-20	53		55	45		44	52		56	45		49	57		59	41		42	50		50	39		37
03-27-20	<65	65.8	64	>35	38.5	39	<55		54	<45		42	<55		56	45		49	>55		59	<45		43
03-26-20	53 ↓	57.9	55	41 ↑	42.8	42	54	65.8	58	41	38.5	39	51 ↓		53	44 ↑		41	54		54	47		47
03-25-20	47 ↓	45.9	50	34	33.8	33	51 ↓	57.9	52	37 ↑	42.8	40	55	65.8	53	39 ↑	38.5	38	58		54	39		43
03-24-20	52	53.6	53	36	36.9	36	46 ↓	45.9	47	32	33.8	34	52	57.9	52	37	42.8	40	62	65.8	48	35	38.5	38
03-23-20	44	42.6	43	37 ↑	34.3	35	54 ↓	53.6	53	41	36.9	41	47 ↓	45.9	47	37	33.8	38	52	57.9	50	41	42.8	41
03-22-20	<45	45.3	43	>25	33.3	34	<45	42.6	47	>35	34.3	40	55	53.6	53	<45	36.9	43	50	45.9	50	<45	33.8	40
Results	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS
# Succ	3		3	3		6	2		2	1		2	2		2	1		1	0		0	1		2
% Succ	50.0		50.0	50.0		100.0	40.0		40.0	20.0		40.0	50.0		50.0	25.0		25.0			0.0	33.3		66.7
Ave Error	20.0		2.0	12.9		0.7	12.4		4.0	9.7		2.7	4.8		5.1	11.6		3.4	4.6		9.9	13.0		2.8
Net Error	-19.2		-0.5	-11.9		-0.1	-12.2		-1.8	-7.1		1.5	-3.6		-4.6	-9.8		1.8	-1.9		-7.2	-13.0		1.3
Std Dev	23.7		1.3	14.1		0.1	6.0		2.3	5.1		1.5	3.0		3.9	5.6		1.5	0.0		0.0	0.0		0.0

Start: Days: Cols: Goal: Ext Stats: Diff Cols: Hilite #s: Time: Show NWS

Evening Forecasts

Updated: 03-27-20 at 6:00 pm

Goal	Forecast Day						Day +1						Day +2						Day +3
± 2.0° F	Low			High			Low			High			Low			High			Low			High
Date	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS
03-27-20	36		40	51		55	43		43	51 ↓		54	46 ↑		48	58 ↓		61	40		44	50		55
03-26-20	42	42.8	43	57	57.9	60	40		39	51 ↓		52	43 ↑		42	54 ↓		54	45		47	56		59
03-25-20	33 ↑	33.8	33	52 ↓	45.9	53	39 ↑	42.8	41	54	57.9	55	39		38	52 ↓		54	43		42	52		59
03-24-20	36	36.9	53	46 ↓	53.6	36	32	33.8	47	52	45.9	34	37	42.8	52	62	57.9	40	35		48	53		38
03-23-20	37	42.6	36	52	34.3	53	40	36.9	40	47	53.6	47	36 ↑	33.8	39	51 ↓	45.9	50	41	42.8	41	52	57.9	57
03-22-20	29 ↑	33.3	35	44	45.3	47	38	42.6	40	54 ↓	34.3	56	40	36.9	44	47 ↓	53.6	51	38	33.8	40	54	45.9	53
03-21-20	27	32.4	30	41	67.1	43	32	33.3	34	42	45.3	48	38	42.6	41	52	34.3	54	40	36.9	43	50	53.6	48
Results	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS
# Succ	3		3	2		1	2		2	0		0	0		1	0		0	1		1	0		1
% Succ	50.0		50.0	33.3		16.7	40.0		40.0			0.0			25.0			0.0	33.3		33.3			33.3
Ave Error	3.0		4.6	10.0		11.9	2.9		4.3	7.9		9.2	3.9		5.8	8.4		11.1	3.0		4.7	5.9		4.5
Net Error	-3.0		1.4	-2.0		-2.0	-1.7		2.5	2.4		0.6	-1.3		5.0	5.1		0.8	1.8		3.5	-0.5		0.2
Std Dev	1.9		5.5	6.3		7.1	0.6		4.2	2.1		3.3	0.9		1.7	2.1		3.4	0.0		0.0	0.0		0.0

Start: Days: Cols: Goal: Ext Stats: Diff Cols: Hilite #s: Time: Show NWS

Nighttime Forecasts

Updated: 03-27-20 at 11:00 pm

Goal	Forecast Day						Day +1						Day +2						Day +3
± 2.0° F	Low			High			Low			High			Low			High			Low			High
Date	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS
03-27-20	36 ↑		39	51		55	43		44	51 ↓		54	46 ↑		48	58 ↓		60	40		43	50		51
03-26-20	42	42.8	43	57	57.9	59	40		39	51 ↓		53	43 ↑		42	54 ↓		57	45		48	56		59
03-25-20	35	33.8	34	50	45.9	53	39 ↑	42.8	41	54	57.9	55	39		39	52 ↓		53	43		43	52		58
03-24-20	37	36.9	38	46	53.6	47	36	33.8	35	52	45.9	51	37 ↑	42.8	40	57 ↓	57.9	52	37		37	51		55
03-23-20	37	34.3	35	52	42.6	53	40	36.9	38	47	53.6	46	36 ↑	33.8	36	51 ↓	45.9	50	41	42.8	40	52	57.9	50
03-22-20	29 ↑	33.3	32	44	45.3	46	38	34.3	39	54 ↓	42.6	56	40	36.9	44	47 ↓	53.6	49	38	33.8	39	54	45.9	51
03-21-20	27	32.4	31	41	67.1	44	32	33.3	31	42	45.3	44	38	34.3	40	52	42.6	50	40	36.9	43	50	53.6	50
Results	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS
# Succ	3		6	2		2	1		3	0		1	0		0	1		0	1		0	0		0
% Succ	50.0		100.0	33.3		33.3	20.0		60.0			20.0			0.0	25.0		0.0	33.3		0.0			0.0
Ave Error	2.4		0.8	8.2		8.2	2.8		2.2	6.3		6.1	3.7		4.5	5.5		5.5	3.0		4.7	5.9		5.5
Net Error	-1.1		-0.1	-3.7		-1.7	0.8		0.6	0.7		1.3	0.8		3.1	1.8		0.3	1.8		2.8	-0.5		-2.1
Std Dev	1.5		0.4	4.5		4.4	0.5		0.7	1.1		1.6	1.1		0.8	2.3		0.2	0.0		0.0	0.0		0.0

Start: Days: Cols: Goal: Ext Stats: Diff Cols: Hilite #s: Time: Show NWS