WxSim & NWS Forecast Comparison
National Weather Service (NW), Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)
Morning Forecasts
Updated: 04-02-25 at 5:00 am |
Goal |
Forecast Day |
Day +1 |
Day +2 |
Day +3 |
± 2.0° F |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
Date |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
04-02-25 |
30 |
|
52 |
47 |
|
40 |
39 |
|
62 |
60 |
|
51 |
50 |
|
65 |
62 |
|
45 |
43 |
|
55 |
52 |
|
43 |
04-01-25 |
45 |
55.6 |
57 |
53 |
40.3 |
33 |
30 |
|
53 |
48 |
|
41 |
39 |
|
63 |
61 |
|
50 |
49 |
|
62 |
61 |
|
45 |
03-31-25 |
45 |
55.4 |
67 |
60 |
44.2 |
44 |
46 |
55.6 |
57 |
59 |
40.3 |
36 |
31 |
|
53 |
47 |
|
41 |
39 |
|
63 |
62 |
|
53 |
03-30-25 |
48 |
49.3 |
55 |
45 |
41.9 |
43 |
60 |
55.4 |
67 |
46 |
44.2 |
43 |
58 |
55.6 |
56 |
32 |
40.3 |
34 |
48 |
|
53 |
39 |
|
39 |
03-29-25 |
79 |
80.2 |
71 |
39 |
46.4 |
41 |
51 |
49.3 |
54 |
45 |
41.9 |
43 |
60 |
55.4 |
64 |
46 |
44.2 |
41 |
52 |
55.6 |
54 |
32 |
40.3 |
32 |
03-28-25 |
36 |
63.9 |
27 |
58 |
28.9 |
58 |
46 |
80.2 |
44 |
70 |
46.4 |
73 |
44 |
49.3 |
50 |
55 |
41.9 |
60 |
45 |
55.4 |
47 |
61 |
44.2 |
62 |
03-27-25 |
50 |
28.6 |
51 |
37 |
52.2 |
38 |
57 |
63.9 |
57 |
44 |
28.9 |
45 |
70 |
80.2 |
71 |
43 |
46.4 |
43 |
54 |
49.3 |
56 |
44 |
41.9 |
45 |
Results |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
# Succ |
2 |
|
1 |
0 |
|
2 |
1 |
|
1 |
1 |
|
2 |
0 |
|
2 |
1 |
|
0 |
0 |
|
1 |
0 |
|
0 |
% Succ |
33.3 |
|
16.7 |
|
|
33.3 |
20.0 |
|
20.0 |
20.0 |
|
40.0 |
|
|
50.0 |
25.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
33.3 |
|
|
0.0 |
Ave Error |
12.1 |
|
14.5 |
13.9 |
|
9.6 |
11.4 |
|
12.2 |
12.5 |
|
9.9 |
5.6 |
|
4.7 |
6.7 |
|
7.8 |
6.2 |
|
5.6 |
9.1 |
|
9.7 |
Net Error |
-5.0 |
|
-0.8 |
6.4 |
|
0.5 |
-8.9 |
|
-5.1 |
12.5 |
|
7.7 |
-2.1 |
|
0.1 |
0.8 |
|
1.3 |
-3.1 |
|
-1.1 |
3.5 |
|
4.2 |
Std Dev |
9.0 |
|
11.5 |
8.1 |
|
9.7 |
5.4 |
|
5.9 |
6.9 |
|
6.0 |
1.6 |
|
2.2 |
0.8 |
|
0.7 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
Mid-Day Forecasts
Updated: 04-02-25 at 11:00 am |
Goal |
Forecast Day |
Day +1 |
Day +2 |
Day +3 |
± 2.0° F |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
Date |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
04-02-25 |
47 |
|
57 |
39 |
|
44 |
60 |
|
63 |
50 |
|
50 |
62 |
|
63 |
43 |
|
45 |
52 |
|
55 |
42 |
|
44 |
04-01-25 |
53 |
55.6 |
56 |
30 |
30.7 |
33 |
48 |
|
53 |
39 |
|
41 |
61 |
|
62 |
49 |
|
49 |
61 |
|
61 |
42 |
|
45 |
03-31-25 |
59 |
55.4 |
67 |
46 |
40.3 |
44 |
59 |
55.6 |
57 |
31 |
30.7 |
35 |
47 |
|
52 |
39 |
|
41 |
62 |
|
62 |
51 |
|
52 |
03-30-25 |
48 |
49.3 |
54 |
45 |
44.2 |
43 |
60 |
55.4 |
65 |
46 |
40.3 |
44 |
58 |
55.6 |
57 |
32 |
30.7 |
35 |
48 |
|
53 |
39 |
|
39 |
03-29-25 |
79 |
80.2 |
80 |
39 |
41.9 |
42 |
51 |
49.3 |
55 |
45 |
44.2 |
43 |
60 |
55.4 |
63 |
46 |
40.3 |
42 |
52 |
55.6 |
55 |
32 |
30.7 |
31 |
03-28-25 |
60 |
63.9 |
65 |
46 |
46.4 |
48 |
73 |
80.2 |
73 |
42 |
41.9 |
46 |
54 |
49.3 |
58 |
44 |
44.2 |
46 |
63 |
55.4 |
67 |
41 |
40.3 |
40 |
03-27-25 |
50 |
52.2 |
53 |
37 |
28.9 |
39 |
57 |
63.9 |
59 |
44 |
46.4 |
45 |
70 |
80.2 |
72 |
43 |
41.9 |
49 |
54 |
49.3 |
57 |
44 |
44.2 |
45 |
Results |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
# Succ |
2 |
|
4 |
3 |
|
3 |
1 |
|
1 |
3 |
|
2 |
0 |
|
1 |
3 |
|
2 |
0 |
|
1 |
3 |
|
3 |
% Succ |
33.3 |
|
66.7 |
50.0 |
|
50.0 |
20.0 |
|
20.0 |
60.0 |
|
40.0 |
|
|
25.0 |
75.0 |
|
50.0 |
|
|
33.3 |
100.0 |
|
100.0 |
Ave Error |
2.5 |
|
3.1 |
3.1 |
|
3.2 |
4.8 |
|
5.8 |
1.9 |
|
2.9 |
5.5 |
|
6.5 |
2.1 |
|
3.7 |
5.3 |
|
6.6 |
0.7 |
|
0.5 |
Net Error |
-1.3 |
|
3.1 |
1.8 |
|
2.8 |
-0.9 |
|
0.9 |
0.9 |
|
1.9 |
0.4 |
|
2.4 |
2.0 |
|
3.7 |
2.9 |
|
6.2 |
0.6 |
|
0.3 |
Std Dev |
1.0 |
|
4.0 |
2.0 |
|
1.7 |
1.5 |
|
2.6 |
1.9 |
|
1.0 |
1.5 |
|
2.5 |
0.4 |
|
0.3 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
Evening Forecasts
Updated: 04-02-25 at 5:00 pm |
Goal |
Forecast Day |
Day +1 |
Day +2 |
Day +3 |
± 2.0° F |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Date |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
04-02-25 |
46 |
|
41 |
40 |
|
62 |
61 |
|
50 |
50 |
|
60 |
62 |
|
45 |
43 |
|
55 |
53 |
|
43 |
43 |
|
65 |
04-01-25 |
30 |
30.7 |
33 |
47 |
55.6 |
53 |
41 |
|
40 |
60 |
|
63 |
50 |
|
50 |
62 |
|
62 |
42 |
|
44 |
52 |
|
53 |
03-31-25 |
59 |
40.3 |
44 |
44 |
55.4 |
55 |
54 |
30.7 |
34 |
33 |
55.6 |
51 |
47 |
|
41 |
39 |
|
64 |
61 |
|
50 |
50 |
|
61 |
03-30-25 |
46 |
44.2 |
45 |
44 |
49.3 |
69 |
57 |
40.3 |
44 |
42 |
55.4 |
57 |
54 |
30.7 |
34 |
33 |
55.6 |
52 |
49 |
|
38 |
40 |
|
67 |
03-29-25 |
42 |
41.9 |
40 |
51 |
80.2 |
55 |
45 |
44.2 |
44 |
58 |
49.3 |
65 |
41 |
40.3 |
45 |
53 |
55.4 |
55 |
31 |
30.7 |
33 |
47 |
55.6 |
53 |
03-28-25 |
46 |
46.4 |
47 |
75 |
63.9 |
72 |
42 |
41.9 |
46 |
53 |
80.2 |
60 |
45 |
44.2 |
50 |
60 |
49.3 |
64 |
42 |
40.3 |
44 |
53 |
55.4 |
53 |
03-27-25 |
38 |
28.9 |
40 |
57 |
52.2 |
59 |
44 |
46.4 |
45 |
70 |
63.9 |
72 |
44 |
41.9 |
48 |
55 |
80.2 |
59 |
45 |
44.2 |
48 |
61 |
49.3 |
61 |
Results |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
# Succ |
4 |
|
3 |
0 |
|
1 |
2 |
|
2 |
0 |
|
1 |
2 |
|
0 |
0 |
|
1 |
3 |
|
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
% Succ |
66.7 |
|
50.0 |
|
|
16.7 |
40.0 |
|
40.0 |
|
|
20.0 |
50.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
25.0 |
100.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
0.0 |
Ave Error |
5.1 |
|
3.4 |
11.7 |
|
10.5 |
8.7 |
|
2.5 |
15.6 |
|
10.0 |
6.7 |
|
5.0 |
15.2 |
|
10.0 |
0.9 |
|
3.3 |
7.6 |
|
5.6 |
Net Error |
4.8 |
|
2.8 |
-6.4 |
|
1.1 |
7.7 |
|
1.9 |
-9.7 |
|
0.1 |
6.7 |
|
5.0 |
-9.9 |
|
-2.6 |
0.9 |
|
3.3 |
0.2 |
|
2.2 |
Std Dev |
6.6 |
|
1.7 |
7.7 |
|
8.9 |
8.3 |
|
1.2 |
4.5 |
|
5.2 |
8.3 |
|
0.8 |
3.7 |
|
3.2 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
Nighttime Forecasts
Updated: 04-01-25 at 11:00 pm |
Goal |
Forecast Day |
Day +1 |
Day +2 |
Day +3 |
± 2.0° F |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Date |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
04-01-25 |
30 |
|
32 |
47 |
|
53 |
41 |
|
39 |
60 |
|
62 |
50 |
|
51 |
62 |
|
64 |
42 |
|
45 |
52 |
|
54 |
03-31-25 |
44 |
40.3 |
45 |
54 |
55.4 |
58 |
33 |
|
34 |
47 |
|
53 |
39 |
|
41 |
61 |
|
64 |
50 |
|
52 |
61 |
|
63 |
03-30-25 |
44 |
44.2 |
42 |
57 |
49.3 |
65 |
42 |
40.3 |
44 |
54 |
55.4 |
56 |
33 |
|
35 |
49 |
|
52 |
40 |
|
39 |
61 |
|
65 |
03-29-25 |
42 |
41.9 |
39 |
51 |
80.2 |
55 |
45 |
44.2 |
44 |
58 |
49.3 |
65 |
41 |
40.3 |
44 |
53 |
55.4 |
56 |
31 |
|
33 |
47 |
|
51 |
03-28-25 |
46 |
46.4 |
46 |
75 |
63.9 |
71 |
42 |
41.9 |
41 |
53 |
80.2 |
56 |
45 |
44.2 |
44 |
60 |
49.3 |
66 |
42 |
40.3 |
43 |
53 |
55.4 |
54 |
03-27-25 |
38 |
28.9 |
27 |
57 |
52.2 |
58 |
44 |
46.4 |
44 |
70 |
63.9 |
73 |
44 |
41.9 |
50 |
55 |
80.2 |
60 |
45 |
44.2 |
47 |
61 |
49.3 |
62 |
03-26-25 |
32 |
28.6 |
29 |
51 |
53.2 |
50 |
39 |
28.9 |
37 |
57 |
52.2 |
57 |
45 |
46.4 |
44 |
69 |
63.9 |
72 |
44 |
41.9 |
42 |
56 |
80.2 |
53 |
Results |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
# Succ |
3 |
|
3 |
1 |
|
0 |
3 |
|
2 |
1 |
|
1 |
3 |
|
1 |
0 |
|
1 |
2 |
|
1 |
0 |
|
1 |
% Succ |
50.0 |
|
50.0 |
16.7 |
|
0.0 |
60.0 |
|
40.0 |
20.0 |
|
20.0 |
75.0 |
|
25.0 |
|
|
25.0 |
66.7 |
|
33.3 |
|
|
33.3 |
Ave Error |
2.8 |
|
2.1 |
9.4 |
|
9.9 |
3.0 |
|
3.1 |
9.6 |
|
10.9 |
1.3 |
|
3.6 |
10.9 |
|
11.4 |
1.5 |
|
1.9 |
12.8 |
|
13.8 |
Net Error |
2.6 |
|
-0.4 |
-1.5 |
|
0.5 |
2.1 |
|
1.7 |
-1.8 |
|
1.2 |
0.6 |
|
2.3 |
-3.0 |
|
1.3 |
1.5 |
|
1.9 |
-5.0 |
|
-5.3 |
Std Dev |
3.2 |
|
1.3 |
9.0 |
|
7.6 |
1.7 |
|
1.6 |
8.7 |
|
7.8 |
0.3 |
|
0.1 |
4.2 |
|
5.4 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|