WxSim & NWS Forecast Comparison

National Weather Service (NW), Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)
Morning Forecasts
Updated: 04-02-26 at 5:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
04-02-26 44   50 65   40 42   64 76   50 48   61 85   43 53   65 85   42
04-01-26 49 70.2 75 66 53.1 41 45   51 65   39 43   63 75   49 49   66 83   45
03-31-26 53 67.5 71 69 48.0 51 50 70.2 69 68 53.1 41 46   50 65   39 43   63 75   49
03-30-26 56 61.3 66 82 42.6 48 53 67.5 66 68 48.0 51 49 70.2 69 67 53.1 44 47   52 66   41
03-29-26 54 50.5 53 86 19.6 39 55 61.3 60 79 42.6 46 53 67.5 64 71 48.0 51 49 70.2 71 70 53.1 49
03-28-26 50 44.1 47 82 28.0 29 52 50.5 53 85 19.6 39 53 61.3 62 76 42.6 45 48 67.5 67 70 48.0 52
03-27-26 53 55.9 54 84 49.5 32 50 44.1 47 81 28.0 31 50 50.5 53 85 19.6 40 52 61.3 60 75 42.6 43
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 0 1 0 1 1 3 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 3 0 1
% Succ     16.7     16.7 20.0   60.0     0.0 25.0   50.0     0.0     100.0     33.3
Ave Error 8.9   3.4 38.0   9.7 9.7   1.9 37.9   8.2 11.1   2.0 33.9   8.7 16.7   0.9 23.8   2.8
Net Error -5.8   2.8 38.0   -0.1 -6.7   0.3 37.9   3.3 -11.1   -0.4 33.9   4.2 -16.7   -0.3 23.8   0.1
Std Dev 6.2   0.9 18.2   6.3 5.4   0.4 13.1   3.6 5.0   0.4 10.0   0.2 0.0   0.0 0.0   0.0

Mid-Day Forecasts
Updated: 04-02-26 at 5:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
04-02-26 65   50 43   40 75   64 49   50 84   61 54   43 86   65 51   42
04-01-26 66 70.2 78 45 42.6 47 65   59 43   47 75   70 49   55 83   70 52   49
03-31-26 69 67.5 73 50 53.1 54 68 70.2 73 46 42.6 45 65   54 43   43 75   68 47   53
03-29-26 86 61.3 55 55 48.0 40 79 67.5 63 53 53.1 48 71 70.2 64 49 42.6 51 70   73 47   49
03-28-26 82 44.1 47 52 19.6 30 85 61.3 54 53 48.0 38 76 67.5 59 48 53.1 44 70 70.2 68 46 42.6 51
03-27-26 84 55.9 58 50 28.0 33 81 44.1 47 50 19.6 29 85 61.3 52 52 48.0 38 75 67.5 59 51 53.1 42
03-26-26 78 61.0 68 52 49.5 49 82 55.9 56 49 28.0 31 81 44.1 45 51 19.6 29 83 61.3 51 53 48.0 38
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 1 0 0 2 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0
% Succ 16.7   0.0     33.3     20.0 20.0   0.0 25.0   25.0     0.0 33.3   0.0     0.0
Ave Error 18.9   5.3 11.6   4.9 20.1   3.5 12.0   6.0 17.5   6.2 11.7   9.2 9.8   7.0 3.5   9.8
Net Error 17.5   3.2 10.5   2.0 19.2   -1.2 11.9   -0.1 17.5   -5.8 9.2   -0.3 9.7   -7.0 2.1   -4.2
Std Dev 12.9   2.0 11.0   3.1 9.0   1.8 7.3   2.4 8.3   0.0 2.7   0.4 0.0   0.0 0.0   0.0

Evening Forecasts
Updated: 04-01-26 at 5:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
04-01-26 66   44 44   57 66   45 43   68 75   54 48   68 84   47 52   66
03-31-26 69 53.1 52 50 67.5 70 66   44 45   53 65   41 43   64 76   52 48   66
03-30-26 81 48.0 51 53 61.3 72 70 53.1 53 49 67.5 70 67   44 46   53 66   42 43   67
03-29-26 87 42.6 42 56 50.5 64 81 48.0 48 52 61.3 65 69 53.1 51 48 67.5 71 70   46 47   53
03-28-26 82 19.6 31 54 44.1 53 85 42.6 39 53 50.5 61 78 48.0 46 50 61.3 68 71 53.1 52 48 67.5 74
03-27-26 83 28.0 31 50 55.9 47 82 19.6 28 51 44.1 51 85 42.6 38 52 50.5 59 75 48.0 43 50 61.3 67
03-26-26 77 49.5 47 53 61.0 56 82 28.0 32 49 55.9 45 81 19.6 30 51 44.1 51 84 42.6 39 54 50.5 61
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 0 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0
% Succ     33.3     0.0     40.0     0.0     25.0 25.0   0.0     33.3     0.0
Ave Error 39.7   3.6 9.2   8.3 41.7   3.2 8.8   6.9 37.4   4.8 9.8   6.4 28.8   3.2 11.4   7.6
Net Error 39.7   2.2 -4.1   3.6 41.7   1.7 -5.1   2.5 37.4   0.4 -5.6   6.4 28.8   -3.2 -9.1   7.6
Std Dev 15.2   3.6 4.0   3.4 11.8   2.0 5.2   2.9 10.8   1.3 4.9   1.5 0.0   0.0 0.0   0.0

Nighttime Forecasts
Updated: 04-01-26 at 11:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
04-01-26 44   43 66   54 43   43 75   67 48   53 84   65 52   45 82   65
03-31-26 50 53.1 52 66 67.5 72 45   44 65   52 43   40 76   62 48   50 83   66
03-30-26 53 48.0 47 70 61.3 69 49 53.1 50 67 67.5 67 46   42 66   51 43   40 75   62
03-29-26 56 42.6 40 81 50.5 64 52 48.0 48 69 61.3 65 48 53.1 51 70 67.5 69 47   48 65   55
03-28-26 54 19.6 26 85 44.1 52 53 42.6 37 78 50.5 58 50 48.0 47 71 61.3 68 48 53.1 51 69 67.5 74
03-27-26 50 28.0 25 82 55.9 44 51 19.6 28 85 44.1 51 52 42.6 38 75 50.5 59 50 48.0 45 67 61.3 68
03-26-26 53 49.5 47 82 61.0 55 49 28.0 31 81 55.9 46 51 19.6 30 84 44.1 51 54 42.6 39 76 50.5 56
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 0 2 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 0
% Succ     33.3 16.7   0.0     20.0 20.0   20.0 25.0   25.0     25.0 33.3   0.0 33.3   0.0
Ave Error 13.6   2.8 21.5   8.6 14.2   4.0 20.3   5.7 12.0   4.5 19.2   5.9 6.2   2.9 10.9   6.2
Net Error 12.5   -0.6 21.0   2.6 12.5   0.5 20.1   1.5 9.4   0.7 19.2   5.9 2.8   -2.9 10.9   6.2
Std Dev 10.7   1.8 13.2   3.0 6.6   2.0 11.0   2.6 3.4   1.2 8.3   2.2 0.0   0.0 0.0   0.0