WxSim & NWS Forecast Comparison
National Weather Service (NW), Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)
Morning Forecasts
Updated: 03-19-24 at 5:00 am |
Goal |
Forecast Day |
Day +1 |
Day +2 |
Day +3 |
± 2.0° F |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
Date |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
03-19-24 |
47 |
|
50 |
37 |
|
38 |
52 |
|
55 |
29 |
|
30 |
43 |
|
46 |
26 |
|
24 |
43 |
|
46 |
36 |
|
35 |
03-18-24 |
50 |
49.8 |
53 |
33 |
43.5 |
31 |
47 |
|
50 |
37 |
|
38 |
53 |
|
55 |
30 |
|
33 |
44 |
|
47 |
27 |
|
24 |
03-17-24 |
59 |
63.3 |
62 |
36 |
45.1 |
37 |
50 |
49.8 |
53 |
32 |
43.5 |
32 |
47 |
|
49 |
34 |
|
37 |
49 |
|
55 |
29 |
|
29 |
03-16-24 |
54 |
56.3 |
58 |
42 |
37.0 |
43 |
58 |
63.3 |
60 |
37 |
45.1 |
38 |
50 |
49.8 |
52 |
32 |
43.5 |
33 |
45 |
|
48 |
33 |
|
31 |
03-15-24 |
62 |
72.0 |
66 |
38 |
48.4 |
41 |
53 |
56.3 |
58 |
42 |
37.0 |
43 |
56 |
63.3 |
61 |
36 |
45.1 |
39 |
49 |
49.8 |
52 |
31 |
43.5 |
32 |
03-14-24 |
35 |
69.1 |
64 |
63 |
36.5 |
46 |
44 |
72.0 |
61 |
60 |
48.4 |
41 |
39 |
56.3 |
57 |
54 |
37.0 |
43 |
41 |
63.3 |
59 |
56 |
45.1 |
39 |
03-13-24 |
60 |
57.4 |
62 |
39 |
34.5 |
41 |
64 |
69.1 |
61 |
44 |
36.5 |
46 |
59 |
72.0 |
66 |
41 |
48.4 |
40 |
52 |
56.3 |
56 |
41 |
37.0 |
43 |
Results |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
# Succ |
1 |
|
2 |
0 |
|
0 |
1 |
|
1 |
0 |
|
0 |
1 |
|
1 |
0 |
|
0 |
1 |
|
1 |
0 |
|
0 |
% Succ |
16.7 |
|
33.3 |
|
|
0.0 |
20.0 |
|
20.0 |
|
|
0.0 |
25.0 |
|
25.0 |
|
|
0.0 |
33.3 |
|
33.3 |
|
|
0.0 |
Ave Error |
8.9 |
|
3.7 |
11.0 |
|
8.3 |
8.4 |
|
5.5 |
8.7 |
|
8.3 |
9.5 |
|
2.8 |
11.3 |
|
7.8 |
9.1 |
|
2.3 |
9.1 |
|
7.9 |
Net Error |
-8.0 |
|
-0.5 |
1.0 |
|
-1.0 |
-8.3 |
|
-3.5 |
0.9 |
|
-2.1 |
-9.4 |
|
-1.4 |
-2.8 |
|
-4.8 |
-9.1 |
|
-0.8 |
0.8 |
|
-3.9 |
Std Dev |
11.4 |
|
1.7 |
6.8 |
|
2.0 |
4.5 |
|
2.2 |
2.1 |
|
1.8 |
4.6 |
|
0.3 |
0.1 |
|
1.4 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
Mid-Day Forecasts
Updated: 03-18-24 at 11:00 am |
Goal |
Forecast Day |
Day +1 |
Day +2 |
Day +3 |
± 2.0° F |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
Date |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
03-18-24 |
50 |
|
55 |
33 |
|
32 |
47 |
|
51 |
37 |
|
38 |
53 |
|
55 |
30 |
|
33 |
44 |
|
50 |
27 |
|
25 |
03-17-24 |
59 |
63.3 |
65 |
36 |
43.5 |
39 |
50 |
|
53 |
32 |
|
31 |
47 |
|
50 |
34 |
|
38 |
49 |
|
54 |
29 |
|
30 |
03-16-24 |
54 |
56.3 |
60 |
42 |
45.1 |
45 |
58 |
63.3 |
59 |
37 |
43.5 |
37 |
50 |
|
53 |
32 |
|
32 |
45 |
|
48 |
33 |
|
32 |
03-15-24 |
64 |
72.0 |
69 |
38 |
37.0 |
41 |
53 |
56.3 |
58 |
42 |
45.1 |
43 |
56 |
63.3 |
60 |
36 |
43.5 |
39 |
49 |
|
52 |
31 |
|
32 |
03-14-24 |
64 |
69.1 |
68 |
44 |
48.4 |
48 |
60 |
72.0 |
63 |
39 |
37.0 |
40 |
54 |
56.3 |
58 |
41 |
45.1 |
43 |
56 |
63.3 |
59 |
37 |
43.5 |
39 |
03-13-24 |
60 |
57.4 |
65 |
39 |
36.5 |
41 |
64 |
69.1 |
64 |
44 |
48.4 |
46 |
59 |
72.0 |
65 |
41 |
37.0 |
40 |
52 |
56.3 |
57 |
41 |
45.1 |
44 |
03-12-24 |
63 |
63.5 |
61 |
38 |
34.5 |
41 |
59 |
57.4 |
63 |
41 |
36.5 |
42 |
59 |
69.1 |
64 |
44 |
48.4 |
48 |
56 |
72.0 |
63 |
42 |
37.0 |
41 |
Results |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
# Succ |
1 |
|
2 |
1 |
|
2 |
1 |
|
1 |
1 |
|
0 |
0 |
|
1 |
0 |
|
1 |
0 |
|
1 |
0 |
|
1 |
% Succ |
16.7 |
|
33.3 |
16.7 |
|
33.3 |
20.0 |
|
20.0 |
20.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
25.0 |
|
|
25.0 |
|
|
33.3 |
|
|
33.3 |
Ave Error |
3.8 |
|
3.3 |
3.7 |
|
3.3 |
5.5 |
|
5.1 |
4.1 |
|
3.9 |
8.2 |
|
4.3 |
5.0 |
|
2.5 |
9.2 |
|
4.7 |
5.2 |
|
3.2 |
Net Error |
-2.9 |
|
1.1 |
-1.3 |
|
1.7 |
-4.8 |
|
-2.2 |
-1.5 |
|
-0.5 |
-8.2 |
|
-3.4 |
-3.0 |
|
-1.0 |
-9.2 |
|
-4.2 |
-1.9 |
|
-0.5 |
Std Dev |
2.0 |
|
2.1 |
2.0 |
|
1.9 |
3.1 |
|
2.3 |
1.5 |
|
1.5 |
0.4 |
|
0.5 |
1.3 |
|
1.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
Evening Forecasts
Updated: 03-18-24 at 5:00 pm |
Goal |
Forecast Day |
Day +1 |
Day +2 |
Day +3 |
± 2.0° F |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Date |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
03-18-24 |
50 |
|
31 |
33 |
|
49 |
48 |
|
38 |
38 |
|
55 |
52 |
|
32 |
31 |
|
49 |
44 |
|
25 |
25 |
|
48 |
03-17-24 |
60 |
43.5 |
40 |
37 |
63.3 |
54 |
50 |
|
31 |
33 |
|
50 |
46 |
|
40 |
36 |
|
55 |
51 |
|
33 |
29 |
|
47 |
03-16-24 |
45 |
45.1 |
44 |
55 |
56.3 |
61 |
35 |
43.5 |
38 |
45 |
63.3 |
52 |
35 |
|
33 |
45 |
|
47 |
35 |
|
34 |
45 |
|
49 |
03-15-24 |
38 |
37.0 |
42 |
53 |
72.0 |
57 |
42 |
45.1 |
44 |
56 |
56.3 |
60 |
37 |
43.5 |
38 |
49 |
63.3 |
53 |
32 |
|
32 |
45 |
|
46 |
03-14-24 |
44 |
48.4 |
49 |
61 |
69.1 |
65 |
38 |
37.0 |
40 |
53 |
72.0 |
57 |
42 |
45.1 |
42 |
56 |
56.3 |
61 |
37 |
43.5 |
38 |
48 |
63.3 |
53 |
03-13-24 |
38 |
36.5 |
41 |
61 |
57.4 |
64 |
43 |
48.4 |
47 |
60 |
69.1 |
65 |
40 |
37.0 |
42 |
52 |
72.0 |
57 |
41 |
45.1 |
44 |
55 |
56.3 |
60 |
03-12-24 |
38 |
34.5 |
42 |
54 |
63.5 |
63 |
40 |
36.5 |
42 |
61 |
57.4 |
65 |
44 |
48.4 |
48 |
58 |
69.1 |
64 |
41 |
37.0 |
41 |
53 |
72.0 |
54 |
Results |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
# Succ |
3 |
|
2 |
1 |
|
1 |
1 |
|
2 |
1 |
|
0 |
0 |
|
1 |
1 |
|
0 |
0 |
|
1 |
1 |
|
0 |
% Succ |
50.0 |
|
33.3 |
16.7 |
|
16.7 |
20.0 |
|
40.0 |
20.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
25.0 |
25.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
33.3 |
33.3 |
|
0.0 |
Ave Error |
4.5 |
|
3.7 |
11.3 |
|
6.7 |
4.3 |
|
3.3 |
10.1 |
|
8.3 |
4.3 |
|
3.5 |
11.4 |
|
8.8 |
4.9 |
|
3.5 |
11.9 |
|
10.7 |
Net Error |
3.0 |
|
2.2 |
-10.1 |
|
-2.9 |
-2.5 |
|
0.1 |
-8.6 |
|
-3.8 |
-2.8 |
|
-1.0 |
-11.4 |
|
-6.4 |
-2.2 |
|
-0.9 |
-11.9 |
|
-8.2 |
Std Dev |
5.5 |
|
1.8 |
8.7 |
|
3.8 |
2.4 |
|
1.4 |
7.0 |
|
3.9 |
1.1 |
|
1.0 |
1.4 |
|
0.8 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
Nighttime Forecasts
Updated: 03-18-24 at 11:00 pm |
Goal |
Forecast Day |
Day +1 |
Day +2 |
Day +3 |
± 2.0° F |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Date |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
03-18-24 |
33 |
|
32 |
48 |
|
50 |
38 |
|
38 |
52 |
|
56 |
31 |
|
27 |
44 |
|
47 |
25 |
|
25 |
43 |
|
47 |
03-17-24 |
38 |
43.5 |
40 |
50 |
63.3 |
54 |
33 |
|
32 |
46 |
|
50 |
36 |
|
39 |
51 |
|
55 |
29 |
|
33 |
43 |
|
48 |
03-16-24 |
41 |
45.1 |
43 |
58 |
56.3 |
61 |
37 |
43.5 |
37 |
49 |
63.3 |
53 |
33 |
|
33 |
46 |
|
49 |
35 |
|
35 |
49 |
|
51 |
03-15-24 |
38 |
37.0 |
42 |
53 |
72.0 |
58 |
42 |
45.1 |
43 |
56 |
56.3 |
59 |
37 |
43.5 |
37 |
49 |
63.3 |
52 |
32 |
|
32 |
45 |
|
47 |
03-14-24 |
44 |
48.4 |
48 |
61 |
69.1 |
67 |
38 |
37.0 |
41 |
53 |
72.0 |
57 |
42 |
45.1 |
43 |
56 |
56.3 |
60 |
37 |
43.5 |
38 |
48 |
63.3 |
51 |
03-13-24 |
38 |
36.5 |
39 |
61 |
57.4 |
63 |
43 |
48.4 |
46 |
60 |
69.1 |
62 |
40 |
37.0 |
40 |
52 |
72.0 |
56 |
41 |
45.1 |
43 |
55 |
56.3 |
59 |
03-12-24 |
38 |
34.5 |
40 |
54 |
63.5 |
64 |
40 |
36.5 |
44 |
61 |
57.4 |
64 |
44 |
48.4 |
48 |
58 |
69.1 |
65 |
41 |
37.0 |
42 |
53 |
72.0 |
55 |
Results |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
# Succ |
2 |
|
1 |
1 |
|
1 |
1 |
|
0 |
1 |
|
0 |
0 |
|
1 |
1 |
|
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
1 |
|
0 |
% Succ |
33.3 |
|
16.7 |
16.7 |
|
16.7 |
20.0 |
|
0.0 |
20.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
25.0 |
25.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
0.0 |
33.3 |
|
0.0 |
Ave Error |
3.3 |
|
3.2 |
9.2 |
|
6.0 |
3.9 |
|
4.5 |
9.3 |
|
8.3 |
4.3 |
|
3.0 |
11.4 |
|
8.8 |
4.9 |
|
4.2 |
11.9 |
|
10.7 |
Net Error |
-1.3 |
|
1.2 |
-7.4 |
|
-2.4 |
-2.1 |
|
0.1 |
-7.8 |
|
-4.6 |
-2.8 |
|
-1.5 |
-11.4 |
|
-6.9 |
-2.2 |
|
-0.9 |
-11.9 |
|
-8.9 |
Std Dev |
1.6 |
|
1.5 |
5.8 |
|
3.9 |
1.8 |
|
1.4 |
6.3 |
|
4.0 |
1.1 |
|
1.8 |
1.4 |
|
1.3 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|