WxSim & NWS Forecast Comparison
National Weather Service (NW), Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)
Morning Forecasts
Updated: 04-13-21 at 11:00 pm |
Goal |
Forecast Day |
Day +1 |
Day +2 |
Day +3 |
± 2.0° F |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Date |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
04-13-21 |
<65 |
|
40 |
45 |
|
62 |
<65 |
|
44 |
45 |
|
66 |
<55 |
|
47 |
40 |
|
56 |
50 |
|
38 |
>35 |
|
52 |
04-12-21 |
43 ↑ |
42.4 |
43 |
52 ↓ |
53.2 |
56 |
41 |
|
42 |
56 |
|
63 |
42 |
|
45 |
57 |
|
66 |
43 |
|
44 |
54 |
|
53 |
04-11-21 |
58 ↓ |
52.2 |
49 |
45 |
58.6 |
60 |
51 |
42.4 |
46 |
41 ↑ |
53.2 |
56 |
53 ↓ |
|
44 |
42 |
|
54 |
55 |
|
41 |
41 |
|
53 |
04-10-21 |
44 |
44.4 |
42 |
62 ↓ |
65.5 |
66 |
50 |
52.2 |
50 |
59 ↓ |
58.6 |
61 |
44 ↑ |
42.4 |
45 |
54 ↓ |
53.2 |
56 |
41 |
|
44 |
59 |
|
61 |
04-09-21 |
42 |
41.4 |
41 |
58 ↓ |
57.2 |
66 |
45 |
44.4 |
48 |
61 ↓ |
65.5 |
68 |
49 ↑ |
52.2 |
49 |
59 ↓ |
58.6 |
60 |
46 |
42.4 |
44 |
55 |
53.2 |
56 |
04-08-21 |
44 |
39.6 |
42 |
65 |
69.6 |
65 |
42 |
41.4 |
41 |
59 |
57.2 |
64 |
44 |
44.4 |
46 |
62 |
65.5 |
65 |
47 |
52.2 |
50 |
57 |
58.6 |
69 |
04-07-21 |
43 |
37.6 |
42 |
65 |
70.0 |
65 |
44 |
39.6 |
44 |
62 |
69.6 |
64 |
42 |
41.4 |
43 |
57 |
57.2 |
61 |
44 |
44.4 |
45 |
56 |
65.5 |
60 |
Results |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
# Succ |
3 |
|
2 |
2 |
|
2 |
2 |
|
1 |
2 |
|
0 |
3 |
|
2 |
3 |
|
2 |
1 |
|
2 |
2 |
|
0 |
% Succ |
50.0 |
|
33.3 |
33.3 |
|
33.3 |
40.0 |
|
20.0 |
40.0 |
|
0.0 |
75.0 |
|
50.0 |
75.0 |
|
50.0 |
33.3 |
|
66.7 |
66.7 |
|
0.0 |
Ave Error |
2.9 |
|
2.2 |
4.8 |
|
3.9 |
3.3 |
|
2.8 |
5.3 |
|
4.0 |
1.5 |
|
2.3 |
1.2 |
|
2.1 |
3.1 |
|
1.5 |
4.3 |
|
6.2 |
Net Error |
2.7 |
|
0.2 |
-4.5 |
|
0.7 |
2.4 |
|
1.8 |
-4.4 |
|
1.8 |
-0.4 |
|
0.7 |
-0.6 |
|
1.9 |
-0.7 |
|
0.0 |
-3.1 |
|
2.6 |
Std Dev |
2.1 |
|
1.1 |
4.2 |
|
2.7 |
2.7 |
|
0.6 |
3.8 |
|
1.1 |
0.1 |
|
0.2 |
0.2 |
|
0.3 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
Mid-Day Forecasts
Updated: 04-13-21 at 6:00 am |
Goal |
Forecast Day |
Day +1 |
Day +2 |
Day +3 |
± 2.0° F |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
Date |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
04-13-21 |
<65 |
|
62 |
45 |
|
46 |
<65 |
|
67 |
45 |
|
47 |
<55 |
|
56 |
40 |
|
38 |
50 |
|
53 |
>35 |
|
41 |
04-12-21 |
43 ↑ |
53.2 |
57 |
52 ↓ |
40.3 |
42 |
41 |
|
62 |
56 |
|
45 |
42 |
|
67 |
57 |
|
44 |
43 |
|
54 |
54 |
|
34 |
04-11-21 |
58 ↓ |
58.6 |
62 |
45 |
42.4 |
47 |
51 |
53.2 |
56 |
41 ↑ |
40.3 |
42 |
53 ↓ |
|
54 |
42 |
|
44 |
55 |
|
62 |
41 |
|
45 |
04-10-21 |
62 ↓ |
65.5 |
66 |
50 |
52.2 |
50 |
59 ↓ |
58.6 |
59 |
44 ↑ |
42.4 |
48 |
54 ↓ |
53.2 |
57 |
41 ↑ |
40.3 |
42 |
59 |
|
62 |
44 |
|
44 |
04-09-21 |
58 ↓ |
57.2 |
66 |
45 |
44.4 |
48 |
61 ↓ |
65.5 |
69 |
49 ↑ |
52.2 |
50 |
59 ↓ |
58.6 |
60 |
46 |
42.4 |
43 |
55 |
53.2 |
53 |
42 |
40.3 |
43 |
04-08-21 |
67 ↓ |
69.6 |
66 |
42 |
41.4 |
43 |
59 |
57.2 |
65 |
44 |
44.4 |
45 |
62 |
65.5 |
65 |
47 |
52.2 |
51 |
57 |
58.6 |
69 |
44 |
42.4 |
45 |
04-07-21 |
66 ↓ |
70.0 |
61 |
44 |
39.6 |
43 |
62 |
69.6 |
63 |
42 |
41.4 |
43 |
57 |
57.2 |
63 |
44 |
44.4 |
46 |
56 |
65.5 |
66 |
45 |
52.2 |
50 |
Results |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
# Succ |
2 |
|
1 |
2 |
|
2 |
2 |
|
1 |
4 |
|
3 |
3 |
|
2 |
2 |
|
4 |
2 |
|
2 |
2 |
|
0 |
% Succ |
33.3 |
|
16.7 |
33.3 |
|
33.3 |
40.0 |
|
20.0 |
80.0 |
|
60.0 |
75.0 |
|
50.0 |
50.0 |
|
100.0 |
66.7 |
|
66.7 |
66.7 |
|
0.0 |
Ave Error |
3.6 |
|
4.9 |
3.7 |
|
2.9 |
3.3 |
|
4.2 |
1.3 |
|
2.3 |
1.2 |
|
2.9 |
2.5 |
|
1.3 |
4.3 |
|
3.7 |
3.5 |
|
2.5 |
Net Error |
-3.4 |
|
0.7 |
3.0 |
|
2.1 |
-2.4 |
|
1.6 |
-0.1 |
|
1.5 |
-0.6 |
|
2.6 |
-0.3 |
|
0.7 |
-3.1 |
|
3.6 |
-1.3 |
|
1.0 |
Std Dev |
3.2 |
|
2.6 |
3.8 |
|
1.1 |
1.5 |
|
1.9 |
0.9 |
|
1.5 |
0.2 |
|
0.5 |
0.9 |
|
0.2 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
Evening Forecasts
Updated: 04-13-21 at 12:00 pm |
Goal |
Forecast Day |
Day +1 |
Day +2 |
Day +3 |
± 2.0° F |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
Date |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
04-13-21 |
45 |
|
63 |
<65 |
|
45 |
45 |
|
68 |
<55 |
|
46 |
>35 |
|
56 |
50 |
|
41 |
>35 |
|
57 |
55 |
|
43 |
04-12-21 |
<45 |
53.2 |
58 |
>55 |
40.3 |
40 |
45 |
|
62 |
<65 |
|
45 |
45 |
|
66 |
<55 |
|
45 |
40 |
|
53 |
50 |
|
37 |
04-11-21 |
43 ↑ |
58.6 |
64 |
52 ↓ |
42.4 |
46 |
41 |
53.2 |
56 |
56 |
40.3 |
40 |
42 |
|
61 |
57 |
|
45 |
43 |
|
59 |
54 |
|
46 |
04-10-21 |
51 |
65.5 |
69 |
58 ↓ |
52.2 |
50 |
45 |
58.6 |
59 |
53 |
42.4 |
47 |
41 |
53.2 |
57 |
56 |
40.3 |
44 |
42 |
|
59 |
55 |
|
41 |
04-09-21 |
47 |
57.2 |
65 |
61 ↓ |
44.4 |
48 |
50 |
65.5 |
67 |
59 ↓ |
52.2 |
50 |
43 |
58.6 |
60 |
54 |
42.4 |
45 |
41 |
53.2 |
55 |
59 |
40.3 |
43 |
04-08-21 |
<45 |
69.6 |
70 |
>55 |
41.4 |
45 |
45 |
57.2 |
66 |
<65 |
44.4 |
47 |
>45 |
65.5 |
66 |
>55 |
52.2 |
51 |
>45 |
58.6 |
62 |
55 |
42.4 |
41 |
04-07-21 |
44 |
70.0 |
67 |
64 ↓ |
39.6 |
42 |
43 |
69.6 |
64 |
57 ↓ |
41.4 |
42 |
44 |
57.2 |
63 |
60 ↓ |
44.4 |
45 |
47 |
65.5 |
67 |
57 |
52.2 |
50 |
Results |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
# Succ |
0 |
|
1 |
0 |
|
1 |
0 |
|
2 |
0 |
|
2 |
0 |
|
2 |
0 |
|
2 |
0 |
|
2 |
0 |
|
1 |
% Succ |
|
|
16.7 |
|
|
16.7 |
|
|
40.0 |
|
|
40.0 |
|
|
50.0 |
|
|
50.0 |
|
|
66.7 |
|
|
33.3 |
Ave Error |
31.5 |
|
4.2 |
23.0 |
|
2.6 |
16.0 |
|
3.8 |
18.6 |
|
2.1 |
26.6 |
|
2.9 |
23.8 |
|
2.0 |
29.8 |
|
2.2 |
12.0 |
|
2.1 |
Net Error |
-31.5 |
|
3.2 |
-4.2 |
|
1.8 |
-16.0 |
|
1.6 |
0.9 |
|
1.1 |
-26.6 |
|
2.9 |
-2.3 |
|
1.4 |
-29.8 |
|
2.2 |
12.0 |
|
-0.3 |
Std Dev |
22.1 |
|
2.2 |
13.9 |
|
1.2 |
2.0 |
|
1.9 |
6.5 |
|
1.4 |
7.2 |
|
0.5 |
4.0 |
|
0.8 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
Nighttime Forecasts
Updated: 04-13-21 at 6:00 pm |
Goal |
Forecast Day |
Day +1 |
Day +2 |
Day +3 |
± 2.0° F |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Date |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
04-13-21 |
45 ↑ |
|
46 |
62 ↓ |
|
67 |
45 ↑ |
|
47 |
51 ↓ |
|
56 |
37 |
|
39 |
51 |
|
53 |
39 |
|
40 |
56 |
|
59 |
04-12-21 |
41 |
40.3 |
40 |
57 ↓ |
53.2 |
62 |
44 ↑ |
|
42 |
61 |
|
66 |
43 |
|
47 |
51 |
|
56 |
39 |
|
38 |
50 |
|
49 |
04-11-21 |
43 ↑ |
42.4 |
44 |
52 ↓ |
58.6 |
58 |
41 |
40.3 |
44 |
56 |
53.2 |
62 |
42 |
|
46 |
57 |
|
64 |
43 |
|
49 |
54 |
|
57 |
04-10-21 |
51 |
52.2 |
49 |
58 ↓ |
65.5 |
60 |
45 |
42.4 |
46 |
53 |
58.6 |
56 |
41 |
40.3 |
44 |
56 |
53.2 |
54 |
42 |
|
42 |
55 |
|
51 |
04-09-21 |
44 ↑ |
44.4 |
44 |
61 ↓ |
57.2 |
67 |
50 |
52.2 |
50 |
59 ↓ |
65.5 |
59 |
43 |
42.4 |
48 |
54 |
58.6 |
59 |
41 |
40.3 |
43 |
59 |
53.2 |
63 |
04-08-21 |
42 ↑ |
41.4 |
43 |
58 ↓ |
69.6 |
66 |
44 ↑ |
44.4 |
47 |
61 ↓ |
57.2 |
66 |
48 |
52.2 |
50 |
59 ↓ |
65.5 |
59 |
46 |
42.4 |
43 |
55 |
58.6 |
55 |
04-07-21 |
44 |
39.6 |
45 |
64 ↓ |
70.0 |
65 |
43 |
41.4 |
43 |
57 ↓ |
69.6 |
64 |
44 |
44.4 |
44 |
60 ↓ |
57.2 |
65 |
47 |
52.2 |
52 |
57 |
65.5 |
66 |
Results |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
# Succ |
5 |
|
4 |
0 |
|
1 |
3 |
|
1 |
0 |
|
0 |
3 |
|
1 |
0 |
|
2 |
1 |
|
2 |
0 |
|
1 |
% Succ |
83.3 |
|
66.7 |
|
|
16.7 |
60.0 |
|
20.0 |
|
|
0.0 |
75.0 |
|
25.0 |
|
|
50.0 |
33.3 |
|
66.7 |
|
|
33.3 |
Ave Error |
1.3 |
|
2.1 |
6.6 |
|
5.6 |
1.5 |
|
2.7 |
6.3 |
|
6.5 |
1.5 |
|
3.0 |
4.2 |
|
3.9 |
3.2 |
|
1.2 |
6.0 |
|
4.6 |
Net Error |
0.8 |
|
0.8 |
-4.0 |
|
0.7 |
0.5 |
|
1.9 |
-3.6 |
|
0.6 |
-0.8 |
|
1.7 |
-1.4 |
|
0.6 |
-0.3 |
|
1.0 |
-2.1 |
|
2.2 |
Std Dev |
0.6 |
|
1.1 |
2.6 |
|
3.1 |
0.7 |
|
0.6 |
1.6 |
|
2.0 |
0.4 |
|
0.4 |
0.7 |
|
1.5 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|