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 Details for NW Suffolk Extreme Heat Warning  +4 additional alerts
 SW Suffolk
 Details for SW Suffolk Extreme Heat Warning  +5 additional alerts
 NE Suffolk
 Details for NE Suffolk Extreme Heat Warning  +4 additional alerts
 SE Suffolk
 Details for SE Suffolk Extreme Heat Warning  +5 additional alerts
 Suffolk
 Details for Suffolk Extreme Heat Warning  +5 additional alerts
 Nassau
 Details for Nassau Extreme Heat Warning  +5 additional alerts

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WxSim & NWS Forecast Comparison

National Weather Service (NW), Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)
Morning Forecasts
Updated: 07-01-26 at 5:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
07-01-26 53   91 78   69 53   95 79   73 53   97 83   74 55   94 85   70
06-30-26 54 85.1 89 83 61.9 69 53   92 79   70 53   94 76   72 53   98 83   74
06-29-26 53 88.2 87 84 60.6 64 55 85.1 88 82 61.9 68 54   92 78   73 54   96 78   74
06-28-26 50 83.1 84 82 66.9 65 53 88.2 88 85 60.6 65 54 85.1 86 81 61.9 68 53   91 78   71
06-27-26 57 83.1 84 72 68.2 66 50 83.1 86 80 66.9 65 53 88.2 88 84 60.6 67 54 85.1 88 80 61.9 70
06-26-26 55 80.1 87 76 67.5 65 57 83.1 86 71 68.2 66 50 83.1 86 80 66.9 64 53 88.2 87 84 60.6 65
06-25-26 55 83.5 86 80 55.2 65 55 80.1 83 76 67.5 66 57 83.1 83 72 68.2 64 51 83.1 82 81 66.9 63
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 0 3 0 1 0 1 0 2 0 3 0 0 0 2 0 0
% Succ     50.0     16.7     20.0     40.0     75.0     0.0     66.7     0.0
Ave Error 29.9   2.7 16.1   4.5 29.9   2.4 13.8   3.2 31.4   1.0 14.9   4.9 32.8   1.7 18.5   5.5
Net Error -29.9   2.3 16.1   2.3 -29.9   2.3 13.8   1.0 -31.4   0.9 14.9   1.4 -32.8   0.2 18.5   2.9
Std Dev 3.6   2.2 6.9   2.0 2.8   1.0 5.5   1.5 0.1   0.1 2.1   0.6 0.0   0.0 0.0   0.0

Mid-Day Forecasts
Updated: 07-01-26 at 11:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
07-01-26 78   92 53   72 79   95 53   75 83   97 55   75 85   95 56   71
06-30-26 83 85.1 92 53 68.4 69 79   92 53   72 76   96 53   75 83   98 55   75
06-29-26 84 88.2 92 55 61.9 67 82 85.1 90 54 68.4 69 78   92 54   73 78   96 55   76
06-28-26 82 83.1 85 53 60.6 66 84 88.2 87 54 61.9 66 81 85.1 88 53 68.4 69 77   90 52   69
06-27-26 72 83.1 87 50 66.9 64 81 83.1 84 53 60.6 64 85 88.2 84 54 61.9 67 82 85.1 87 53 68.4 69
06-26-26 76 80.1 85 57 68.2 65 71 83.1 84 50 66.9 66 80 83.1 84 53 60.6 64 84 88.2 86 54 61.9 64
06-25-26 80 83.5 89 55 67.5 65 76 80.1 87 57 68.2 62 72 83.1 77 51 66.9 64 81 83.1 83 53 60.6 63
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 1 1 0 1 0 3 0 2 0 1 0 1 0 2 0 1
% Succ 16.7   16.7     16.7     60.0     40.0     25.0     25.0     66.7     33.3
Ave Error 4.4   4.5 11.8   3.3 5.1   3.0 11.6   3.0 5.4   3.5 11.7   3.0 3.1   1.4 10.3   1.7
Net Error -4.4   4.5 -11.8   0.4 -5.1   2.5 -11.6   0.2 -5.4   -1.6 -11.7   1.6 -3.1   -0.1 -10.3   1.7
Std Dev 3.2   1.5 3.7   1.6 1.7   1.5 2.7   1.2 0.6   0.3 1.9   1.2 0.0   0.0 0.0   0.0

Evening Forecasts
Updated: 07-01-26 at 5:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
07-01-26 78   71 53   95 80   75 54   97 84   75 55   95 86   72 56   90
06-30-26 83 68.4 66 53 85.1 91 79   71 53   95 77   75 53   97 82   75 55   93
06-29-26 84 61.9 65 54 88.2 90 84 68.4 70 53 85.1 94 78   72 53   97 76   76 53   98
06-28-26 82 60.6 65 53 83.1 87 84 61.9 65 54 88.2 88 81 68.4 69 53 85.1 91 77   68 52   94
06-27-26 72 66.9 66 50 83.1 85 81 60.6 64 53 83.1 87 85 61.9 66 54 88.2 87 82 68.4 67 53 85.1 92
06-26-26 73 68.2 66 57 80.1 80 68 66.9 65 50 83.1 85 77 60.6 65 53 83.1 86 84 61.9 65 54 88.2 85
06-25-26 81 67.5 63 55 83.5 85 73 68.2 66 57 80.1 82 70 66.9 64 50 83.1 85 80 60.6 65 53 83.1 86
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 0 1 0 4 1 2 0 3 0 1 0 2 0 1 0 0
% Succ     16.7     66.7 20.0   40.0     60.0     25.0     50.0     33.3     0.0
Ave Error 13.6   2.9 30.2   2.5 12.8   2.4 30.5   3.4 13.8   3.0 32.4   3.0 18.4   3.0 32.1   4.3
Net Error 13.6   -0.4 -30.2   2.5 12.8   0.8 -30.5   3.3 13.8   1.6 -32.4   2.4 18.4   2.0 -32.1   2.2
Std Dev 6.9   1.1 3.6   1.8 5.5   0.6 1.8   2.9 0.6   1.2 0.1   1.5 0.0   0.0 0.0   0.0

Nighttime Forecasts
Updated: 06-30-26 at 11:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
06-30-26 53   69 79   92 53   71 77   96 53   75 82   98 55   74 85   91
06-29-26 54 61.9 65 84 88.2 90 53   69 78   92 53   71 76   95 53   74 83   98
06-28-26 53 60.6 61 84 83.1 87 54 61.9 64 81 88.2 88 53   69 77   91 52   71 77   95
06-27-26 50 66.9 66 81 83.1 83 53 60.6 65 85 83.1 87 54 61.9 66 82 88.2 88 53   71 77   94
06-26-26 57 68.2 66 68 80.1 83 50 66.9 65 77 83.1 86 53 60.6 64 84 83.1 87 54 61.9 65 81 88.2 89
06-25-26 55 67.5 67 73 83.5 87 57 68.2 67 70 80.1 83 50 66.9 65 80 83.1 85 53 60.6 65 84 83.1 85
06-24-26 55 55.2 59 81 85.1 86 55 67.5 64 76 83.5 85 56 68.2 63 72 80.1 76 51 66.9 64 81 83.1 81
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 1 3 1 3 0 2 1 2 0 1 1 2 0 0 1 2
% Succ 16.7   50.0 16.7   50.0     40.0 20.0   40.0     25.0 25.0   50.0     0.0 33.3   66.7
Ave Error 9.4   1.8 5.7   2.2 11.2   2.6 6.6   2.3 11.2   3.7 4.6   2.5 10.5   3.5 3.4   1.6
Net Error -9.4   0.6 -5.4   2.2 -11.2   0.0 -5.8   2.2 -11.2   0.1 -4.1   0.4 -10.5   1.5 -2.8   0.2
Std Dev 3.5   1.0 4.1   1.3 3.4   0.9 2.1   1.2 1.6   0.2 0.8   1.2 0.0   0.0 0.0   0.0