WxSim & NWS Forecast Comparison
National Weather Service (NW), Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)
Morning Forecasts
Updated: 07-03-25 at 5:00 am |
Goal |
Forecast Day |
Day +1 |
Day +2 |
Day +3 |
± 2.0° F |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
Date |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
07-03-25 |
68 |
|
90 |
88 |
|
64 |
67 |
|
88 |
85 |
|
62 |
66 |
|
86 |
84 |
|
68 |
69 |
|
90 |
85 |
|
71 |
07-02-25 |
71 |
81.7 |
68 |
81 |
72.0 |
85 |
68 |
|
68 |
88 |
|
88 |
67 |
|
64 |
84 |
|
88 |
66 |
|
63 |
83 |
|
86 |
07-01-25 |
85 |
72.0 |
90 |
70 |
88.2 |
70 |
81 |
81.7 |
83 |
68 |
72.0 |
68 |
86 |
|
88 |
67 |
|
64 |
84 |
|
87 |
66 |
|
62 |
06-30-25 |
67 |
90.7 |
86 |
86 |
65.3 |
71 |
71 |
72.0 |
87 |
85 |
88.2 |
72 |
71 |
81.7 |
88 |
85 |
72.0 |
68 |
68 |
|
87 |
85 |
|
67 |
06-29-25 |
70 |
91.9 |
90 |
88 |
63.7 |
67 |
69 |
90.7 |
88 |
86 |
65.3 |
70 |
72 |
72.0 |
88 |
86 |
88.2 |
71 |
71 |
81.7 |
89 |
85 |
72.0 |
69 |
06-28-25 |
64 |
82.2 |
86 |
82 |
63.7 |
70 |
71 |
91.9 |
90 |
88 |
63.7 |
69 |
70 |
90.7 |
90 |
85 |
65.3 |
71 |
73 |
72.0 |
89 |
86 |
88.2 |
72 |
06-27-25 |
63 |
73.8 |
80 |
68 |
63.5 |
66 |
65 |
82.2 |
90 |
81 |
63.7 |
70 |
70 |
91.9 |
87 |
85 |
63.7 |
68 |
66 |
90.7 |
88 |
85 |
65.3 |
71 |
Results |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
# Succ |
0 |
|
1 |
0 |
|
0 |
2 |
|
2 |
0 |
|
0 |
1 |
|
1 |
0 |
|
0 |
1 |
|
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
% Succ |
|
|
16.7 |
|
|
0.0 |
40.0 |
|
40.0 |
|
|
0.0 |
25.0 |
|
25.0 |
|
|
0.0 |
33.3 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
0.0 |
Ave Error |
16.4 |
|
8.1 |
15.8 |
|
8.2 |
12.3 |
|
5.7 |
13.9 |
|
7.3 |
13.3 |
|
7.0 |
14.1 |
|
7.8 |
12.1 |
|
9.0 |
11.6 |
|
8.3 |
Net Error |
-12.1 |
|
1.3 |
9.8 |
|
2.1 |
-12.3 |
|
3.9 |
11.0 |
|
-0.8 |
-13.3 |
|
4.2 |
13.0 |
|
-2.8 |
-11.5 |
|
7.2 |
10.2 |
|
-4.5 |
Std Dev |
4.7 |
|
5.7 |
5.1 |
|
5.1 |
8.4 |
|
4.8 |
7.2 |
|
4.4 |
1.3 |
|
0.3 |
0.5 |
|
1.9 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
Mid-Day Forecasts
Updated: 07-03-25 at 11:00 am |
Goal |
Forecast Day |
Day +1 |
Day +2 |
Day +3 |
± 2.0° F |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
Date |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
07-03-25 |
68 |
|
93 |
88 |
|
65 |
67 |
|
88 |
85 |
|
62 |
66 |
|
85 |
84 |
|
68 |
69 |
|
88 |
85 |
|
70 |
07-02-25 |
81 |
81.7 |
84 |
68 |
69.1 |
67 |
88 |
|
89 |
67 |
|
64 |
84 |
|
88 |
66 |
|
63 |
83 |
|
85 |
69 |
|
68 |
07-01-25 |
85 |
88.2 |
88 |
70 |
72.0 |
69 |
81 |
81.7 |
80 |
68 |
69.1 |
67 |
86 |
|
87 |
67 |
|
66 |
84 |
|
86 |
66 |
|
64 |
06-30-25 |
67 |
90.7 |
92 |
86 |
72.0 |
72 |
71 |
88.2 |
87 |
85 |
72.0 |
71 |
71 |
81.7 |
87 |
85 |
69.1 |
68 |
68 |
|
86 |
85 |
|
66 |
06-29-25 |
89 |
91.9 |
91 |
69 |
65.3 |
67 |
86 |
90.7 |
89 |
72 |
72.0 |
72 |
86 |
88.2 |
91 |
71 |
72.0 |
71 |
85 |
81.7 |
88 |
69 |
69.1 |
69 |
06-28-25 |
81 |
82.2 |
84 |
71 |
63.7 |
69 |
88 |
91.9 |
89 |
70 |
65.3 |
67 |
85 |
90.7 |
89 |
73 |
72.0 |
71 |
86 |
88.2 |
88 |
70 |
72.0 |
69 |
06-27-25 |
68 |
73.8 |
81 |
65 |
63.7 |
64 |
81 |
82.2 |
88 |
70 |
63.7 |
70 |
85 |
91.9 |
87 |
66 |
65.3 |
68 |
85 |
90.7 |
88 |
71 |
72.0 |
71 |
Results |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
# Succ |
2 |
|
4 |
3 |
|
3 |
2 |
|
3 |
2 |
|
3 |
0 |
|
1 |
3 |
|
3 |
0 |
|
1 |
3 |
|
2 |
% Succ |
33.3 |
|
66.7 |
50.0 |
|
50.0 |
40.0 |
|
60.0 |
40.0 |
|
60.0 |
|
|
25.0 |
75.0 |
|
75.0 |
|
|
33.3 |
100.0 |
|
66.7 |
Ave Error |
6.3 |
|
2.3 |
4.9 |
|
2.1 |
5.5 |
|
2.7 |
5.0 |
|
2.2 |
6.4 |
|
3.7 |
4.7 |
|
1.5 |
3.7 |
|
3.1 |
1.0 |
|
1.4 |
Net Error |
-6.3 |
|
1.9 |
3.9 |
|
0.4 |
-5.5 |
|
-0.3 |
4.6 |
|
1.0 |
-6.4 |
|
0.4 |
4.2 |
|
-0.1 |
-1.5 |
|
1.1 |
-1.0 |
|
-1.4 |
Std Dev |
8.0 |
|
1.1 |
4.3 |
|
1.6 |
5.7 |
|
0.9 |
4.6 |
|
1.1 |
2.2 |
|
0.8 |
5.6 |
|
0.2 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
Evening Forecasts
Updated: 07-03-25 at 5:00 pm |
Goal |
Forecast Day |
Day +1 |
Day +2 |
Day +3 |
± 2.0° F |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Date |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
07-03-25 |
88 |
|
64 |
67 |
|
87 |
85 |
|
61 |
66 |
|
86 |
83 |
|
68 |
69 |
|
90 |
85 |
|
71 |
71 |
|
90 |
07-02-25 |
81 |
69.1 |
68 |
66 |
81.7 |
90 |
89 |
|
65 |
67 |
|
90 |
85 |
|
63 |
66 |
|
84 |
83 |
|
68 |
69 |
|
89 |
07-01-25 |
86 |
72.0 |
67 |
71 |
88.2 |
81 |
81 |
69.1 |
68 |
69 |
81.7 |
87 |
86 |
|
66 |
66 |
|
86 |
84 |
|
62 |
65 |
|
84 |
06-30-25 |
88 |
72.0 |
70 |
71 |
90.7 |
89 |
84 |
72.0 |
69 |
71 |
88.2 |
84 |
83 |
69.1 |
68 |
68 |
81.7 |
87 |
86 |
|
66 |
67 |
|
86 |
06-29-25 |
89 |
65.3 |
68 |
67 |
91.9 |
88 |
85 |
72.0 |
71 |
71 |
90.7 |
89 |
85 |
72.0 |
71 |
71 |
88.2 |
88 |
85 |
69.1 |
68 |
68 |
81.7 |
87 |
06-28-25 |
70 |
63.7 |
70 |
87 |
82.2 |
90 |
68 |
65.3 |
68 |
86 |
91.9 |
88 |
71 |
72.0 |
73 |
86 |
90.7 |
91 |
71 |
72.0 |
72 |
86 |
88.2 |
88 |
06-27-25 |
64 |
63.7 |
64 |
82 |
73.8 |
87 |
70 |
63.7 |
70 |
86 |
82.2 |
88 |
69 |
65.3 |
67 |
85 |
91.9 |
88 |
71 |
72.0 |
72 |
84 |
90.7 |
88 |
Results |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
# Succ |
1 |
|
3 |
0 |
|
1 |
0 |
|
2 |
0 |
|
1 |
1 |
|
4 |
0 |
|
2 |
2 |
|
3 |
0 |
|
1 |
% Succ |
16.7 |
|
50.0 |
|
|
16.7 |
|
|
40.0 |
|
|
20.0 |
25.0 |
|
100.0 |
|
|
50.0 |
66.7 |
|
100.0 |
|
|
33.3 |
Ave Error |
12.0 |
|
2.9 |
15.1 |
|
7.0 |
9.2 |
|
2.8 |
11.9 |
|
4.2 |
7.9 |
|
1.2 |
10.6 |
|
2.4 |
6.0 |
|
0.4 |
7.5 |
|
2.7 |
Net Error |
12.0 |
|
0.2 |
-10.8 |
|
2.8 |
9.2 |
|
0.8 |
-10.3 |
|
0.3 |
7.4 |
|
0.2 |
-10.6 |
|
0.4 |
4.6 |
|
-0.4 |
-7.5 |
|
0.8 |
Std Dev |
5.6 |
|
1.8 |
6.2 |
|
2.6 |
2.4 |
|
1.1 |
4.3 |
|
1.2 |
3.0 |
|
0.1 |
1.5 |
|
1.4 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
Nighttime Forecasts
Updated: 07-02-25 at 11:00 pm |
Goal |
Forecast Day |
Day +1 |
Day +2 |
Day +3 |
± 2.0° F |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Date |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
07-02-25 |
66 |
|
66 |
89 |
|
89 |
67 |
|
65 |
85 |
|
88 |
66 |
|
63 |
83 |
|
85 |
69 |
|
68 |
85 |
|
90 |
07-01-25 |
71 |
72.0 |
68 |
81 |
88.2 |
85 |
69 |
|
68 |
86 |
|
88 |
66 |
|
64 |
84 |
|
88 |
65 |
|
63 |
82 |
|
86 |
06-30-25 |
71 |
72.0 |
70 |
84 |
90.7 |
92 |
71 |
72.0 |
69 |
83 |
88.2 |
85 |
68 |
|
68 |
86 |
|
88 |
67 |
|
67 |
84 |
|
87 |
06-29-25 |
67 |
65.3 |
66 |
85 |
91.9 |
89 |
71 |
72.0 |
73 |
85 |
90.7 |
88 |
71 |
72.0 |
71 |
85 |
88.2 |
88 |
68 |
|
67 |
85 |
|
89 |
06-28-25 |
70 |
63.7 |
69 |
87 |
82.2 |
89 |
68 |
65.3 |
66 |
86 |
91.9 |
87 |
71 |
72.0 |
71 |
86 |
90.7 |
88 |
71 |
72.0 |
72 |
86 |
88.2 |
89 |
06-27-25 |
64 |
63.7 |
62 |
82 |
73.8 |
86 |
70 |
63.7 |
70 |
86 |
82.2 |
90 |
69 |
65.3 |
67 |
85 |
91.9 |
89 |
71 |
72.0 |
71 |
84 |
90.7 |
85 |
06-26-25 |
74 |
63.5 |
62 |
61 |
81.9 |
79 |
68 |
63.7 |
65 |
62 |
73.8 |
88 |
82 |
63.7 |
69 |
70 |
82.2 |
88 |
80 |
65.3 |
67 |
66 |
91.9 |
87 |
Results |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
# Succ |
4 |
|
4 |
0 |
|
1 |
2 |
|
3 |
0 |
|
0 |
2 |
|
3 |
0 |
|
1 |
2 |
|
3 |
0 |
|
1 |
% Succ |
66.7 |
|
66.7 |
|
|
16.7 |
40.0 |
|
60.0 |
|
|
0.0 |
50.0 |
|
75.0 |
|
|
25.0 |
66.7 |
|
100.0 |
|
|
33.3 |
Ave Error |
3.5 |
|
2.5 |
9.1 |
|
4.9 |
3.1 |
|
2.5 |
6.5 |
|
6.6 |
6.0 |
|
2.3 |
6.8 |
|
2.9 |
5.6 |
|
0.9 |
11.6 |
|
3.8 |
Net Error |
2.8 |
|
-0.5 |
-4.8 |
|
1.9 |
2.3 |
|
1.3 |
-5.0 |
|
2.2 |
5.0 |
|
1.3 |
-6.8 |
|
0.0 |
4.2 |
|
0.2 |
-11.6 |
|
-3.3 |
Std Dev |
2.4 |
|
1.5 |
2.4 |
|
3.6 |
1.3 |
|
1.1 |
0.7 |
|
2.4 |
2.5 |
|
0.6 |
1.8 |
|
1.4 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|