WxSim & NWS Forecast Comparison
National Weather Service (NW), Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)
Morning Forecasts
Updated: 05-22-25 at 5:00 am |
Goal |
Forecast Day |
Day +1 |
Day +2 |
Day +3 |
± 2.0° F |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
Date |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
05-22-25 |
56 |
|
57 |
44 |
|
44 |
59 |
|
61 |
49 |
|
46 |
64 |
|
63 |
51 |
|
47 |
67 |
|
69 |
51 |
|
52 |
05-21-25 |
59 |
56.7 |
60 |
49 |
51.8 |
47 |
57 |
|
58 |
46 |
|
44 |
62 |
|
62 |
49 |
|
45 |
64 |
|
61 |
51 |
|
48 |
05-20-25 |
68 |
68.5 |
69 |
51 |
46.8 |
52 |
59 |
56.7 |
62 |
49 |
51.8 |
49 |
58 |
|
60 |
47 |
|
46 |
60 |
|
58 |
49 |
|
46 |
05-19-25 |
72 |
73.0 |
74 |
50 |
55.6 |
48 |
70 |
68.5 |
68 |
51 |
46.8 |
49 |
59 |
56.7 |
59 |
49 |
51.8 |
46 |
59 |
|
55 |
47 |
|
44 |
05-18-25 |
73 |
75.9 |
73 |
54 |
56.8 |
55 |
71 |
73.0 |
74 |
50 |
55.6 |
47 |
68 |
68.5 |
70 |
50 |
46.8 |
49 |
60 |
56.7 |
59 |
49 |
51.8 |
46 |
05-17-25 |
73 |
77.5 |
79 |
58 |
59.2 |
59 |
72 |
75.9 |
72 |
55 |
56.8 |
54 |
73 |
73.0 |
74 |
50 |
55.6 |
47 |
67 |
68.5 |
70 |
50 |
46.8 |
49 |
05-16-25 |
57 |
72.0 |
58 |
74 |
61.2 |
75 |
59 |
77.5 |
61 |
77 |
59.2 |
78 |
59 |
75.9 |
58 |
71 |
56.8 |
71 |
54 |
73.0 |
54 |
71 |
55.6 |
73 |
Results |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
# Succ |
2 |
|
3 |
1 |
|
2 |
2 |
|
2 |
1 |
|
0 |
2 |
|
2 |
0 |
|
0 |
1 |
|
1 |
0 |
|
0 |
% Succ |
33.3 |
|
50.0 |
16.7 |
|
33.3 |
40.0 |
|
40.0 |
20.0 |
|
0.0 |
50.0 |
|
50.0 |
|
|
0.0 |
33.3 |
|
33.3 |
|
|
0.0 |
Ave Error |
4.4 |
|
3.9 |
4.9 |
|
5.6 |
5.6 |
|
5.4 |
6.4 |
|
7.0 |
4.9 |
|
5.7 |
6.5 |
|
7.7 |
7.9 |
|
7.6 |
7.1 |
|
8.5 |
Net Error |
-3.6 |
|
-1.8 |
0.8 |
|
0.8 |
-4.1 |
|
-2.9 |
2.4 |
|
1.4 |
-3.8 |
|
-3.3 |
2.3 |
|
0.5 |
-5.7 |
|
-5.1 |
5.3 |
|
4.6 |
Std Dev |
2.3 |
|
2.1 |
2.0 |
|
2.8 |
2.9 |
|
3.0 |
1.9 |
|
3.0 |
1.3 |
|
1.7 |
1.8 |
|
1.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
Mid-Day Forecasts
Updated: 05-21-25 at 11:00 am |
Goal |
Forecast Day |
Day +1 |
Day +2 |
Day +3 |
± 2.0° F |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
Date |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
05-21-25 |
56 |
|
61 |
49 |
|
49 |
57 |
|
60 |
46 |
|
47 |
62 |
|
65 |
49 |
|
47 |
64 |
|
62 |
51 |
|
47 |
05-20-25 |
68 |
68.5 |
69 |
51 |
51.8 |
51 |
59 |
|
60 |
49 |
|
47 |
58 |
|
57 |
47 |
|
45 |
60 |
|
60 |
49 |
|
45 |
05-19-25 |
72 |
73.0 |
73 |
50 |
46.8 |
44 |
70 |
68.5 |
68 |
51 |
51.8 |
49 |
59 |
|
59 |
49 |
|
46 |
59 |
|
56 |
47 |
|
46 |
05-18-25 |
76 |
75.9 |
77 |
54 |
55.6 |
52 |
71 |
73.0 |
73 |
50 |
46.8 |
48 |
68 |
68.5 |
69 |
50 |
51.8 |
50 |
60 |
|
58 |
49 |
|
47 |
05-17-25 |
73 |
77.5 |
83 |
58 |
56.8 |
59 |
72 |
75.9 |
72 |
55 |
55.6 |
51 |
73 |
73.0 |
73 |
50 |
46.8 |
50 |
67 |
68.5 |
73 |
50 |
51.8 |
52 |
05-16-25 |
73 |
72.0 |
75 |
58 |
59.2 |
62 |
76 |
77.5 |
77 |
58 |
56.8 |
58 |
73 |
75.9 |
67 |
54 |
55.6 |
54 |
71 |
73.0 |
71 |
51 |
46.8 |
48 |
05-15-25 |
68 |
65.5 |
59 |
57 |
61.2 |
72 |
72 |
72.0 |
59 |
58 |
59.2 |
75 |
73 |
77.5 |
61 |
58 |
56.8 |
78 |
73 |
75.9 |
58 |
52 |
55.6 |
71 |
Results |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
# Succ |
4 |
|
3 |
4 |
|
1 |
4 |
|
3 |
4 |
|
2 |
2 |
|
2 |
3 |
|
2 |
2 |
|
1 |
1 |
|
2 |
% Succ |
66.7 |
|
50.0 |
66.7 |
|
16.7 |
80.0 |
|
60.0 |
80.0 |
|
40.0 |
50.0 |
|
50.0 |
75.0 |
|
50.0 |
66.7 |
|
33.3 |
33.3 |
|
66.7 |
Ave Error |
1.6 |
|
2.8 |
2.0 |
|
3.8 |
1.8 |
|
3.6 |
1.4 |
|
5.1 |
2.0 |
|
6.5 |
2.0 |
|
7.0 |
2.1 |
|
8.1 |
3.2 |
|
5.6 |
Net Error |
-0.4 |
|
0.6 |
-0.6 |
|
1.4 |
-1.2 |
|
-3.6 |
0.4 |
|
2.2 |
-2.0 |
|
-6.2 |
0.3 |
|
5.3 |
-2.1 |
|
-5.1 |
-0.4 |
|
5.6 |
Std Dev |
1.4 |
|
2.0 |
0.9 |
|
1.5 |
1.0 |
|
2.1 |
0.9 |
|
2.1 |
0.7 |
|
3.0 |
0.1 |
|
2.6 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
Evening Forecasts
Updated: 05-21-25 at 5:00 pm |
Goal |
Forecast Day |
Day +1 |
Day +2 |
Day +3 |
± 2.0° F |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Date |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
05-21-25 |
48 |
|
46 |
54 |
|
57 |
46 |
|
44 |
61 |
|
65 |
49 |
|
45 |
65 |
|
63 |
51 |
|
46 |
68 |
|
67 |
05-20-25 |
49 |
51.8 |
50 |
57 |
68.5 |
60 |
50 |
|
47 |
58 |
|
57 |
46 |
|
44 |
61 |
|
64 |
50 |
|
46 |
64 |
|
61 |
05-19-25 |
49 |
46.8 |
46 |
67 |
73.0 |
69 |
52 |
51.8 |
49 |
59 |
68.5 |
59 |
49 |
|
45 |
57 |
|
55 |
48 |
|
43 |
61 |
|
58 |
05-18-25 |
55 |
55.6 |
51 |
73 |
75.9 |
74 |
49 |
46.8 |
46 |
70 |
73.0 |
69 |
51 |
51.8 |
51 |
60 |
68.5 |
61 |
50 |
|
49 |
59 |
|
57 |
05-17-25 |
58 |
56.8 |
57 |
73 |
77.5 |
71 |
55 |
55.6 |
54 |
72 |
75.9 |
72 |
50 |
46.8 |
46 |
68 |
73.0 |
70 |
51 |
51.8 |
48 |
60 |
68.5 |
60 |
05-16-25 |
59 |
59.2 |
59 |
75 |
72.0 |
75 |
58 |
56.8 |
58 |
72 |
77.5 |
67 |
55 |
55.6 |
53 |
72 |
75.9 |
71 |
50 |
46.8 |
48 |
68 |
73.0 |
68 |
05-15-25 |
58 |
61.2 |
59 |
74 |
65.5 |
72 |
59 |
59.2 |
59 |
77 |
72.0 |
75 |
59 |
56.8 |
61 |
71 |
77.5 |
78 |
54 |
55.6 |
58 |
71 |
75.9 |
71 |
Results |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
# Succ |
3 |
|
4 |
0 |
|
1 |
4 |
|
4 |
0 |
|
0 |
2 |
|
2 |
0 |
|
1 |
2 |
|
1 |
0 |
|
0 |
% Succ |
50.0 |
|
66.7 |
|
|
16.7 |
80.0 |
|
80.0 |
|
|
0.0 |
50.0 |
|
50.0 |
|
|
25.0 |
66.7 |
|
33.3 |
|
|
0.0 |
Ave Error |
1.7 |
|
1.6 |
6.1 |
|
5.1 |
0.9 |
|
1.3 |
5.4 |
|
6.2 |
1.7 |
|
2.1 |
6.0 |
|
4.0 |
1.9 |
|
2.5 |
6.1 |
|
6.1 |
Net Error |
-0.6 |
|
-1.6 |
-2.2 |
|
-1.9 |
0.6 |
|
-0.8 |
-3.4 |
|
-5.0 |
1.0 |
|
0.0 |
-6.0 |
|
-3.7 |
0.3 |
|
-0.1 |
-6.1 |
|
-6.1 |
Std Dev |
0.9 |
|
1.5 |
2.9 |
|
2.2 |
0.7 |
|
0.7 |
2.2 |
|
2.0 |
0.5 |
|
0.7 |
1.3 |
|
1.8 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
Nighttime Forecasts
Updated: 05-21-25 at 11:00 pm |
Goal |
Forecast Day |
Day +1 |
Day +2 |
Day +3 |
± 2.0° F |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Date |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
05-21-25 |
48 |
|
46 |
54 |
|
57 |
46 |
|
45 |
61 |
|
59 |
49 |
|
46 |
65 |
|
63 |
51 |
|
47 |
68 |
|
67 |
05-20-25 |
51 |
51.8 |
52 |
57 |
68.5 |
63 |
50 |
|
48 |
58 |
|
59 |
46 |
|
46 |
61 |
|
63 |
50 |
|
47 |
64 |
|
61 |
05-19-25 |
49 |
46.8 |
45 |
67 |
73.0 |
69 |
52 |
51.8 |
52 |
59 |
68.5 |
63 |
49 |
|
49 |
57 |
|
58 |
48 |
|
44 |
61 |
|
57 |
05-18-25 |
55 |
55.6 |
55 |
73 |
75.9 |
74 |
49 |
46.8 |
46 |
70 |
73.0 |
69 |
51 |
51.8 |
48 |
60 |
68.5 |
59 |
50 |
|
45 |
59 |
|
53 |
05-17-25 |
58 |
56.8 |
61 |
73 |
77.5 |
74 |
55 |
55.6 |
53 |
72 |
75.9 |
73 |
50 |
46.8 |
49 |
68 |
73.0 |
70 |
51 |
51.8 |
48 |
60 |
68.5 |
60 |
05-16-25 |
59 |
59.2 |
60 |
75 |
72.0 |
76 |
58 |
56.8 |
59 |
72 |
77.5 |
69 |
55 |
55.6 |
53 |
72 |
75.9 |
70 |
50 |
46.8 |
48 |
68 |
73.0 |
67 |
05-15-25 |
57 |
61.2 |
58 |
74 |
65.5 |
75 |
59 |
59.2 |
61 |
77 |
72.0 |
78 |
59 |
56.8 |
58 |
71 |
77.5 |
71 |
54 |
55.6 |
54 |
71 |
75.9 |
73 |
Results |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
# Succ |
4 |
|
4 |
0 |
|
1 |
4 |
|
3 |
0 |
|
0 |
2 |
|
1 |
0 |
|
0 |
2 |
|
2 |
0 |
|
0 |
% Succ |
66.7 |
|
66.7 |
|
|
16.7 |
80.0 |
|
60.0 |
|
|
0.0 |
50.0 |
|
25.0 |
|
|
0.0 |
66.7 |
|
66.7 |
|
|
0.0 |
Ave Error |
1.5 |
|
1.8 |
6.1 |
|
4.7 |
0.9 |
|
1.5 |
5.4 |
|
5.4 |
1.7 |
|
2.5 |
6.0 |
|
6.2 |
1.9 |
|
2.2 |
6.1 |
|
5.8 |
Net Error |
-0.4 |
|
-0.1 |
-2.2 |
|
-0.2 |
0.6 |
|
0.2 |
-3.4 |
|
-3.0 |
1.0 |
|
-0.7 |
-6.0 |
|
-6.2 |
0.3 |
|
-1.4 |
-6.1 |
|
-5.8 |
Std Dev |
0.8 |
|
1.3 |
2.9 |
|
1.4 |
0.7 |
|
0.8 |
2.2 |
|
1.3 |
0.5 |
|
0.7 |
1.3 |
|
1.6 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|