WxSim & NWS Forecast Comparison
National Weather Service (NW), Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)
Morning Forecasts
Updated: 07-30-25 at 5:00 am |
Goal |
Forecast Day |
Day +1 |
Day +2 |
Day +3 |
± 2.0° F |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
Date |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
07-30-25 |
74 |
|
94 |
91 |
|
73 |
73 |
|
84 |
82 |
|
65 |
64 |
|
71 |
72 |
|
61 |
62 |
|
83 |
79 |
|
65 |
07-29-25 |
73 |
94.6 |
94 |
92 |
71.8 |
72 |
74 |
|
93 |
89 |
|
74 |
74 |
|
83 |
82 |
|
61 |
66 |
|
71 |
75 |
|
60 |
07-28-25 |
72 |
92.5 |
93 |
91 |
70.3 |
72 |
73 |
94.6 |
94 |
93 |
71.8 |
72 |
76 |
|
91 |
91 |
|
73 |
73 |
|
80 |
82 |
|
64 |
07-27-25 |
69 |
82.0 |
84 |
81 |
64.6 |
72 |
72 |
92.5 |
94 |
89 |
70.3 |
72 |
73 |
94.6 |
93 |
91 |
71.8 |
75 |
74 |
|
94 |
91 |
|
71 |
07-26-25 |
72 |
83.1 |
87 |
83 |
69.3 |
70 |
69 |
82.0 |
81 |
81 |
64.6 |
71 |
72 |
92.5 |
91 |
88 |
70.3 |
72 |
72 |
94.6 |
94 |
91 |
71.8 |
72 |
07-25-25 |
74 |
91.2 |
93 |
90 |
73.8 |
70 |
72 |
83.1 |
87 |
85 |
69.3 |
70 |
69 |
82.0 |
81 |
81 |
64.6 |
71 |
71 |
92.5 |
90 |
87 |
70.3 |
73 |
07-24-25 |
66 |
84.6 |
89 |
84 |
69.6 |
72 |
74 |
91.2 |
93 |
90 |
73.8 |
71 |
73 |
83.1 |
86 |
85 |
69.3 |
69 |
70 |
82.0 |
89 |
84 |
64.6 |
73 |
Results |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
# Succ |
0 |
|
4 |
0 |
|
3 |
0 |
|
4 |
0 |
|
3 |
0 |
|
3 |
0 |
|
2 |
0 |
|
1 |
0 |
|
1 |
% Succ |
|
|
66.7 |
|
|
50.0 |
|
|
80.0 |
|
|
60.0 |
|
|
75.0 |
|
|
50.0 |
|
|
33.3 |
|
|
33.3 |
Ave Error |
17.0 |
|
2.2 |
16.9 |
|
2.7 |
16.7 |
|
1.8 |
17.6 |
|
2.4 |
16.3 |
|
1.8 |
17.3 |
|
2.9 |
18.7 |
|
3.4 |
18.4 |
|
3.8 |
Net Error |
-17.0 |
|
2.0 |
16.9 |
|
1.4 |
-16.7 |
|
1.1 |
17.6 |
|
1.2 |
-16.3 |
|
-0.3 |
17.3 |
|
2.8 |
-18.7 |
|
1.3 |
18.4 |
|
3.8 |
Std Dev |
3.7 |
|
1.2 |
2.5 |
|
2.4 |
3.2 |
|
0.6 |
1.8 |
|
2.1 |
2.7 |
|
0.1 |
1.0 |
|
0.2 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
Mid-Day Forecasts
Updated: 07-29-25 at 11:00 am |
Goal |
Forecast Day |
Day +1 |
Day +2 |
Day +3 |
± 2.0° F |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
Date |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
07-29-25 |
92 |
|
98 |
74 |
|
73 |
89 |
|
93 |
74 |
|
74 |
82 |
|
82 |
66 |
|
64 |
75 |
|
71 |
64 |
|
61 |
07-28-25 |
72 |
92.5 |
95 |
91 |
71.8 |
74 |
73 |
|
94 |
93 |
|
72 |
76 |
|
91 |
91 |
|
72 |
73 |
|
82 |
82 |
|
65 |
07-27-25 |
81 |
82.0 |
84 |
72 |
70.3 |
71 |
89 |
92.5 |
93 |
73 |
71.8 |
72 |
91 |
|
93 |
74 |
|
74 |
91 |
|
94 |
73 |
|
71 |
07-26-25 |
83 |
83.1 |
88 |
69 |
64.6 |
72 |
81 |
82.0 |
85 |
72 |
70.3 |
71 |
88 |
92.5 |
92 |
72 |
71.8 |
73 |
91 |
|
93 |
74 |
|
74 |
07-25-25 |
90 |
91.2 |
95 |
72 |
69.3 |
71 |
85 |
83.1 |
87 |
69 |
64.6 |
71 |
81 |
82.0 |
82 |
71 |
70.3 |
71 |
87 |
92.5 |
90 |
73 |
71.8 |
71 |
07-24-25 |
84 |
84.6 |
89 |
74 |
73.8 |
72 |
90 |
91.2 |
92 |
73 |
69.3 |
72 |
85 |
83.1 |
86 |
70 |
64.6 |
70 |
84 |
82.0 |
90 |
72 |
70.3 |
72 |
07-23-25 |
82 |
83.7 |
87 |
70 |
69.6 |
67 |
83 |
84.6 |
88 |
73 |
73.8 |
72 |
90 |
91.2 |
93 |
74 |
69.3 |
71 |
85 |
83.1 |
86 |
71 |
64.6 |
69 |
Results |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
# Succ |
5 |
|
1 |
3 |
|
3 |
4 |
|
2 |
3 |
|
3 |
3 |
|
3 |
2 |
|
3 |
2 |
|
0 |
2 |
|
2 |
% Succ |
83.3 |
|
16.7 |
50.0 |
|
50.0 |
80.0 |
|
40.0 |
60.0 |
|
60.0 |
75.0 |
|
75.0 |
50.0 |
|
75.0 |
66.7 |
|
0.0 |
66.7 |
|
66.7 |
Ave Error |
4.2 |
|
3.5 |
4.8 |
|
2.7 |
1.8 |
|
2.3 |
2.4 |
|
2.4 |
2.2 |
|
1.3 |
2.8 |
|
2.3 |
3.1 |
|
4.5 |
3.1 |
|
2.3 |
Net Error |
-4.2 |
|
3.5 |
4.8 |
|
1.3 |
-1.1 |
|
2.3 |
2.0 |
|
1.6 |
-1.2 |
|
1.1 |
2.8 |
|
2.3 |
-0.5 |
|
2.8 |
3.1 |
|
1.8 |
Std Dev |
7.2 |
|
1.0 |
6.4 |
|
2.2 |
0.8 |
|
1.1 |
1.1 |
|
2.2 |
1.2 |
|
0.4 |
1.3 |
|
0.5 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
Evening Forecasts
Updated: 07-29-25 at 5:00 pm |
Goal |
Forecast Day |
Day +1 |
Day +2 |
Day +3 |
± 2.0° F |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Date |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
07-29-25 |
93 |
|
73 |
73 |
|
93 |
92 |
|
74 |
73 |
|
81 |
82 |
|
63 |
64 |
|
71 |
72 |
|
60 |
62 |
|
83 |
07-28-25 |
93 |
71.8 |
72 |
74 |
92.5 |
94 |
93 |
|
72 |
76 |
|
91 |
91 |
|
73 |
72 |
|
82 |
82 |
|
65 |
66 |
|
80 |
07-27-25 |
80 |
70.3 |
70 |
72 |
82.0 |
93 |
91 |
71.8 |
71 |
74 |
92.5 |
93 |
92 |
|
74 |
77 |
|
94 |
90 |
|
72 |
73 |
|
79 |
07-26-25 |
83 |
64.6 |
66 |
68 |
83.1 |
80 |
81 |
70.3 |
71 |
72 |
82.0 |
93 |
89 |
71.8 |
72 |
72 |
92.5 |
92 |
92 |
|
74 |
74 |
|
94 |
07-25-25 |
72 |
69.3 |
71 |
84 |
91.2 |
86 |
71 |
64.6 |
70 |
80 |
83.1 |
82 |
71 |
70.3 |
71 |
87 |
82.0 |
91 |
73 |
71.8 |
73 |
91 |
92.5 |
93 |
07-24-25 |
84 |
73.8 |
70 |
74 |
84.6 |
93 |
90 |
69.3 |
72 |
73 |
91.2 |
87 |
85 |
64.6 |
70 |
70 |
83.1 |
85 |
83 |
70.3 |
71 |
72 |
82.0 |
88 |
07-23-25 |
82 |
69.6 |
66 |
66 |
83.7 |
88 |
84 |
73.8 |
71 |
74 |
84.6 |
93 |
90 |
69.3 |
72 |
74 |
91.2 |
85 |
84 |
64.6 |
70 |
70 |
83.1 |
90 |
Results |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
# Succ |
0 |
|
4 |
0 |
|
1 |
0 |
|
2 |
0 |
|
2 |
1 |
|
2 |
0 |
|
2 |
1 |
|
2 |
1 |
|
1 |
% Succ |
|
|
66.7 |
|
|
16.7 |
|
|
40.0 |
|
|
40.0 |
25.0 |
|
50.0 |
|
|
50.0 |
33.3 |
|
66.7 |
33.3 |
|
33.3 |
Ave Error |
12.4 |
|
1.8 |
13.2 |
|
5.6 |
13.4 |
|
2.5 |
12.1 |
|
5.0 |
14.8 |
|
2.3 |
14.0 |
|
4.4 |
11.1 |
|
2.4 |
8.2 |
|
4.5 |
Net Error |
12.4 |
|
-0.7 |
-13.2 |
|
2.8 |
13.4 |
|
1.0 |
-12.1 |
|
2.9 |
14.8 |
|
2.3 |
-11.5 |
|
1.1 |
11.1 |
|
2.4 |
-8.2 |
|
4.5 |
Std Dev |
6.1 |
|
1.2 |
3.8 |
|
3.2 |
4.2 |
|
1.7 |
5.0 |
|
3.8 |
1.2 |
|
1.0 |
3.3 |
|
2.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
Nighttime Forecasts
Updated: 07-29-25 at 11:00 pm |
Goal |
Forecast Day |
Day +1 |
Day +2 |
Day +3 |
± 2.0° F |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Date |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
07-29-25 |
73 |
|
74 |
92 |
|
94 |
73 |
|
73 |
82 |
|
82 |
64 |
|
62 |
72 |
|
71 |
62 |
|
60 |
79 |
|
82 |
07-28-25 |
93 |
71.8 |
72 |
74 |
92.5 |
94 |
93 |
|
72 |
76 |
|
92 |
91 |
|
72 |
72 |
|
83 |
82 |
|
62 |
66 |
|
75 |
07-27-25 |
72 |
70.3 |
72 |
91 |
82.0 |
95 |
74 |
71.8 |
72 |
92 |
92.5 |
94 |
77 |
|
73 |
90 |
|
93 |
73 |
|
72 |
84 |
|
80 |
07-26-25 |
69 |
64.6 |
65 |
81 |
83.1 |
82 |
72 |
70.3 |
72 |
89 |
82.0 |
93 |
72 |
71.8 |
73 |
92 |
92.5 |
93 |
74 |
|
74 |
90 |
|
94 |
07-25-25 |
72 |
69.3 |
71 |
84 |
91.2 |
87 |
71 |
64.6 |
71 |
80 |
83.1 |
83 |
71 |
70.3 |
72 |
87 |
82.0 |
91 |
73 |
71.8 |
72 |
91 |
92.5 |
95 |
07-24-25 |
84 |
73.8 |
72 |
74 |
84.6 |
94 |
90 |
69.3 |
71 |
73 |
91.2 |
87 |
85 |
64.6 |
71 |
70 |
83.1 |
85 |
83 |
70.3 |
71 |
72 |
82.0 |
90 |
07-23-25 |
82 |
69.6 |
69 |
66 |
83.7 |
89 |
84 |
73.8 |
72 |
74 |
84.6 |
94 |
90 |
69.3 |
71 |
74 |
91.2 |
88 |
84 |
64.6 |
70 |
70 |
83.1 |
90 |
Results |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
# Succ |
1 |
|
6 |
0 |
|
2 |
1 |
|
4 |
1 |
|
2 |
2 |
|
3 |
1 |
|
2 |
1 |
|
2 |
1 |
|
0 |
% Succ |
16.7 |
|
100.0 |
|
|
33.3 |
20.0 |
|
80.0 |
20.0 |
|
40.0 |
50.0 |
|
75.0 |
25.0 |
|
50.0 |
33.3 |
|
66.7 |
33.3 |
|
0.0 |
Ave Error |
8.8 |
|
1.1 |
10.9 |
|
5.8 |
8.2 |
|
2.4 |
7.9 |
|
5.2 |
10.5 |
|
2.8 |
9.0 |
|
3.7 |
11.1 |
|
2.1 |
8.2 |
|
5.8 |
Net Error |
8.8 |
|
0.3 |
-7.9 |
|
4.0 |
8.2 |
|
1.6 |
-5.1 |
|
3.5 |
10.5 |
|
2.8 |
-6.5 |
|
2.1 |
11.1 |
|
2.1 |
-8.2 |
|
5.8 |
Std Dev |
6.6 |
|
0.7 |
5.0 |
|
4.2 |
4.1 |
|
2.1 |
4.0 |
|
3.8 |
5.2 |
|
0.8 |
4.2 |
|
1.6 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|