WxSim & NWS Forecast Comparison

National Weather Service (NW), Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)
Morning Forecasts
Updated: 03-28-20 at 6:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
03-28-20 53   54 45   44 52   56 45   50 57   61 41   45 50   51 39   37
03-27-20 <65 65.8 43 >35 42.8 59 <55   39 <45   53 <55   42 45   57 >55   48 <45   59
03-26-20 53 ↓ 33.8 53 41 ↑ 57.9 41 54 65.8 56 41 42.8 40 51 ↓   53 44 ↑   43 54   54 47   46
03-25-20 45 ↓ 45.9 47 36 36.9 33 52 33.8 53 37 ↑ 57.9 40 57 ↓ 65.8 50 37 ↑ 42.8 39 51   53 42   43
03-24-20 52 53.6 53 36 34.3 37 46 ↓ 45.9 47 32 36.9 34 52 33.8 52 37 57.9 40 62 65.8 50 35 42.8 38
03-23-20 44 42.6 46 37 ↑ 33.3 39 54 ↓ 53.6 54 41 34.3 41 47 ↓ 45.9 48 37 36.9 37 52 33.8 53 41 57.9 41
03-22-20 <45 45.3 43 >25 32.4 35 <45 42.6 46 >35 33.3 40 55 53.6 55 <45 34.3 43 50 45.9 50 <45 36.9 40
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 3 2 2 0 2 2 1 0 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0
% Succ 50.0   33.3 33.3   0.0 40.0   40.0 20.0   0.0 50.0   25.0 25.0   25.0     0.0     0.0
Ave Error 22.4   8.2 16.4   8.0 14.6   6.8 13.5   7.4 7.4   9.4 15.3   7.6 8.7   13.0 20.5   8.3
Net Error -15.5   -0.3 -14.6   1.1 -7.1   2.9 -10.8   -2.0 3.0   1.5 -15.2   -3.2 6.2   2.5 -20.5   -6.2
Std Dev 23.2   8.8 14.8   5.7 6.8   6.3 7.3   5.5 0.7   3.2 4.7   1.9 0.0   0.0 0.0   0.0

Mid-Day Forecasts
Updated: 03-28-20 at 12:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
03-28-20 53   55 45   44 52   56 45   49 57   59 41   42 50   50 39   37
03-27-20 <65 65.8 64 >35 38.5 39 <55   54 <45   42 <55   56 45   49 >55   59 <45   43
03-26-20 53 ↓ 57.9 55 41 ↑ 42.8 42 54 65.8 58 41 38.5 39 51 ↓   53 44 ↑   41 54   54 47   47
03-25-20 47 ↓ 45.9 50 34 33.8 33 51 ↓ 57.9 52 37 ↑ 42.8 40 55 65.8 53 39 ↑ 38.5 38 58   54 39   43
03-24-20 52 53.6 53 36 36.9 36 46 ↓ 45.9 47 32 33.8 34 52 57.9 52 37 42.8 40 62 65.8 48 35 38.5 38
03-23-20 44 42.6 43 37 ↑ 34.3 35 54 ↓ 53.6 53 41 36.9 41 47 ↓ 45.9 47 37 33.8 38 52 57.9 50 41 42.8 41
03-22-20 <45 45.3 43 >25 33.3 34 <45 42.6 47 >35 34.3 40 55 53.6 53 <45 36.9 43 50 45.9 50 <45 33.8 40
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 3 3 3 6 2 2 1 2 2 2 1 1 0 0 1 2
% Succ 50.0   50.0 50.0   100.0 40.0   40.0 20.0   40.0 50.0   50.0 25.0   25.0     0.0 33.3   66.7
Ave Error 20.0   2.0 12.9   0.7 12.4   4.0 9.7   2.7 4.8   5.1 11.6   3.4 4.6   9.9 13.0   2.8
Net Error -19.2   -0.5 -11.9   -0.1 -12.2   -1.8 -7.1   1.5 -3.6   -4.6 -9.8   1.8 -1.9   -7.2 -13.0   1.3
Std Dev 23.7   1.3 14.1   0.1 6.0   2.3 5.1   1.5 3.0   3.9 5.6   1.5 0.0   0.0 0.0   0.0

Evening Forecasts
Updated: 03-27-20 at 6:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
03-27-20 36   40 51   55 43   43 51 ↓   54 46 ↑   48 58 ↓   61 40   44 50   55
03-26-20 42 42.8 43 57 57.9 60 40   39 51 ↓   52 43 ↑   42 54 ↓   54 45   47 56   59
03-25-20 33 ↑ 33.8 33 52 ↓ 45.9 53 39 ↑ 42.8 41 54 57.9 55 39   38 52 ↓   54 43   42 52   59
03-24-20 36 36.9 53 46 ↓ 53.6 36 32 33.8 47 52 45.9 34 37 42.8 52 62 57.9 40 35   48 53   38
03-23-20 37 42.6 36 52 34.3 53 40 36.9 40 47 53.6 47 36 ↑ 33.8 39 51 ↓ 45.9 50 41 42.8 41 52 57.9 57
03-22-20 29 ↑ 33.3 35 44 45.3 47 38 42.6 40 54 ↓ 34.3 56 40 36.9 44 47 ↓ 53.6 51 38 33.8 40 54 45.9 53
03-21-20 27 32.4 30 41 67.1 43 32 33.3 34 42 45.3 48 38 42.6 41 52 34.3 54 40 36.9 43 50 53.6 48
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 3 3 2 1 2 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 1
% Succ 50.0   50.0 33.3   16.7 40.0   40.0     0.0     25.0     0.0 33.3   33.3     33.3
Ave Error 3.0   4.6 10.0   11.9 2.9   4.3 7.9   9.2 3.9   5.8 8.4   11.1 3.0   4.7 5.9   4.5
Net Error -3.0   1.4 -2.0   -2.0 -1.7   2.5 2.4   0.6 -1.3   5.0 5.1   0.8 1.8   3.5 -0.5   0.2
Std Dev 1.9   5.5 6.3   7.1 0.6   4.2 2.1   3.3 0.9   1.7 2.1   3.4 0.0   0.0 0.0   0.0

Nighttime Forecasts
Updated: 03-27-20 at 11:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
03-27-20 36 ↑   39 51   55 43   44 51 ↓   54 46 ↑   48 58 ↓   60 40   43 50   51
03-26-20 42 42.8 43 57 57.9 59 40   39 51 ↓   53 43 ↑   42 54 ↓   57 45   48 56   59
03-25-20 35 33.8 34 50 45.9 53 39 ↑ 42.8 41 54 57.9 55 39   39 52 ↓   53 43   43 52   58
03-24-20 37 36.9 38 46 53.6 47 36 33.8 35 52 45.9 51 37 ↑ 42.8 40 57 ↓ 57.9 52 37   37 51   55
03-23-20 37 34.3 35 52 42.6 53 40 36.9 38 47 53.6 46 36 ↑ 33.8 36 51 ↓ 45.9 50 41 42.8 40 52 57.9 50
03-22-20 29 ↑ 33.3 32 44 45.3 46 38 34.3 39 54 ↓ 42.6 56 40 36.9 44 47 ↓ 53.6 49 38 33.8 39 54 45.9 51
03-21-20 27 32.4 31 41 67.1 44 32 33.3 31 42 45.3 44 38 34.3 40 52 42.6 50 40 36.9 43 50 53.6 50
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 3 6 2 2 1 3 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0
% Succ 50.0   100.0 33.3   33.3 20.0   60.0     20.0     0.0 25.0   0.0 33.3   0.0     0.0
Ave Error 2.4   0.8 8.2   8.2 2.8   2.2 6.3   6.1 3.7   4.5 5.5   5.5 3.0   4.7 5.9   5.5
Net Error -1.1   -0.1 -3.7   -1.7 0.8   0.6 0.7   1.3 0.8   3.1 1.8   0.3 1.8   2.8 -0.5   -2.1
Std Dev 1.5   0.4 4.5   4.4 0.5   0.7 1.1   1.6 1.1   0.8 2.3   0.2 0.0   0.0 0.0   0.0