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NW Suffolk
 Details for NW Suffolk Coastal Flood Statement  +1 additional alert
 Suffolk
 Details for Suffolk Coastal Flood Statement  +1 additional alert
 Nassau
 Details for Nassau Coastal Flood Statement  +2 additional alerts
 NE Suffolk
 Details for NE Suffolk Special Weather Statement

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WxSim & NWS Forecast Comparison

National Weather Service (NW), Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)
Morning Forecasts
Updated: 02-18-19 at 6:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
02-18-19 40 ↓   46 20   17 34 ↓   36 21 ↑   19 36 ↓   35 29 ↑   29 50   55 32   30
02-17-19 38 ↓ 37.6 40 30 ↑ 23.5 31 37 ↓   46 23   16 34 ↓   35 19   18 34   34 27   29
02-16-19 43 ↓ 49.3 44 23 33.3 22 37 ↓ 37.6 42 28 ↑ 23.5 31 36 ↓   40 22   15 35   34 22   19
02-15-19 52 ↓ 50.9 54 32 35.1 31 40 ↓ 49.3 44 21 33.3 22 37 ↓ 37.6 43 27 ↑ 23.5 31 39   46 22   18
02-14-19 41 ↓ 45.5 42 35 ↑ 30.2 35 53 ↓ 50.9 52 35 35.1 28 40 ↓ 49.3 44 22 33.3 22 37 37.6 43 24 23.5 31
02-13-19 40 ↓ 41.4 39 27 32.5 27 42 ↓ 45.5 41 35 ↑ 30.2 34 50 ↓ 50.9 50 34 35.1 25 40 49.3 42 24 33.3 20
02-12-19 36 ↓ 38.1 35 35 ↑ 26.4 32 44 ↓ 41.4 44 27 32.5 30 43 ↓ 45.5 43 35 ↑ 30.2 37 49 50.9 51 38 35.1 27
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 3 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 2 1 1 0 2 1 1 0
% Succ 50.0   0.0     0.0 20.0   20.0 20.0   0.0 50.0   25.0 25.0   0.0 66.7   33.3 33.3   0.0
Ave Error 2.6   3.3 6.5   6.5 3.6   3.6 5.4   6.4 3.3   3.5 5.2   8.9 3.9   4.3 4.2   9.6
Net Error -2.1   -1.5 0.2   -0.5 -1.7   -0.3 -1.7   -1.9 -3.3   -0.8 -1.0   -1.8 -3.9   -0.6 -2.0   -4.6
Std Dev 2.1   1.0 2.2   2.4 3.0   1.4 3.9   2.2 1.4   0.9 0.8   0.7 0.0   0.0 0.0   0.0

Mid-Day Forecasts
Updated: 02-17-19 at 12:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
02-17-19 38 ↓   39 30 ↑   31 37 ↓   46 23   16 34 ↓   35 19   18 34   34 27   29
02-16-19 42 ↓ 49.3 43 23 23.5 21 38 ↓   42 28 ↑   31 36 ↓   40 22   15 35   36 22   19
02-15-19 52 ↓ 50.9 53 32 33.3 29 40 ↓ 49.3 44 21 23.5 22 37 ↓   41 27 ↑   32 39   40 22   17
02-14-19 41 ↓ 45.5 42 35 ↑ 35.1 36 53 ↓ 50.9 52 35 33.3 30 40 ↓ 49.3 42 22 23.5 22 37   42 24   29
02-13-19 44 ↓ 41.4 44 26 30.2 28 39 45.5 42 34 ↑ 35.1 35 53 ↓ 50.9 51 34 ↑ 33.3 27 39 49.3 43 24 23.5 22
02-12-19 36 ↓ 38.1 33 35 ↑ 32.5 30 44 ↓ 41.4 40 27 30.2 27 43 ↓ 45.5 42 35 ↑ 35.1 35 49 50.9 51 38 33.3 28
02-11-19 36 ↓ 36.7 38 25 ↑ 26.4 26 35 38.1 34 34 ↑ 32.5 31 45 ↓ 41.4 42 27 30.2 27 44 45.5 43 33 35.1 37
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 2 1 4 2 0 2 3 3 0 2 3 2 2 1 1 2
% Succ 33.3   16.7 66.7   33.3     40.0 60.0   60.0     50.0 75.0   50.0 66.7   33.3 33.3   66.7
Ave Error 3.1   3.5 1.7   2.1 4.7   3.1 2.0   1.9 4.4   2.9 1.4   2.8 4.6   3.0 2.4   2.9
Net Error -1.8   -1.5 -0.8   -1.8 -2.8   -2.6 -0.7   -1.9 -1.5   -2.5 -1.0   -2.8 -4.6   -2.9 1.0   -1.6
Std Dev 2.0   1.5 1.4   1.0 2.5   1.3 0.5   1.0 2.5   2.2 0.1   0.6 0.0   0.0 0.0   0.0

Evening Forecasts
Updated: 02-17-19 at 6:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
02-17-19 30 ↑   28 38 ↓   47 20   17 34 ↓   35 16   18 34 ↓   33 29   28 42   54
02-16-19 22 23.5 20 36 ↓ 49.3 41 28 ↑   29 36 ↓   39 22   15 34 ↓   35 19   18 34   32
02-15-19 50 ↓ 33.3 28 33 50.9 44 40 ↓ 23.5 22 22 ↑ 49.3 41 36 ↓   32 27   39 38   15 22   35
02-14-19 35 ↑ 35.1 36 53 ↓ 45.5 52 33 33.3 30 39 ↓ 50.9 44 21 23.5 23 36 ↓ 49.3 42 26   32 39   41
02-13-19 25 30.2 28 41 ↓ 41.4 42 36 ↑ 35.1 35 53 ↓ 45.5 50 31 ↑ 33.3 27 39 ↓ 50.9 44 23 23.5 26 36 49.3 42
02-12-19 34 ↑ 32.5 32 42 ↓ 38.1 41 27 30.2 27 42 ↓ 41.4 42 35 ↑ 35.1 35 50 ↓ 45.5 50 34 33.3 25 40 50.9 38
02-11-19 27 26.4 24 34 36.7 34 34 ↑ 32.5 31 43 ↓ 38.1 43 27 ↑ 30.2 28 43 ↓ 41.4 45 34 35.1 38 48 45.5 53
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 4 2 1 1 3 3 1 1 1 2 1 0 3 0 0 0
% Succ 66.7   33.3 16.7   16.7 60.0   60.0 20.0   20.0 25.0   50.0 25.0   0.0 100.0   0.0     0.0
Ave Error 4.3   2.5 7.6   4.7 4.5   1.9 10.4   5.0 2.0   2.3 7.8   5.6 0.8   4.6 8.9   9.2
Net Error 2.0   -2.2 -3.8   -1.3 3.1   -1.9 -5.2   -1.0 -2.0   -2.3 -4.8   -1.5 -0.3   -1.0 -7.2   -4.2
Std Dev 5.6   1.6 5.8   2.6 5.9   1.0 7.7   1.7 0.2   0.9 2.7   0.9 0.0   0.0 0.0   0.0

Nighttime Forecasts
Updated: 02-17-19 at 11:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
02-17-19 30 ↑   29 38 ↓   46 20   16 34 ↓   35 16   19 34 ↓   33 29   28 42   54
02-16-19 22 23.5 22 36 ↓ 49.3 42 28 ↑   30 36 ↓   40 22   15 34 ↓   35 19   18 34   32
02-15-19 33 33.3 30 40 ↓ 50.9 45 22 ↑ 23.5 22 36 ↓ 49.3 42 27   32 38   40 22   15 35   35
02-14-19 35 ↑ 35.1 34 53 ↓ 45.5 51 33 33.3 30 39 ↓ 50.9 44 21 23.5 23 36 ↓ 49.3 42 26   32 39   41
02-13-19 25 30.2 28 41 ↓ 41.4 42 36 ↑ 35.1 35 53 ↓ 45.5 51 31 ↑ 33.3 27 39 ↓ 50.9 44 23 23.5 26 36 49.3 42
02-12-19 33 ↑ 32.5 36 42 ↓ 38.1 41 27 30.2 26 42 ↓ 41.4 42 35 ↑ 35.1 35 50 ↓ 45.5 50 34 33.3 25 40 50.9 39
02-11-19 27 26.4 25 34 ↓ 36.7 33 34 ↑ 32.5 30 43 ↓ 38.1 43 27 ↑ 30.2 27 43 ↓ 41.4 45 34 35.1 38 48 45.5 53
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 5 3 1 1 4 2 1 1 1 2 1 0 3 0 0 0
% Succ 83.3   50.0 16.7   16.7 80.0   40.0 20.0   20.0 25.0   50.0 25.0   0.0 100.0   0.0     0.0
Ave Error 1.4   2.2 6.5   4.3 1.5   2.3 7.6   5.0 2.0   2.5 7.8   5.6 0.8   4.6 8.9   8.9
Net Error -1.0   -1.0 -2.7   -1.3 -0.5   -2.3 -2.4   -0.6 -2.0   -2.5 -4.8   -1.5 -0.3   -1.0 -7.2   -3.9
Std Dev 1.7   0.9 4.3   2.2 0.6   1.1 3.2   1.3 0.2   1.0 2.7   0.9 0.0   0.0 0.0   0.0