WxSim & NWS Forecast Comparison
National Weather Service (NW), Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)
Morning Forecasts
| Updated: 01-22-26 at 5:00 am |
| Goal |
Forecast Day |
Day +1 |
Day +2 |
Day +3 |
| ± 2.0° F |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
| Date |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
| 01-22-26 |
46 |
|
47 |
65 |
|
25 |
42 |
|
40 |
60 |
|
7 |
41 |
|
22 |
61 |
|
12 |
39 |
|
23 |
63 |
|
17 |
| 01-21-26 |
36 |
40.5 |
39 |
33 |
7.7 |
33 |
44 |
|
49 |
25 |
|
26 |
34 |
|
38 |
8 |
|
5 |
18 |
|
21 |
9 |
|
8 |
| 01-20-26 |
23 |
27.5 |
27 |
13 |
18.5 |
14 |
40 |
40.5 |
38 |
32 |
7.7 |
32 |
43 |
|
46 |
24 |
|
32 |
34 |
|
39 |
9 |
|
6 |
| 01-19-26 |
33 |
34.3 |
37 |
16 |
28.2 |
16 |
22 |
27.5 |
27 |
12 |
18.5 |
15 |
38 |
40.5 |
38 |
29 |
7.7 |
31 |
41 |
|
50 |
22 |
|
26 |
| 01-18-26 |
37 |
34.0 |
41 |
21 |
25.7 |
24 |
32 |
34.3 |
37 |
15 |
28.2 |
18 |
24 |
27.5 |
27 |
12 |
18.5 |
16 |
38 |
40.5 |
36 |
28 |
7.7 |
30 |
| 01-17-26 |
44 |
46.0 |
45 |
30 |
26.1 |
32 |
37 |
34.0 |
39 |
21 |
25.7 |
22 |
34 |
34.3 |
39 |
16 |
28.2 |
21 |
25 |
27.5 |
29 |
15 |
18.5 |
18 |
| 01-16-26 |
36 |
34.0 |
38 |
27 |
21.0 |
29 |
42 |
46.0 |
43 |
30 |
26.1 |
32 |
37 |
34.0 |
39 |
21 |
25.7 |
22 |
35 |
34.3 |
37 |
15 |
28.2 |
22 |
| Results |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
| # Succ |
3 |
|
3 |
0 |
|
1 |
1 |
|
1 |
0 |
|
0 |
1 |
|
1 |
0 |
|
0 |
1 |
|
1 |
0 |
|
1 |
| % Succ |
50.0 |
|
50.0 |
|
|
16.7 |
20.0 |
|
20.0 |
|
|
0.0 |
25.0 |
|
25.0 |
|
|
0.0 |
33.3 |
|
33.3 |
|
|
33.3 |
| Ave Error |
2.9 |
|
2.8 |
9.6 |
|
9.6 |
3.1 |
|
2.7 |
10.5 |
|
9.5 |
2.3 |
|
3.2 |
11.2 |
|
9.2 |
1.9 |
|
2.9 |
12.3 |
|
9.7 |
| Net Error |
-1.2 |
|
1.8 |
2.1 |
|
3.5 |
-1.9 |
|
0.3 |
0.8 |
|
2.6 |
-0.8 |
|
1.7 |
-0.5 |
|
2.5 |
-1.4 |
|
-0.1 |
1.2 |
|
5.2 |
| Std Dev |
1.2 |
|
2.2 |
7.4 |
|
7.7 |
1.6 |
|
1.0 |
6.5 |
|
7.1 |
0.1 |
|
0.3 |
5.1 |
|
7.1 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
|
Mid-Day Forecasts
| Updated: 01-22-26 at 11:00 am |
| Goal |
Forecast Day |
Day +1 |
Day +2 |
Day +3 |
| ± 2.0° F |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
| Date |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
| 01-22-26 |
65 |
|
52 |
42 |
|
24 |
60 |
|
39 |
41 |
|
7 |
61 |
|
23 |
39 |
|
12 |
63 |
|
22 |
42 |
|
16 |
| 01-21-26 |
36 |
40.5 |
36 |
33 |
39.6 |
31 |
44 |
|
47 |
25 |
|
25 |
34 |
|
39 |
8 |
|
4 |
18 |
|
22 |
9 |
|
10 |
| 01-20-26 |
23 |
27.5 |
28 |
13 |
7.7 |
14 |
40 |
40.5 |
39 |
32 |
39.6 |
32 |
43 |
|
47 |
24 |
|
31 |
34 |
|
37 |
9 |
|
6 |
| 01-19-26 |
32 |
34.3 |
37 |
16 |
18.5 |
17 |
22 |
27.5 |
28 |
12 |
7.7 |
15 |
38 |
40.5 |
39 |
29 |
39.6 |
32 |
41 |
|
49 |
22 |
|
27 |
| 01-18-26 |
35 |
34.0 |
38 |
21 |
28.2 |
25 |
32 |
34.3 |
37 |
15 |
18.5 |
16 |
24 |
27.5 |
26 |
12 |
7.7 |
13 |
38 |
40.5 |
36 |
28 |
39.6 |
30 |
| 01-17-26 |
44 |
46.0 |
48 |
30 |
25.7 |
33 |
37 |
34.0 |
39 |
21 |
28.2 |
23 |
34 |
34.3 |
36 |
16 |
18.5 |
17 |
25 |
27.5 |
27 |
15 |
7.7 |
16 |
| 01-16-26 |
36 |
34.0 |
35 |
27 |
26.1 |
27 |
42 |
46.0 |
42 |
30 |
25.7 |
33 |
37 |
34.0 |
39 |
21 |
28.2 |
21 |
35 |
34.3 |
38 |
15 |
18.5 |
20 |
| Results |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
| # Succ |
3 |
|
3 |
1 |
|
2 |
1 |
|
2 |
0 |
|
0 |
1 |
|
3 |
0 |
|
1 |
1 |
|
1 |
0 |
|
1 |
| % Succ |
50.0 |
|
50.0 |
16.7 |
|
33.3 |
20.0 |
|
40.0 |
|
|
0.0 |
25.0 |
|
75.0 |
|
|
25.0 |
33.3 |
|
33.3 |
|
|
33.3 |
| Ave Error |
2.7 |
|
2.5 |
4.5 |
|
4.6 |
3.1 |
|
2.7 |
5.4 |
|
6.0 |
2.3 |
|
2.4 |
6.2 |
|
5.4 |
1.9 |
|
2.9 |
7.5 |
|
6.5 |
| Net Error |
-1.7 |
|
1.0 |
-1.0 |
|
0.2 |
-1.9 |
|
0.5 |
-1.9 |
|
-0.1 |
-0.8 |
|
0.9 |
-4.0 |
|
-2.8 |
-1.4 |
|
-0.4 |
-2.6 |
|
0.1 |
| Std Dev |
1.3 |
|
1.3 |
1.7 |
|
2.5 |
1.6 |
|
1.1 |
1.4 |
|
1.8 |
0.1 |
|
0.5 |
2.2 |
|
1.1 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
|
Evening Forecasts
| Updated: 01-21-26 at 5:00 pm |
| Goal |
Forecast Day |
Day +1 |
Day +2 |
Day +3 |
| ± 2.0° F |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
| Date |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
| 01-21-26 |
63 |
|
33 |
46 |
|
48 |
63 |
|
26 |
42 |
|
38 |
60 |
|
6 |
41 |
|
21 |
62 |
|
10 |
40 |
|
23 |
| 01-20-26 |
11 |
7.7 |
13 |
40 |
27.5 |
38 |
32 |
|
31 |
44 |
|
47 |
25 |
|
30 |
34 |
|
36 |
9 |
|
6 |
18 |
|
22 |
| 01-19-26 |
17 |
18.5 |
15 |
22 |
34.3 |
26 |
12 |
7.7 |
14 |
37 |
27.5 |
38 |
31 |
|
32 |
43 |
|
49 |
24 |
|
27 |
33 |
|
37 |
| 01-18-26 |
21 |
28.2 |
24 |
32 |
34.0 |
37 |
15 |
18.5 |
17 |
24 |
34.3 |
27 |
12 |
7.7 |
15 |
38 |
27.5 |
38 |
28 |
|
31 |
38 |
|
48 |
| 01-17-26 |
30 |
25.7 |
32 |
35 |
46.0 |
39 |
22 |
28.2 |
23 |
34 |
34.0 |
37 |
16 |
18.5 |
18 |
24 |
34.3 |
27 |
13 |
7.7 |
14 |
38 |
27.5 |
37 |
| 01-16-26 |
28 |
26.1 |
28 |
43 |
34.0 |
44 |
31 |
25.7 |
33 |
38 |
46.0 |
39 |
20 |
28.2 |
22 |
34 |
34.0 |
37 |
13 |
18.5 |
23 |
22 |
34.3 |
30 |
| 01-15-26 |
20 |
21.0 |
16 |
36 |
46.8 |
38 |
29 |
26.1 |
28 |
42 |
34.0 |
42 |
29 |
25.7 |
32 |
37 |
46.0 |
38 |
21 |
28.2 |
25 |
33 |
34.0 |
40 |
| Results |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
| # Succ |
3 |
|
1 |
1 |
|
0 |
0 |
|
2 |
1 |
|
0 |
0 |
|
1 |
1 |
|
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
1 |
|
0 |
| % Succ |
50.0 |
|
16.7 |
16.7 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
40.0 |
20.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
25.0 |
25.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
0.0 |
33.3 |
|
0.0 |
| Ave Error |
3.2 |
|
4.4 |
9.6 |
|
7.9 |
4.4 |
|
4.4 |
7.2 |
|
7.2 |
4.6 |
|
5.1 |
7.5 |
|
7.2 |
6.0 |
|
4.7 |
7.9 |
|
6.6 |
| Net Error |
0.0 |
|
0.1 |
-2.4 |
|
-0.1 |
0.6 |
|
1.8 |
-0.2 |
|
1.4 |
-0.8 |
|
1.7 |
-2.2 |
|
-0.4 |
-2.5 |
|
2.5 |
-0.9 |
|
3.7 |
| Std Dev |
1.9 |
|
1.4 |
3.6 |
|
2.5 |
0.9 |
|
1.6 |
3.6 |
|
2.4 |
0.1 |
|
1.1 |
1.5 |
|
1.7 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
|
Nighttime Forecasts
| Updated: 01-21-26 at 11:00 pm |
| Goal |
Forecast Day |
Day +1 |
Day +2 |
Day +3 |
| ± 2.0° F |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
| Date |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
| 01-21-26 |
46 |
|
34 |
63 |
|
47 |
42 |
|
26 |
60 |
|
39 |
41 |
|
6 |
62 |
|
21 |
40 |
|
11 |
62 |
|
24 |
| 01-20-26 |
11 |
7.7 |
10 |
37 |
27.5 |
36 |
32 |
|
31 |
44 |
|
48 |
25 |
|
27 |
34 |
|
38 |
9 |
|
5 |
18 |
|
20 |
| 01-19-26 |
17 |
18.5 |
15 |
22 |
34.3 |
26 |
12 |
7.7 |
14 |
37 |
27.5 |
38 |
31 |
|
32 |
43 |
|
49 |
24 |
|
27 |
33 |
|
37 |
| 01-18-26 |
25 |
28.2 |
26 |
33 |
34.0 |
38 |
17 |
18.5 |
17 |
24 |
34.3 |
28 |
11 |
7.7 |
16 |
37 |
27.5 |
38 |
29 |
|
31 |
40 |
|
50 |
| 01-17-26 |
30 |
25.7 |
26 |
35 |
46.0 |
38 |
22 |
28.2 |
22 |
34 |
34.0 |
38 |
16 |
18.5 |
19 |
24 |
34.3 |
28 |
13 |
7.7 |
15 |
38 |
27.5 |
36 |
| 01-16-26 |
28 |
26.1 |
30 |
43 |
34.0 |
44 |
31 |
25.7 |
32 |
38 |
46.0 |
39 |
20 |
28.2 |
25 |
34 |
34.0 |
37 |
13 |
18.5 |
18 |
22 |
34.3 |
27 |
| 01-15-26 |
20 |
21.0 |
19 |
36 |
46.8 |
39 |
29 |
26.1 |
30 |
42 |
34.0 |
43 |
29 |
25.7 |
32 |
37 |
46.0 |
38 |
21 |
28.2 |
23 |
33 |
34.0 |
37 |
| Results |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
| # Succ |
3 |
|
2 |
1 |
|
0 |
1 |
|
1 |
1 |
|
0 |
0 |
|
1 |
1 |
|
0 |
0 |
|
1 |
1 |
|
0 |
| % Succ |
50.0 |
|
33.3 |
16.7 |
|
0.0 |
20.0 |
|
20.0 |
20.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
25.0 |
25.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
33.3 |
33.3 |
|
0.0 |
| Ave Error |
2.5 |
|
2.4 |
8.9 |
|
7.8 |
4.0 |
|
4.8 |
7.2 |
|
7.4 |
4.3 |
|
4.6 |
7.2 |
|
7.0 |
6.0 |
|
4.3 |
7.9 |
|
6.3 |
| Net Error |
0.6 |
|
-0.2 |
-2.8 |
|
-0.3 |
1.0 |
|
1.8 |
-0.2 |
|
2.0 |
-1.0 |
|
3.0 |
-2.5 |
|
-0.2 |
-2.5 |
|
0.5 |
-0.9 |
|
1.4 |
| Std Dev |
1.0 |
|
1.2 |
3.6 |
|
1.8 |
1.5 |
|
1.7 |
3.6 |
|
2.1 |
0.5 |
|
1.9 |
1.2 |
|
1.8 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
|