WxSim & NWS Forecast Comparison
National Weather Service (NW), Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)
Morning Forecasts
Updated: 03-25-25 at 5:00 am |
Goal |
Forecast Day |
Day +1 |
Day +2 |
Day +3 |
± 2.0° F |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
Date |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
03-25-25 |
53 |
|
56 |
35 |
|
36 |
50 |
|
52 |
32 |
|
31 |
50 |
|
51 |
36 |
|
38 |
54 |
|
56 |
39 |
|
38 |
03-24-25 |
51 |
48.4 |
54 |
39 |
33.6 |
40 |
54 |
|
55 |
35 |
|
39 |
50 |
|
51 |
32 |
|
31 |
49 |
|
51 |
37 |
|
34 |
03-23-25 |
46 |
48.7 |
50 |
37 |
30.7 |
36 |
52 |
48.4 |
53 |
40 |
33.6 |
42 |
53 |
|
55 |
34 |
|
38 |
48 |
|
50 |
31 |
|
31 |
03-22-25 |
55 |
58.3 |
59 |
29 |
31.8 |
31 |
47 |
48.7 |
50 |
35 |
30.7 |
37 |
53 |
48.4 |
55 |
40 |
33.6 |
41 |
53 |
|
54 |
36 |
|
38 |
03-21-25 |
52 |
52.9 |
50 |
30 |
41.0 |
37 |
54 |
58.3 |
59 |
31 |
31.8 |
28 |
46 |
48.7 |
50 |
37 |
30.7 |
36 |
54 |
48.4 |
56 |
39 |
33.6 |
43 |
03-20-25 |
51 |
49.8 |
60 |
38 |
41.2 |
41 |
50 |
52.9 |
52 |
36 |
41.0 |
38 |
56 |
58.3 |
56 |
32 |
31.8 |
28 |
48 |
48.7 |
48 |
37 |
30.7 |
35 |
03-19-25 |
32 |
67.3 |
59 |
57 |
29.1 |
41 |
39 |
49.8 |
60 |
51 |
41.2 |
41 |
39 |
52.9 |
49 |
48 |
41.0 |
35 |
35 |
58.3 |
57 |
54 |
31.8 |
28 |
Results |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
# Succ |
2 |
|
2 |
0 |
|
2 |
1 |
|
3 |
1 |
|
1 |
0 |
|
1 |
1 |
|
0 |
1 |
|
2 |
0 |
|
0 |
% Succ |
33.3 |
|
33.3 |
|
|
33.3 |
20.0 |
|
60.0 |
20.0 |
|
20.0 |
|
|
25.0 |
25.0 |
|
0.0 |
33.3 |
|
66.7 |
|
|
0.0 |
Ave Error |
7.7 |
|
4.8 |
9.4 |
|
4.8 |
4.7 |
|
3.5 |
5.3 |
|
4.3 |
5.9 |
|
3.5 |
5.0 |
|
5.6 |
9.9 |
|
3.2 |
11.3 |
|
5.8 |
Net Error |
-6.4 |
|
1.1 |
3.8 |
|
3.1 |
-3.2 |
|
3.2 |
2.9 |
|
1.5 |
-3.6 |
|
0.4 |
5.0 |
|
0.7 |
-6.1 |
|
1.9 |
11.3 |
|
3.3 |
Std Dev |
5.1 |
|
3.2 |
4.3 |
|
2.6 |
1.4 |
|
1.7 |
2.1 |
|
2.0 |
0.6 |
|
1.5 |
0.7 |
|
0.9 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
Mid-Day Forecasts
Updated: 03-25-25 at 11:00 am |
Goal |
Forecast Day |
Day +1 |
Day +2 |
Day +3 |
± 2.0° F |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
Date |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
03-25-25 |
53 |
|
59 |
35 |
|
38 |
50 |
|
53 |
32 |
|
31 |
50 |
|
51 |
36 |
|
39 |
54 |
|
55 |
39 |
|
41 |
03-24-25 |
50 |
48.4 |
52 |
39 |
41.2 |
40 |
54 |
|
54 |
35 |
|
37 |
50 |
|
52 |
32 |
|
32 |
49 |
|
50 |
37 |
|
36 |
03-23-25 |
46 |
48.7 |
51 |
37 |
33.6 |
36 |
52 |
48.4 |
55 |
40 |
41.2 |
41 |
53 |
|
55 |
34 |
|
38 |
48 |
|
51 |
31 |
|
31 |
03-22-25 |
57 |
58.3 |
63 |
29 |
30.7 |
31 |
47 |
48.7 |
51 |
35 |
33.6 |
37 |
53 |
48.4 |
55 |
40 |
41.2 |
41 |
53 |
|
53 |
36 |
|
36 |
03-21-25 |
52 |
52.9 |
52 |
30 |
31.8 |
37 |
54 |
58.3 |
59 |
31 |
30.7 |
28 |
46 |
48.7 |
50 |
37 |
33.6 |
37 |
54 |
48.4 |
55 |
39 |
41.2 |
44 |
03-20-25 |
51 |
49.8 |
59 |
38 |
41.0 |
41 |
50 |
52.9 |
52 |
36 |
31.8 |
38 |
56 |
58.3 |
57 |
32 |
30.7 |
28 |
48 |
48.7 |
48 |
37 |
33.6 |
35 |
03-19-25 |
58 |
67.3 |
66 |
39 |
41.2 |
42 |
51 |
49.8 |
61 |
39 |
41.0 |
40 |
48 |
52.9 |
49 |
35 |
31.8 |
36 |
54 |
58.3 |
56 |
31 |
30.7 |
34 |
Results |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
# Succ |
4 |
|
2 |
2 |
|
4 |
2 |
|
2 |
4 |
|
2 |
0 |
|
2 |
2 |
|
1 |
1 |
|
1 |
1 |
|
1 |
% Succ |
66.7 |
|
33.3 |
33.3 |
|
66.7 |
40.0 |
|
40.0 |
80.0 |
|
40.0 |
|
|
50.0 |
50.0 |
|
25.0 |
33.3 |
|
33.3 |
33.3 |
|
33.3 |
Ave Error |
2.8 |
|
3.7 |
2.4 |
|
1.7 |
2.7 |
|
4.3 |
1.8 |
|
2.7 |
3.6 |
|
3.3 |
2.3 |
|
2.6 |
3.5 |
|
3.2 |
2.0 |
|
2.5 |
Net Error |
-1.9 |
|
2.9 |
-1.3 |
|
1.3 |
-0.8 |
|
4.0 |
0.5 |
|
1.1 |
-1.3 |
|
0.7 |
1.7 |
|
1.2 |
0.2 |
|
1.2 |
0.5 |
|
2.5 |
Std Dev |
1.3 |
|
2.6 |
0.6 |
|
1.7 |
0.9 |
|
2.1 |
0.8 |
|
1.2 |
0.5 |
|
1.7 |
0.5 |
|
1.2 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
Evening Forecasts
Updated: 03-24-25 at 5:00 pm |
Goal |
Forecast Day |
Day +1 |
Day +2 |
Day +3 |
± 2.0° F |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Date |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
03-24-25 |
39 |
|
41 |
55 |
|
55 |
37 |
|
37 |
51 |
|
53 |
32 |
|
30 |
51 |
|
50 |
36 |
|
37 |
54 |
|
53 |
03-23-25 |
37 |
33.6 |
37 |
52 |
48.7 |
55 |
39 |
|
42 |
56 |
|
55 |
35 |
|
38 |
49 |
|
51 |
32 |
|
32 |
49 |
|
51 |
03-22-25 |
32 |
30.7 |
29 |
46 |
58.3 |
51 |
37 |
33.6 |
37 |
48 |
48.7 |
55 |
39 |
|
41 |
53 |
|
54 |
35 |
|
36 |
50 |
|
50 |
03-21-25 |
31 |
31.8 |
38 |
54 |
52.9 |
60 |
34 |
30.7 |
30 |
46 |
58.3 |
51 |
35 |
33.6 |
38 |
53 |
48.7 |
54 |
40 |
|
41 |
53 |
|
54 |
03-20-25 |
41 |
41.0 |
40 |
54 |
49.8 |
51 |
32 |
31.8 |
38 |
54 |
52.9 |
58 |
31 |
30.7 |
29 |
46 |
58.3 |
48 |
38 |
33.6 |
37 |
54 |
48.7 |
54 |
03-19-25 |
39 |
41.2 |
43 |
51 |
67.3 |
62 |
39 |
41.0 |
41 |
48 |
49.8 |
51 |
36 |
31.8 |
37 |
54 |
52.9 |
57 |
32 |
30.7 |
27 |
48 |
58.3 |
50 |
03-18-25 |
54 |
29.1 |
38 |
32 |
60.1 |
60 |
56 |
41.2 |
42 |
39 |
67.3 |
59 |
53 |
41.0 |
40 |
37 |
49.8 |
47 |
48 |
31.8 |
34 |
35 |
52.9 |
56 |
Results |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
# Succ |
3 |
|
3 |
1 |
|
2 |
2 |
|
3 |
3 |
|
1 |
2 |
|
2 |
1 |
|
0 |
1 |
|
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
% Succ |
50.0 |
|
50.0 |
16.7 |
|
33.3 |
40.0 |
|
60.0 |
60.0 |
|
20.0 |
50.0 |
|
50.0 |
25.0 |
|
0.0 |
33.3 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
0.0 |
Ave Error |
5.4 |
|
3.8 |
10.9 |
|
4.6 |
4.7 |
|
2.2 |
8.8 |
|
5.6 |
4.5 |
|
3.1 |
7.6 |
|
5.6 |
7.3 |
|
3.1 |
11.2 |
|
5.6 |
Net Error |
4.4 |
|
2.9 |
-8.0 |
|
0.3 |
3.9 |
|
1.9 |
-8.4 |
|
-0.6 |
4.5 |
|
1.7 |
-4.9 |
|
-0.9 |
7.3 |
|
0.6 |
-7.6 |
|
0.0 |
Std Dev |
3.7 |
|
1.9 |
6.2 |
|
2.2 |
2.2 |
|
2.0 |
5.3 |
|
0.8 |
1.5 |
|
0.7 |
1.7 |
|
0.2 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
Nighttime Forecasts
Updated: 03-24-25 at 11:00 pm |
Goal |
Forecast Day |
Day +1 |
Day +2 |
Day +3 |
± 2.0° F |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Date |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
03-24-25 |
39 |
|
42 |
55 |
|
54 |
37 |
|
37 |
51 |
|
51 |
32 |
|
31 |
51 |
|
51 |
36 |
|
38 |
54 |
|
54 |
03-23-25 |
37 |
33.6 |
31 |
52 |
48.7 |
53 |
39 |
|
41 |
56 |
|
55 |
35 |
|
39 |
49 |
|
51 |
32 |
|
31 |
49 |
|
51 |
03-22-25 |
32 |
30.7 |
31 |
46 |
58.3 |
51 |
37 |
33.6 |
37 |
48 |
48.7 |
55 |
39 |
|
42 |
53 |
|
55 |
35 |
|
35 |
50 |
|
51 |
03-21-25 |
31 |
31.8 |
38 |
54 |
52.9 |
60 |
34 |
30.7 |
29 |
46 |
58.3 |
51 |
35 |
33.6 |
37 |
53 |
48.7 |
54 |
40 |
|
42 |
53 |
|
55 |
03-20-25 |
41 |
41.0 |
42 |
54 |
49.8 |
52 |
32 |
31.8 |
38 |
54 |
52.9 |
59 |
31 |
30.7 |
29 |
46 |
58.3 |
49 |
38 |
33.6 |
38 |
54 |
48.7 |
56 |
03-19-25 |
39 |
41.2 |
39 |
51 |
67.3 |
60 |
39 |
41.0 |
40 |
48 |
49.8 |
51 |
36 |
31.8 |
38 |
54 |
52.9 |
56 |
32 |
30.7 |
28 |
48 |
58.3 |
48 |
03-18-25 |
32 |
29.1 |
33 |
56 |
60.1 |
58 |
39 |
41.2 |
40 |
53 |
67.3 |
57 |
37 |
41.0 |
42 |
48 |
49.8 |
50 |
35 |
31.8 |
35 |
53 |
52.9 |
55 |
Results |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
# Succ |
3 |
|
2 |
1 |
|
0 |
2 |
|
3 |
3 |
|
1 |
2 |
|
2 |
2 |
|
1 |
1 |
|
0 |
1 |
|
0 |
% Succ |
50.0 |
|
33.3 |
16.7 |
|
0.0 |
40.0 |
|
60.0 |
60.0 |
|
20.0 |
50.0 |
|
50.0 |
50.0 |
|
25.0 |
33.3 |
|
0.0 |
33.3 |
|
0.0 |
Ave Error |
1.8 |
|
2.7 |
6.9 |
|
5.1 |
2.2 |
|
2.7 |
6.0 |
|
6.2 |
2.5 |
|
3.1 |
4.9 |
|
4.5 |
3.0 |
|
3.4 |
5.2 |
|
6.6 |
Net Error |
0.8 |
|
1.1 |
-4.0 |
|
-0.5 |
0.5 |
|
1.1 |
-5.6 |
|
-0.8 |
0.5 |
|
2.2 |
-2.2 |
|
-0.2 |
3.0 |
|
1.6 |
-1.6 |
|
-0.3 |
Std Dev |
1.1 |
|
1.9 |
5.3 |
|
2.0 |
1.2 |
|
1.7 |
4.3 |
|
0.5 |
0.5 |
|
0.2 |
0.3 |
|
0.4 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|