WxSim & NWS Forecast Comparison

National Weather Service (NW), Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)
Morning Forecasts
Updated: 09-27-20 at 6:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
09-27-20 75   80 66   65 76 ↓   78 66   63 75 ↓   75 62 ↑   67 72   72 57   56
09-26-20 73 ↓ 77.2 78 65 59.7 62 75   81 64   62 75 ↓   80 65   64 75   82 62   68
09-25-20 >75 76.1 78 <65 56.5 61 75 77.2 75 <65 59.7 61 75   80 65   64 75   79 >55   66
09-24-20 >75 75.4 78 >55 54.1 61 >75 76.1 78 60 56.5 59 75 77.2 78 <65 59.7 59 >75   79 65   62
09-23-20 >75 80.2 77 <65 49.5 56 75 75.4 77 <65 54.1 58 75 76.1 79 <65 56.5 59 75 77.2 79 <65 59.7 60
09-22-20 45 71.2 47 72 40.6 72 50 80.2 51 78 49.5 76 59 75.4 56 75 54.1 76 63 76.1 60 74 56.5 80
09-21-20 47 39.0 68 65 64.6 47 47 71.2 72 70 40.6 53 56 80.2 76 74 49.5 55 61 75.4 78 75 54.1 63
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 0 2 1 0 1 3 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 1
% Succ     33.3 16.7   0.0 20.0   60.0     20.0 25.0   25.0     25.0     33.3     33.3
Ave Error 45.0   10.3 32.9   11.5 26.6   7.1 35.0   9.3 11.0   6.8 40.4   7.7 9.9   6.8 32.7   10.9
Net Error -42.4   1.2 -20.5   5.7 -26.6   -5.4 -10.5   9.3 -11.0   -5.0 -17.7   7.3 -9.9   -3.9 -7.1   10.9
Std Dev 29.3   8.8 18.5   9.8 27.3   4.1 19.8   5.3 4.4   3.0 9.7   3.5 0.0   0.0 0.0   0.0

Mid-Day Forecasts
Updated: 09-27-20 at 12:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
09-27-20 75   80 66   65 76 ↓   79 66   63 75 ↓   76 62 ↑   67 72   73 57   56
09-26-20 73 ↓ 77.2 77 65 62.6 62 75   81 64   65 75 ↓   78 65   64 75   77 62   67
09-25-20 >75 76.1 78 <65 59.7 62 75 77.2 77 <65 62.6 61 75   81 65   64 75   79 >55   63
09-24-20 >75 75.4 78 >55 56.5 60 >75 76.1 78 60 59.7 58 75 77.2 78 <65 62.6 59 >75   78 65   62
09-23-20 >75 80.2 77 <65 54.1 57 75 75.4 77 <65 56.5 61 75 76.1 80 <65 59.7 59 75 77.2 78 <65 62.6 63
09-22-20 <75 71.2 71 <55 49.5 51 >75 80.2 76 >55 54.1 54 75 75.4 76 <65 56.5 59 75 76.1 80 >55 59.7 59
09-21-20 65 64.6 67 >45 40.6 46 <75 71.2 73 55 49.5 52 75 80.2 76 <65 54.1 56 75 75.4 78 <65 56.5 61
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 1 3 0 2 1 4 1 3 2 2 0 2 2 1 0 2
% Succ 16.7   50.0     33.3 20.0   80.0 20.0   60.0 50.0   50.0     50.0 66.7   33.3     66.7
Ave Error 51.3   1.8 43.8   2.7 46.0   1.9 35.8   2.1 2.2   2.4 58.2   2.2 1.2   2.4 59.6   1.9
Net Error -51.1   0.6 -43.0   2.5 -46.0   0.2 -33.5   0.7 -2.2   0.3 -58.2   0.0 -1.2   2.4 -59.6   1.4
Std Dev 27.8   1.1 19.4   1.1 31.3   0.8 21.9   1.1 0.0   0.8 2.2   0.7 0.0   0.0 0.0   0.0

Evening Forecasts
Updated: 09-27-20 at 6:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
09-27-20 65   65 73   77 63   64 75 ↓   77 64 ↑   66 73 ↓   73 57   58 70   71
09-26-20 62 ↑ 62.6 62 75 77.2 81 65   65 76 ↓   78 64   63 75 ↓   78 62   67 72   74
09-25-20 <65 59.7 58 <75 76.1 74 65 62.6 61 >75 77.2 80 65   62 75   78 65   62 75   80
09-24-20 61 56.5 60 77 ↓ 75.4 77 60 59.7 60 74 ↓ 76.1 79 62 ↑ 62.6 59 77 ↓ 77.2 79 64   66 75   76
09-23-20 >55 54.1 60 >75 80.2 78 <65 56.5 61 75 75.4 79 60 59.7 61 75 76.1 76 <65 62.6 63 >75 77.2 80
09-22-20 53 49.5 52 77 71.2 77 58 54.1 55 76 ↓ 80.2 77 61 56.5 60 76 ↓ 75.4 78 61 59.7 58 75 76.1 80
09-21-20 45 40.6 47 72 ↓ 64.6 72 53 49.5 51 76 71.2 76 61 54.1 56 75 80.2 76 63 56.5 60 74 75.4 80
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 1 2 1 1 1 4 1 0 2 2 3 2 1 2 2 0
% Succ 16.7   33.3 16.7   16.7 20.0   80.0 20.0   0.0 50.0   50.0 75.0   50.0 33.3   66.7 66.7   0.0
Ave Error 21.1   3.4 28.9   3.8 13.3   1.8 17.7   3.5 3.1   2.6 1.8   2.2 23.5   1.9 26.6   3.8
Net Error -17.0   2.7 -24.0   2.4 -9.3   1.1 -15.8   2.2 2.8   0.8 -1.5   0.0 -18.3   0.7 -26.6   3.8
Std Dev 24.4   1.7 33.8   1.5 20.8   1.4 28.6   0.4 1.2   0.5 0.8   0.2 0.0   0.0 0.0   0.0

Nighttime Forecasts
Updated: 09-26-20 at 11:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
09-26-20 62 ↑   60 75   80 65   64 76 ↓   78 64   64 75 ↓   75 62   66 72   74
09-25-20 62 59.7 60 73 76.1 77 64   62 77 ↓   81 64   63 75 ↓   78 65   63 75   77
09-24-20 61 56.5 59 77 ↓ 75.4 78 60 59.7 59 74 ↓ 76.1 79 62 ↑   60 77 ↓   77 64   65 75   77
09-23-20 >55 54.1 56 >75 80.2 77 <65 56.5 60 75 75.4 78 60 59.7 59 75 76.1 78 <65   60 >75   80
09-22-20 55 49.5 53 >75 71.2 77 60 54.1 57 75 80.2 77 <65 56.5 61 75 75.4 78 <65 59.7 58 75 76.1 79
09-21-20 45 40.6 47 72 ↓ 64.6 72 53 49.5 51 76 71.2 76 61 54.1 56 75 80.2 76 63 56.5 60 74 75.4 80
09-20-20 47 39.0 47 65 62.4 67 47 40.6 47 70 64.6 73 56 49.5 53 74 71.2 76 61 54.1 55 75 80.2 77
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 0 2 1 1 1 2 1 0 1 2 2 1 0 2 2 0
% Succ     33.3 16.7   16.7 20.0   40.0 20.0   0.0 25.0   50.0 50.0   25.0     66.7 66.7   0.0
Ave Error 13.1   3.8 27.7   4.1 14.5   3.0 3.6   4.4 17.6   2.7 2.4   3.4 24.4   2.0 2.6   3.6
Net Error -4.9   3.8 -23.8   3.0 -8.1   2.7 0.5   3.1 -10.7   2.3 -1.0   1.3 -15.4   0.9 -2.6   1.4
Std Dev 18.3   2.0 32.5   2.1 20.2   1.1 1.7   1.2 8.6   1.0 0.6   0.7 0.0   0.0 0.0   0.0