WxSim & NWS Forecast Comparison

National Weather Service (NW), Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)
Morning Forecasts
Updated: 11-25-20 at 6:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
11-25-20 55   58 >45   49 60   60 50   47 >55   60 <45   45 55   56 >35   39
11-24-20 >45 49.3 47 35 33.6 36 55   57 50   47 >55   59 >45   48 >55   57 45   46
11-23-20 51 ↑ 58.3 56 58 ↓ 53.8 36 35 49.3 48 47 ↓ 33.6 34 33 ↑   56 54 ↓   47 50   59 59   47
11-22-20 53 55.9 41 52 ↑ 43.0 55 57 ↓ 58.3 49 34 53.8 56 47 ↓ 49.3 35 34 33.6 46 54   32 48   56
11-21-20 >55 43.5 61 40 66.9 39 50 55.9 54 >45 43.0 49 >55 58.3 54 35 53.8 34 >45 49.3 45 35 33.6 30
11-20-20 57 ↓ 58.8 61 46 46.2 44 60 ↓ 43.5 62 39 66.9 40 50 ↓ 55.9 53 47 43.0 49 58 58.3 54 36 53.8 32
11-19-20 21 ↑ 47.1 24 49 ↓ 21.2 49 42 ↑ 58.8 41 58 ↓ 46.2 60 45 ↑ 43.5 46 57 ↓ 66.9 60 43 55.9 38 56 43.0 54
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 1 0 2 0 1 2 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0
% Succ 16.7   0.0 33.3   0.0 20.0   40.0     20.0 25.0   0.0 25.0   0.0 33.3   0.0 33.3   0.0
Ave Error 21.8   10.4 11.6   15.0 11.0   9.8 23.2   9.9 17.0   6.0 8.3   11.3 20.8   8.8 10.7   12.1
Net Error -21.8   -3.8 2.6   -1.0 -4.4   -2.4 -13.1   -0.9 -16.3   -4.8 -6.1   -2.1 -20.8   -8.8 -1.1   -4.8
Std Dev 19.1   6.7 9.4   9.2 5.1   5.2 10.0   5.7 7.4   4.2 3.9   0.6 0.0   0.0 0.0   0.0

Mid-Day Forecasts
Updated: 11-25-20 at 12:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
11-25-20 57 ↓   56 47 ↑   48 59 ↓   59 49   47 60 ↓   57 43   42 54   55 36   35
11-24-20 >45 49.3 47 35 33.3 36 55   56 50   47 >55   59 >45   46 >55   57 45   46
11-23-20 59 ↓ 58.3 52 35 33.6 35 47 ↓ 49.3 48 33 ↑ 33.3 34 54 ↓   57 50   46 59   57 46   46
11-22-20 53 55.9 52 52 ↑ 53.8 48 57 ↓ 58.3 57 34 33.6 34 47 ↓ 49.3 47 34 33.3 32 54   57 48   50
11-21-20 58 ↓ 66.9 66 40 43.0 41 50 ↓ 55.9 54 48 ↑ 53.8 48 58 ↓ 58.3 53 35 ↑ 33.6 34 46 49.3 46 35 33.3 31
11-20-20 57 ↓ 58.8 60 46 43.5 43 60 ↓ 66.9 61 39 43.0 38 50 ↓ 55.9 52 47 53.8 45 58 58.3 53 36 33.6 32
11-19-20 >45 47.1 46 45 46.2 41 >55 58.8 61 45 43.5 45 >55 66.9 62 <45 43.0 36 55 55.9 52 <55 53.8 49
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 2 3 4 3 1 3 3 3 1 0 2 2 2 0 1 1
% Succ 33.3   50.0 66.7   50.0 20.0   60.0 60.0   60.0 25.0   0.0 50.0   50.0 66.7   0.0 33.3   33.3
Ave Error 18.5   2.6 1.9   2.9 15.0   2.5 2.4   2.7 18.9   4.1 13.0   4.4 1.5   4.2 19.3   2.9
Net Error -18.2   -2.2 -0.1   -1.6 -15.0   -1.6 -1.6   -1.6 -18.9   -4.1 -11.9   -4.2 -1.5   -4.2 -16.6   -2.9
Std Dev 17.7   1.8 0.6   1.7 9.3   0.8 2.0   1.9 8.3   0.9 6.1   1.5 0.0   0.0 0.0   0.0

Evening Forecasts
Updated: 11-24-20 at 6:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
11-24-20 35   33 >55   57 50   48 >55   61 >45   46 >55   56 <45   45 55   55
11-23-20 35 33.6 35 46 ↓ 58.3 47 31   35 55 ↓   57 49 ↑   47 59 ↓   58 47   48 57   57
11-22-20 52 53.8 49 48 ↑ 55.9 56 58 ↓ 33.6 34 35 58.3 46 46 ↓   32 33   56 54   50 50   59
11-21-20 <45 43.0 41 <55 66.9 55 >45 53.8 49 >55 55.9 56 35 33.6 35 >45 58.3 46 35   32 55   56
11-20-20 46 43.5 43 61 ↓ 58.8 61 35 43.0 37 50 ↓ 66.9 53 46 ↑ 53.8 50 58 ↓ 55.9 55 35 33.6 36 46 58.3 47
11-19-20 42 ↑ 46.2 43 57 ↓ 47.1 61 46 43.5 45 61 ↓ 58.8 62 41 43.0 36 54 66.9 54 47 53.8 49 58 55.9 53
11-18-20 37 ↓ 21.2 24 25 ↑ 36.0 49 50 ↓ 46.2 41 42 ↑ 47.1 60 57 ↓ 43.5 46 45 ↑ 58.8 60 57 43.0 38 43 66.9 54
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 2 3 0 1 0 2 0 1 2 1 0 2 1 0 0 0
% Succ 33.3   50.0     16.7     40.0     20.0 50.0   25.0     50.0 33.3   0.0     0.0
Ave Error 11.5   2.5 18.4   8.7 18.5   3.6 20.7   8.5 6.2   3.7 21.8   6.8 7.4   4.1 12.8   9.0
Net Error -4.9   -1.1 -14.3   1.0 -6.2   -2.8 -19.8   -2.0 1.3   -1.7 -20.7   -6.2 2.9   -2.5 -11.4   -9.0
Std Dev 14.8   1.4 21.7   5.2 16.7   1.9 15.9   4.8 2.4   1.1 18.3   2.7 0.0   0.0 0.0   0.0

Nighttime Forecasts
Updated: 11-24-20 at 11:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
11-24-20 35   37 >55   57 50   49 >55   61 >45   46 >55   57 <45   46 55   55
11-23-20 59 ↓ 33.6 35 35 58.3 47 47 ↓   35 33 ↑   57 54 ↓   47 50   58 59   48 46   57
11-22-20 51 ↑ 53.8 52 57 ↓ 55.9 57 35 33.6 36 46 ↓ 58.3 46 33   33 54 ↓   56 50   50 59   59
11-21-20 41 43.0 41 53 66.9 55 50 ↑ 53.8 49 58 ↓ 55.9 56 35 33.6 35 47 ↓ 58.3 46 34   32 54   56
11-20-20 46 43.5 44 61 ↓ 58.8 62 35 43.0 38 50 ↓ 66.9 54 46 ↑ 53.8 50 58 ↓ 55.9 55 35 33.6 36 46 58.3 46
11-19-20 42 ↑ 46.2 43 57 ↓ 47.1 60 46 43.5 44 61 ↓ 58.8 62 41 43.0 36 54 66.9 54 47 53.8 49 58 55.9 53
11-18-20 25 ↑ 21.2 24 50 ↓ 36.0 49 42 ↑ 46.2 41 57 ↓ 47.1 60 45 ↑ 43.5 46 57 ↓ 58.8 60 43 43.0 38 56 66.9 54
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 1 4 1 1 1 1 0 1 3 1 1 2 2 0 0 0
% Succ 16.7   66.7 16.7   16.7 20.0   20.0     20.0 75.0   25.0 25.0   50.0 66.7   0.0     0.0
Ave Error 6.8   2.0 10.7   8.9 4.0   3.6 8.7   8.3 3.2   3.7 7.0   6.8 2.7   4.1 8.4   9.4
Net Error 3.8   -0.4 -1.7   1.2 -2.4   -2.4 -3.0   -1.8 -1.7   -1.7 -6.0   -6.2 -1.8   -2.5 -7.0   -9.4
Std Dev 8.3   0.8 7.5   4.5 2.1   1.0 5.0   4.6 0.9   1.1 2.1   2.7 0.0   0.0 0.0   0.0