WxSim & NWS Forecast Comparison
National Weather Service (NW), Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)
Morning Forecasts
| Updated: 10-29-25 at 5:00 am |
| Goal |
Forecast Day |
Day +1 |
Day +2 |
Day +3 |
| ± 2.0° F |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
| Date |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
| 10-29-25 |
46 |
|
58 |
56 |
|
45 |
47 |
|
61 |
63 |
|
49 |
49 |
|
57 |
58 |
|
41 |
44 |
|
59 |
59 |
|
39 |
| 10-28-25 |
38 |
54.0 |
57 |
56 |
35.2 |
43 |
46 |
|
58 |
56 |
|
46 |
49 |
|
61 |
64 |
|
51 |
50 |
|
58 |
59 |
|
44 |
| 10-27-25 |
36 |
57.6 |
58 |
55 |
34.5 |
39 |
39 |
54.0 |
59 |
57 |
35.2 |
43 |
41 |
|
56 |
57 |
|
45 |
47 |
|
63 |
62 |
|
48 |
| 10-26-25 |
40 |
60.8 |
60 |
58 |
40.5 |
38 |
36 |
57.6 |
57 |
54 |
34.5 |
40 |
40 |
54.0 |
55 |
55 |
35.2 |
42 |
44 |
|
57 |
57 |
|
41 |
| 10-25-25 |
40 |
62.6 |
61 |
57 |
34.7 |
42 |
38 |
60.8 |
59 |
56 |
40.5 |
38 |
36 |
57.6 |
55 |
54 |
34.5 |
40 |
40 |
54.0 |
56 |
55 |
35.2 |
43 |
| 10-24-25 |
42 |
62.4 |
62 |
59 |
36.9 |
41 |
40 |
62.6 |
60 |
56 |
34.7 |
41 |
41 |
60.8 |
56 |
55 |
40.5 |
41 |
40 |
57.6 |
57 |
54 |
34.5 |
43 |
| 10-23-25 |
49 |
63.5 |
63 |
60 |
42.1 |
44 |
43 |
62.4 |
62 |
60 |
36.9 |
41 |
42 |
62.6 |
60 |
57 |
34.7 |
41 |
42 |
60.8 |
59 |
56 |
40.5 |
40 |
| Results |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
| # Succ |
0 |
|
5 |
0 |
|
1 |
0 |
|
3 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
|
1 |
0 |
|
1 |
0 |
|
3 |
0 |
|
1 |
| % Succ |
|
|
83.3 |
|
|
16.7 |
|
|
60.0 |
|
|
0.0 |
|
|
25.0 |
|
|
25.0 |
|
|
100.0 |
|
|
33.3 |
| Ave Error |
19.3 |
|
1.1 |
20.2 |
|
4.7 |
20.3 |
|
2.1 |
20.2 |
|
5.2 |
19.0 |
|
2.8 |
19.0 |
|
4.8 |
16.8 |
|
1.5 |
18.3 |
|
5.6 |
| Net Error |
-19.3 |
|
0.0 |
20.2 |
|
3.9 |
-20.3 |
|
-0.1 |
20.2 |
|
4.2 |
-19.0 |
|
-2.3 |
19.0 |
|
4.8 |
-16.8 |
|
-0.1 |
18.3 |
|
5.3 |
| Std Dev |
2.2 |
|
0.9 |
1.6 |
|
1.9 |
2.7 |
|
1.5 |
2.3 |
|
1.7 |
2.5 |
|
0.9 |
0.4 |
|
1.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
|
Mid-Day Forecasts
| Updated: 10-28-25 at 11:00 am |
| Goal |
Forecast Day |
Day +1 |
Day +2 |
Day +3 |
| ± 2.0° F |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
| Date |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
| 10-28-25 |
56 |
|
59 |
46 |
|
44 |
56 |
|
59 |
49 |
|
45 |
64 |
|
60 |
50 |
|
48 |
59 |
|
56 |
45 |
|
42 |
| 10-27-25 |
55 |
57.6 |
62 |
39 |
35.2 |
41 |
57 |
|
59 |
41 |
|
43 |
57 |
|
56 |
47 |
|
44 |
62 |
|
62 |
49 |
|
50 |
| 10-26-25 |
58 |
60.8 |
63 |
36 |
34.5 |
40 |
54 |
57.6 |
58 |
40 |
35.2 |
40 |
55 |
|
57 |
44 |
|
42 |
57 |
|
54 |
46 |
|
41 |
| 10-25-25 |
57 |
62.6 |
64 |
38 |
40.5 |
43 |
56 |
60.8 |
60 |
36 |
34.5 |
37 |
54 |
57.6 |
55 |
40 |
35.2 |
41 |
55 |
|
55 |
43 |
|
43 |
| 10-24-25 |
42 |
62.4 |
65 |
59 |
34.7 |
42 |
40 |
62.6 |
61 |
56 |
40.5 |
40 |
41 |
60.8 |
57 |
55 |
34.5 |
40 |
40 |
57.6 |
56 |
54 |
35.2 |
40 |
| 10-23-25 |
60 |
63.5 |
66 |
43 |
36.9 |
44 |
60 |
62.4 |
62 |
42 |
34.7 |
41 |
57 |
62.6 |
60 |
42 |
40.5 |
42 |
56 |
60.8 |
59 |
41 |
34.5 |
40 |
| 10-22-25 |
56 |
66.6 |
70 |
65 |
42.1 |
47 |
47 |
63.5 |
63 |
61 |
36.9 |
43 |
44 |
62.4 |
61 |
60 |
34.7 |
40 |
43 |
62.6 |
60 |
58 |
40.5 |
40 |
| Results |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
| # Succ |
0 |
|
1 |
1 |
|
0 |
0 |
|
5 |
1 |
|
1 |
0 |
|
1 |
1 |
|
1 |
0 |
|
2 |
0 |
|
1 |
| % Succ |
|
|
16.7 |
16.7 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
100.0 |
20.0 |
|
20.0 |
|
|
25.0 |
25.0 |
|
25.0 |
|
|
66.7 |
|
|
33.3 |
| Ave Error |
7.6 |
|
2.8 |
10.2 |
|
5.5 |
10.0 |
|
0.7 |
10.6 |
|
4.0 |
11.9 |
|
2.6 |
13.0 |
|
4.5 |
14.0 |
|
2.0 |
14.3 |
|
3.6 |
| Net Error |
-7.6 |
|
2.8 |
9.4 |
|
5.5 |
-10.0 |
|
-0.6 |
10.6 |
|
3.8 |
-11.9 |
|
-2.6 |
13.0 |
|
4.5 |
-14.0 |
|
-2.0 |
14.3 |
|
3.3 |
| Std Dev |
6.2 |
|
0.9 |
8.1 |
|
1.6 |
6.7 |
|
0.4 |
5.3 |
|
1.8 |
4.1 |
|
0.0 |
4.1 |
|
0.6 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
|
Evening Forecasts
| Updated: 10-28-25 at 5:00 pm |
| Goal |
Forecast Day |
Day +1 |
Day +2 |
Day +3 |
| ± 2.0° F |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
| Date |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
| 10-28-25 |
56 |
|
43 |
46 |
|
58 |
56 |
|
45 |
46 |
|
60 |
63 |
|
50 |
50 |
|
57 |
60 |
|
43 |
44 |
|
58 |
| 10-27-25 |
55 |
35.2 |
42 |
39 |
57.6 |
59 |
56 |
|
44 |
46 |
|
58 |
56 |
|
46 |
49 |
|
65 |
64 |
|
49 |
49 |
|
58 |
| 10-26-25 |
58 |
34.5 |
40 |
39 |
60.8 |
58 |
54 |
35.2 |
40 |
41 |
57.6 |
56 |
55 |
|
42 |
44 |
|
57 |
56 |
|
44 |
44 |
|
63 |
| 10-25-25 |
58 |
40.5 |
43 |
40 |
62.6 |
60 |
57 |
34.5 |
38 |
37 |
60.8 |
55 |
54 |
35.2 |
39 |
41 |
57.6 |
54 |
55 |
|
42 |
44 |
|
58 |
| 10-24-25 |
41 |
34.7 |
43 |
57 |
62.4 |
61 |
38 |
40.5 |
42 |
56 |
62.6 |
59 |
37 |
34.5 |
38 |
55 |
60.8 |
55 |
43 |
35.2 |
39 |
55 |
57.6 |
55 |
| 10-23-25 |
60 |
36.9 |
45 |
43 |
63.5 |
64 |
60 |
34.7 |
42 |
42 |
62.4 |
60 |
58 |
40.5 |
42 |
42 |
62.6 |
58 |
56 |
34.5 |
41 |
40 |
60.8 |
56 |
| 10-22-25 |
47 |
42.1 |
46 |
60 |
66.6 |
62 |
43 |
36.9 |
43 |
61 |
63.5 |
62 |
43 |
34.7 |
41 |
58 |
62.4 |
59 |
42 |
40.5 |
40 |
56 |
62.6 |
59 |
| Results |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
| # Succ |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
|
3 |
0 |
|
1 |
0 |
|
2 |
0 |
|
1 |
0 |
|
0 |
1 |
|
1 |
0 |
|
0 |
| % Succ |
|
|
0.0 |
|
|
50.0 |
|
|
20.0 |
|
|
40.0 |
|
|
25.0 |
|
|
0.0 |
33.3 |
|
33.3 |
|
|
0.0 |
| Ave Error |
15.9 |
|
5.9 |
15.9 |
|
2.2 |
15.0 |
|
4.6 |
14.0 |
|
3.0 |
11.8 |
|
3.8 |
11.9 |
|
4.4 |
10.3 |
|
3.6 |
10.0 |
|
3.7 |
| Net Error |
15.9 |
|
5.9 |
-15.9 |
|
-1.6 |
14.0 |
|
4.6 |
-14.0 |
|
-3.0 |
11.8 |
|
3.8 |
-11.9 |
|
-4.4 |
10.3 |
|
3.3 |
-10.0 |
|
-3.7 |
| Std Dev |
6.1 |
|
2.0 |
6.0 |
|
0.9 |
6.7 |
|
1.5 |
5.6 |
|
1.4 |
3.5 |
|
0.0 |
2.4 |
|
0.4 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
|
Nighttime Forecasts
| Updated: 10-28-25 at 11:00 pm |
| Goal |
Forecast Day |
Day +1 |
Day +2 |
Day +3 |
| ± 2.0° F |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
| Date |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
| 10-28-25 |
46 |
|
45 |
56 |
|
58 |
46 |
|
45 |
63 |
|
60 |
50 |
|
48 |
60 |
|
56 |
44 |
|
42 |
60 |
|
58 |
| 10-27-25 |
39 |
35.2 |
32 |
56 |
57.6 |
56 |
46 |
|
42 |
56 |
|
57 |
49 |
|
45 |
64 |
|
60 |
49 |
|
49 |
59 |
|
56 |
| 10-26-25 |
39 |
34.5 |
32 |
54 |
60.8 |
56 |
41 |
35.2 |
40 |
55 |
57.6 |
57 |
44 |
|
42 |
56 |
|
56 |
44 |
|
45 |
60 |
|
61 |
| 10-25-25 |
40 |
40.5 |
41 |
57 |
62.6 |
59 |
37 |
34.5 |
37 |
54 |
60.8 |
55 |
41 |
35.2 |
40 |
55 |
57.6 |
55 |
44 |
|
41 |
57 |
|
56 |
| 10-24-25 |
41 |
34.7 |
35 |
57 |
62.4 |
59 |
38 |
40.5 |
42 |
56 |
62.6 |
59 |
37 |
34.5 |
37 |
55 |
60.8 |
55 |
43 |
35.2 |
40 |
55 |
57.6 |
55 |
| 10-23-25 |
43 |
36.9 |
39 |
60 |
63.5 |
60 |
42 |
34.7 |
40 |
58 |
62.4 |
59 |
42 |
40.5 |
40 |
56 |
62.6 |
57 |
40 |
34.5 |
39 |
55 |
60.8 |
55 |
| 10-22-25 |
47 |
42.1 |
43 |
60 |
66.6 |
61 |
43 |
36.9 |
44 |
61 |
63.5 |
62 |
43 |
34.7 |
41 |
58 |
62.4 |
59 |
42 |
40.5 |
41 |
56 |
62.6 |
59 |
| Results |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
| # Succ |
1 |
|
3 |
1 |
|
1 |
0 |
|
1 |
0 |
|
2 |
1 |
|
1 |
0 |
|
0 |
1 |
|
1 |
0 |
|
0 |
| % Succ |
16.7 |
|
50.0 |
16.7 |
|
16.7 |
|
|
20.0 |
|
|
40.0 |
25.0 |
|
25.0 |
|
|
0.0 |
33.3 |
|
33.3 |
|
|
0.0 |
| Ave Error |
4.4 |
|
1.6 |
4.9 |
|
3.8 |
4.8 |
|
4.2 |
4.6 |
|
3.0 |
4.5 |
|
3.5 |
4.9 |
|
4.4 |
4.9 |
|
3.3 |
5.0 |
|
4.0 |
| Net Error |
4.2 |
|
-0.3 |
-4.9 |
|
-3.8 |
3.8 |
|
4.2 |
-4.6 |
|
-3.0 |
4.5 |
|
3.3 |
-4.9 |
|
-4.4 |
4.9 |
|
3.3 |
-5.0 |
|
-4.0 |
| Std Dev |
1.9 |
|
1.0 |
1.7 |
|
1.0 |
1.5 |
|
1.5 |
1.6 |
|
1.7 |
0.6 |
|
0.6 |
1.1 |
|
0.9 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
|