WxSim & NWS Forecast Comparison

National Weather Service (NW), Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)
Morning Forecasts
Updated: 07-11-20 at 6:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
07-11-20 73   86 86 ↓   72 71 ↑   85 89 ↓   73 72   86 86   69 70   86 88   65
07-10-20 78 ↓ 77.5 78 73 73.6 72 87 ↓   89 72 ↑   74 89 ↓   86 73   74 88   87 71   72
07-09-20 73 87.1 89 87 ↓ 72.0 72 72 77.5 79 82 ↓ 73.6 73 72   89 85 ↓   74 72   87 86   74
07-08-20 <75 83.1 88 85 70.7 72 <75 87.1 89 85 72.0 72 <75 77.5 78 <85 73.6 71 <75   87 85   72
07-07-20 66 73.6 80 80 ↓ 66.7 70 70 83.1 85 85 ↓ 70.7 72 70 87.1 88 87 ↓ 72.0 71 73 77.5 81 85 73.6 71
07-06-20 71 93.9 87 87 ↓ 69.6 69 68 73.6 85 83 ↓ 66.7 69 72 83.1 85 86 ↓ 70.7 71 73 87.1 87 88 72.0 72
07-05-20 84 89.2 87 70 66.7 70 88 93.9 90 69 69.6 70 81 73.6 87 70 66.7 70 86 83.1 87 73 70.7 72
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 1 2 1 4 0 3 1 4 0 3 0 2 0 1 0 2
% Succ 16.7   33.3 16.7   66.7     60.0 20.0   80.0     75.0     50.0     33.3     66.7
Ave Error 22.2   3.8 10.7   1.7 23.4   4.1 10.5   0.9 28.3   4.2 26.8   1.8 7.2   2.5 9.9   1.3
Net Error -22.1   0.8 10.5   1.0 -23.4   2.6 10.3   0.7 -24.6   4.2 -10.0   0.0 -5.2   2.4 9.9   -0.4
Std Dev 27.3   2.3 5.6   1.1 29.9   1.8 2.2   0.5 24.6   1.8 23.4   0.4 0.0   0.0 0.0   0.0

Mid-Day Forecasts
Updated: 07-11-20 at 12:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
07-11-20 73   85 86 ↓   70 71 ↑   85 89 ↓   72 72   84 86   69 70   84 88   66
07-10-20 78 ↓ 77.5 80 73 70.9 73 87 ↓   89 72 ↑   73 89 ↓   86 73   74 88   88 71   73
07-09-20 >85 87.1 90 <75 73.6 72 <85 77.5 81 <75 70.9 74 85   89 <75   74 >85   87 <75   74
07-08-20 84 83.1 86 73 72.0 73 87 ↓ 87.1 89 72 ↑ 73.6 71 83 ↓ 77.5 80 72 70.9 72 85   89 72   73
07-07-20 80 ↓ 73.6 79 70 70.7 70 85 ↓ 83.1 86 70 72.0 72 87 ↓ 87.1 88 73 73.6 71 85 77.5 79 73 70.9 71
07-06-20 87 ↓ 93.9 94 68 66.7 70 83 ↓ 73.6 85 72 70.7 72 86 ↓ 83.1 86 73 72.0 72 88 87.1 87 73 73.6 71
07-05-20 84 ↓ 89.2 87 70 69.6 70 88 93.9 90 69 66.7 70 81 73.6 85 70 70.7 71 86 83.1 86 73 72.0 73
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 2 1 4 4 2 1 3 2 1 1 4 3 1 2 2 2
% Succ 33.3   16.7 66.7   66.7 40.0   20.0 60.0   40.0 25.0   25.0 100.0   75.0 33.3   66.7 66.7   66.7
Ave Error 17.8   2.7 13.2   1.5 19.0   4.7 15.6   2.1 4.0   4.4 0.8   1.0 3.8   1.5 1.2   1.2
Net Error -15.2   1.9 -11.6   0.8 -14.4   3.2 -14.2   1.0 3.9   4.4 0.2   -0.3 3.8   1.4 0.8   -0.5
Std Dev 30.6   1.5 26.5   0.9 28.5   1.6 26.2   1.1 0.8   1.0 0.1   0.0 0.0   0.0 0.0   0.0

Evening Forecasts
Updated: 07-11-20 at 6:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
07-11-20 71   69 89   85 72   71 86   84 68   67 85   84 68   64 83   81
07-10-20 78 ↓ 70.9 72 73 77.5 88 87 ↓   73 72 ↑   86 89 ↓   73 73   88 88   70 71   84
07-09-20 >85 73.6 72 <75 87.1 81 <85 70.9 74 <75 77.5 88 85   73 <75   86 >85   74 <75   88
07-08-20 73 72.0 72 87 ↓ 83.1 88 72 73.6 72 82 ↓ 87.1 78 72 70.9 73 85 ↓ 77.5 88 72   74 86   87
07-07-20 80 ↓ 70.7 69 70 73.6 87 85 ↓ 72.0 73 70 83.1 88 87 ↓ 73.6 71 73 87.1 80 85 70.9 72 73 77.5 87
07-06-20 67 66.7 66 77 93.9 85 70 70.7 71 85 ↓ 73.6 86 73 72.0 73 88 ↓ 83.1 88 73 73.6 73 85 87.1 78
07-05-20 84 ↓ 69.6 71 69 89.2 90 91 ↓ 66.7 70 70 93.9 86 82 ↓ 70.7 71 73 73.6 83 86 72.0 71 73 83.1 86
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 2 6 0 1 2 3 0 0 2 2 1 0 1 3 0 0
% Succ 33.3   100.0     16.7 40.0   60.0     0.0 50.0   50.0 25.0   0.0 33.3   100.0     0.0
Ave Error 17.6   1.1 22.7   7.4 22.1   1.9 26.2   9.0 6.7   1.5 6.8   8.0 9.6   0.9 5.6   7.2
Net Error -6.9   -0.3 -21.4   2.4 -7.2   1.2 -21.6   2.2 6.7   0.2 -0.6   4.4 9.2   -0.2 -5.6   1.1
Std Dev 25.5   0.6 29.5   3.0 24.0   0.7 25.5   1.9 2.8   0.3 0.4   1.3 0.0   0.0 0.0   0.0

Nighttime Forecasts
Updated: 07-10-20 at 11:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
07-10-20 73   70 86   87 72   73 89   86 72   73 88   88 70   71 88   86
07-09-20 73 73.6 72 75 87.1 80 74   73 87 ↓   88 72 ↑   74 89 ↓   86 73   74 88   89
07-08-20 73 72.0 72 87 ↓ 83.1 88 72 73.6 73 82 ↓ 87.1 78 72   73 85 ↓   88 72   73 86   87
07-07-20 80 ↓ 70.7 70 70 73.6 86 85 ↓ 72.0 72 70 83.1 88 87 ↓ 73.6 70 73 87.1 79 85   70 73   88
07-06-20 68 66.7 66 77 93.9 83 70 70.7 71 85 ↓ 73.6 86 73 72.0 72 88 ↓ 83.1 87 73 73.6 72 85 87.1 80
07-05-20 69 ↑ 69.6 72 91 ↓ 89.2 89 70 66.7 70 82 ↓ 93.9 85 73 70.7 71 86 ↓ 73.6 85 73 72.0 72 88 83.1 87
07-04-20 67 66.7 66 87 84.7 86 70 69.6 70 87 89.2 89 68 66.7 69 83 93.9 86 70 70.7 72 86 73.6 86
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 5 5 1 2 3 4 0 1 2 2 0 0 3 3 0 0
% Succ 83.3   83.3 16.7   33.3 60.0   80.0     20.0 50.0   50.0     0.0 100.0   100.0     0.0
Ave Error 2.2   1.0 6.8   6.1 3.8   0.9 8.7   7.1 4.5   1.6 10.6   7.8 0.8   1.0 6.5   7.8
Net Error 1.8   -0.2 -4.1   0.1 2.9   0.7 -4.2   -0.2 4.5   -0.3 -1.9   -0.2 -0.1   -0.1 5.1   3.1
Std Dev 3.1   0.8 5.4   4.1 4.5   0.5 2.8   2.7 4.5   1.0 1.8   0.1 0.0   0.0 0.0   0.0