WxSim & NWS Forecast Comparison

National Weather Service (NW), Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)
Morning Forecasts
Updated: 05-17-26 at 5:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
05-17-26 48   83 75   60 56   79 83   59 52   89 88   65 55   89 88   55
05-16-26 50 74.7 75 73 45.0 56 48   82 75   58 55   80 83   59 52   86 89   63
05-15-26 49 70.5 68 80 212.0 47 50 74.7 74 73 45.0 55 48   79 76   54 54   75 83   55
05-14-26 48 -148.0 64 80 212.0 48 49 70.5 67 80 212.0 48 50 74.7 73 72 45.0 53 48   75 75   57
05-13-26 51 -148.0 71 72 212.0 51 48 -148.0 66 81 212.0 48 50 70.5 65 79 212.0 48 49 74.7 73 72 45.0 54
05-12-26 52 -148.0 67 80 212.0 48 52 -148.0 70 73 212.0 51 48 -148.0 69 84 212.0 51 51 70.5 66 83 212.0 50
05-11-26 55 -148.0 67 86 212.0 46 53 -148.0 67 83 212.0 48 52 -148.0 66 72 212.0 50 50 -148.0 71 78 212.0 46
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0
% Succ     16.7     0.0     20.0     0.0     25.0     0.0     33.3     0.0
Ave Error 140.7   144.0 115.0   138.5 128.6   130.2 111.8   132.6 110.3   109.6 107.0   123.8 81.1   75.1 96.7   112.3
Net Error 125.3   143.1 -105.7   -134.8 110.2   128.6 -100.6   -128.6 87.7   106.0 -93.5   -119.8 50.9   70.9 -78.7   -106.3
Std Dev 79.2   96.6 38.9   55.9 73.2   89.3 39.5   58.3 42.8   53.9 40.0   57.9 0.0   0.0 0.0   0.0

Mid-Day Forecasts
Updated: 05-17-26 at 11:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
05-17-26 75   89 56   59 83   78 52   62 88   87 55   65 88   89 54   58
05-16-26 73 74.7 80 48 54.5 58 75   82 55   56 83   75 52   58 89   84 55   61
05-15-26 80 70.5 66 50 45.0 46 72 74.7 74 48 54.5 55 76   79 53   56 82   76 52   56
05-14-26 80 -148.0 64 49 212.0 47 80 70.5 66 50 45.0 48 72 74.7 73 48 54.5 54 75   79 52   58
05-13-26 72 -148.0 67 48 212.0 51 80 -148.0 66 49 212.0 48 80 70.5 67 49 45.0 49 72 74.7 73 48 54.5 54
05-12-26 80 -148.0 64 52 212.0 46 73 -148.0 70 48 212.0 50 84 -148.0 69 51 212.0 48 83 70.5 67 51 45.0 49
05-11-26 86 -148.0 65 52 212.0 43 80 -148.0 66 52 212.0 47 73 -148.0 67 49 212.0 52 78 -148.0 69 51 212.0 47
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1
% Succ 16.7   0.0     16.7     20.0     20.0     25.0     25.0     33.3     33.3
Ave Error 153.5   143.6 109.8   110.9 137.8   130.2 99.7   98.9 116.3   109.3 83.6   82.1 80.4   74.1 57.8   56.5
Net Error 153.0   142.1 -108.1   -109.4 136.8   128.2 -97.7   -97.5 115.0   106.7 -81.6   -80.1 78.6   70.6 -53.8   -53.8
Std Dev 99.4   93.9 70.6   73.1 92.6   89.0 65.8   68.0 56.8   53.8 38.6   40.8 0.0   0.0 0.0   0.0

Evening Forecasts
Updated: 05-16-26 at 5:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
05-16-26 73   59 48   84 75   59 56   76 82   58 52   85 88   63 55   86
05-15-26 80 45.0 50 50 70.5 75 72   55 48   81 76   57 53   76 82   56 52   85
05-14-26 80 212.0 46 49 -148.0 68 79 45.0 49 51 70.5 74 72   54 48   79 75   56 53   77
05-13-26 72 212.0 50 48 -148.0 65 80 212.0 49 49 -148.0 67 80 45.0 48 49 70.5 72 72   54 49   75
05-12-26 81 212.0 46 51 -148.0 70 73 212.0 51 48 -148.0 68 83 212.0 49 51 -148.0 65 82 45.0 49 50 70.5 73
05-11-26 86 212.0 42 52 -148.0 67 80 212.0 47 52 -148.0 69 73 212.0 51 49 -148.0 70 82 212.0 50 51 -148.0 66
05-10-26 78 212.0 44 51 52.5 66 89 212.0 43 54 -148.0 66 85 212.0 47 52 -148.0 65 72 212.0 51 51 -148.0 71
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
% Succ     0.0 16.7   0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     25.0     0.0     0.0
Ave Error 116.3   139.5 135.7   146.7 112.0   132.4 162.9   173.1 107.5   123.0 154.4   161.4 102.3   109.0 139.5   145.2
Net Error -104.7   -137.8 128.3   146.7 -98.4   -130.8 155.1   173.1 -90.0   -121.5 143.6   161.4 -77.7   -106.3 125.8   145.2
Std Dev 35.9   59.1 69.3   80.8 38.0   60.4 67.6   80.4 36.3   60.0 66.4   79.9 0.0   0.0 0.0   0.0

Nighttime Forecasts
Updated: 05-16-26 at 11:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
05-16-26 48   58 75   83 56   59 82   78 52   59 88   88 55   64 88   89
05-15-26 50 45.0 47 72 70.5 74 48   55 76   81 53   59 82   76 52   57 87   84
05-14-26 49 212.0 47 79 -148.0 68 51 45.0 47 72 70.5 74 48   54 75   80 53   54 82   74
05-13-26 48 212.0 48 80 -148.0 63 49 212.0 49 80 -148.0 66 49 45.0 49 72 70.5 72 49   54 73   77
05-12-26 51 212.0 47 73 -148.0 71 48 212.0 51 83 -148.0 66 51 212.0 48 82 -148.0 65 50 45.0 49 74 70.5 73
05-11-26 52 212.0 44 80 -148.0 67 52 212.0 47 73 -148.0 70 49 212.0 51 82 -148.0 69 51 212.0 51 82 -148.0 67
05-10-26 51 212.0 46 89 52.5 66 54 212.0 45 85 -148.0 67 52 212.0 47 72 -148.0 67 51 212.0 50 74 -148.0 70
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0
% Succ     16.7 16.7   0.0     20.0 20.0   0.0     0.0 25.0   25.0     0.0     0.0
Ave Error 135.7   138.3 157.0   146.3 130.2   131.6 182.9   172.9 122.0   123.5 170.4   161.6 109.0   109.0 151.8   145.2
Net Error -134.0   -137.7 157.0   146.3 -127.8   -130.8 182.9   172.9 -120.0   -121.5 170.4   161.6 -105.7   -106.3 151.8   145.2
Std Dev 57.5   59.9 84.9   81.1 59.4   61.1 86.3   80.1 59.0   59.8 84.4   80.1 0.0   0.0 0.0   0.0