WxSim & NWS Forecast Comparison

National Weather Service (NW), Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)
Morning Forecasts
Updated: 10-20-17 at 6:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
10-20-17 71 ↓   73 50   50 74   76 53   52 71   74 56   56 74   75 60   62
10-19-17 69 ↓ 67.6 72 47 ↑ 50.2 53 72 ↓   72 52   50 70   75 51   50 68   74 51   60
10-18-17 69 ↓ 72.9 70 47 ↑ 44.2 49 72 ↓ 67.6 70 52 50.2 52 70   69 51   47 68   69 51   51
10-17-17 57 ↓ 61.0 61 43 39.7 46 69 ↓ 72.9 70 51 44.2 49 70 67.6 70 53 50.2 50 70   69 52   45
10-16-17 60 ↓ 67.8 62 40 60.3 40 58 ↓ 61.0 61 41 39.7 45 68 72.9 68 50 44.2 49 69 67.6 69 53 50.2 50
10-15-17 74 69.6 73 56 60.8 58 63 67.8 63 41 60.3 40 58 61.0 60 47 39.7 46 68 72.9 68 53 44.2 51
10-14-17 69 69.8 75 64 59.4 61 75 69.6 76 56 60.8 58 63 67.8 64 40 60.3 42 59 61.0 60 47 39.7 48
10-13-17 66 ↓ 66.6 68 58 ↑ 48.4 58 73 ↓ 69.8 75 62 ↑ 59.4 61 77 ↓ 69.6 77 58 ↑ 60.8 54 63 67.8 62 41 60.3 40
10-12-17 64 ↓ 64.2 63 51 ↑ 55.6 48 67 ↓ 66.6 66 58 ↑ 48.4 56 72 ↓ 69.8 74 64 59.4 62 77 69.6 76 59 60.8 51
10-11-17 57 ↑ 76.1 76 71 ↓ 57.9 55 53 ↑ 64.2 64 64 55.6 49 47 66.6 64 66 48.4 55 58 69.8 69 73 59.4 60
10-10-17 78 ↓ 80.8 82 59 ↑ 64.0 60 71 ↓ 76.1 76 54 ↑ 57.9 55 65 ↓ 64.2 66 52 55.6 50 67 66.6 67 58 48.4 57
10-09-17 76 72.3 74 63 ↑ 70.2 65 79 80.8 81 61 64.0 60 70 76.1 71 54 57.9 55 63 64.2 64 53 55.6 57
10-08-17 75 ↓ 71.8 73 68 ↑ 69.1 67 74 ↓ 72.3 74 67 ↑ 70.2 65 79 80.8 81 57 ↑ 64.0 59 70 76.1 74 54 57.9 56
10-07-17 77 ↓ 76.8 75 67 65.5 64 75 ↓ 71.8 73 66 ↑ 69.1 66 72 72.3 73 67 ↑ 70.2 66 77 80.8 78 61 64.0 59
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 5 8 2 2 3 7 2 2 3 4 0 1 4 5 1 4
% Succ 38.5   61.5 15.4   15.4 25.0   58.3 16.7   16.7 27.3   36.4     9.1 40.0   50.0 10.0   40.0
Ave Error 4.0   2.3 6.2   5.5 4.0   2.1 5.7   5.5 4.8   3.1 7.2   5.8 4.4   2.6 7.3   6.3
Net Error -2.0   0.5 -0.9   -1.6 -1.0   0.7 -0.6   -2.0 -2.5   -0.1 -0.2   -2.1 -2.5   -0.9 1.2   -1.2
Std Dev 4.7   1.8 5.0   4.7 2.5   2.1 4.7   4.7 4.8   1.7 5.6   4.3 2.8   1.9 4.9   5.3

Mid-Day Forecasts
Updated: 10-20-17 at 11:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
10-20-17 71 ↓   71 50   49 74   75 53   51 71   74 56   56 74   73 60   62
10-19-17 72 ↓ 67.6 70 52 49.8 53 72 ↓   71 53   49 77 ↓   75 55   51 75   74 54   57
10-18-17 69 ↓ 72.9 70 47 ↑ 50.2 50 72 ↓ 67.6 69 52 49.8 52 70   70 51   47 68   70 51   51
10-17-17 57 ↓ 61.0 59 43 44.2 44 69 ↓ 72.9 69 51 50.2 48 70 67.6 69 53 49.8 50 70   69 52   46
10-16-17 60 ↓ 67.8 63 40 39.7 38 58 ↓ 61.0 60 41 44.2 44 68 72.9 68 50 50.2 49 69 67.6 69 53 49.8 51
10-15-17 74 69.6 73 56 60.3 58 63 67.8 64 41 39.7 42 58 61.0 61 47 44.2 46 68 72.9 67 53 50.2 50
10-14-17 69 69.8 74 64 60.8 61 75 69.6 76 56 60.3 56 63 67.8 65 40 39.7 41 59 61.0 61 47 44.2 47
10-13-17 66 ↓ 66.6 69 58 ↑ 59.4 57 73 ↓ 69.8 73 62 ↑ 60.8 60 77 ↓ 69.6 76 58 ↑ 60.3 55 63 67.8 61 41 39.7 42
10-12-17 64 ↓ 64.2 64 51 ↑ 48.4 49 67 ↓ 66.6 67 58 ↑ 59.4 54 72 ↓ 69.8 75 64 60.8 63 77 69.6 75 59 60.3 48
10-11-17 57 ↑ 76.1 75 71 ↓ 55.6 56 53 ↑ 64.2 65 64 48.4 49 47 66.6 65 66 59.4 55 58 69.8 76 73 60.8 57
10-10-17 78 ↓ 80.8 80 59 ↑ 57.9 58 71 ↓ 76.1 75 54 ↑ 55.6 54 65 ↓ 64.2 63 52 48.4 50 67 66.6 66 58 59.4 55
10-09-17 76 72.3 75 63 ↑ 64.0 65 79 80.8 80 61 57.9 59 70 76.1 72 54 55.6 59 63 64.2 69 53 48.4 58
10-08-17 75 ↓ 71.8 74 68 ↑ 70.2 67 74 ↓ 72.3 73 67 ↑ 64.0 64 79 80.8 79 57 ↑ 57.9 58 70 76.1 71 54 55.6 55
10-07-17 77 ↓ 76.8 79 67 69.1 64 75 ↓ 71.8 74 66 ↑ 70.2 67 72 72.3 73 67 ↑ 64.0 66 77 80.8 79 61 57.9 59
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 4 4 5 8 3 7 5 6 3 6 4 7 4 4 4 4
% Succ 30.8   30.8 38.5   61.5 25.0   58.3 41.7   50.0 27.3   54.5 36.4   63.6 40.0   40.0 40.0   40.0
Ave Error 4.2   2.4 3.1   1.6 4.0   2.1 3.5   2.0 4.8   2.7 2.5   2.1 4.4   3.8 3.4   3.8
Net Error -1.8   0.6 0.7   -0.7 -1.0   0.4 1.0   -1.0 -2.5   -0.2 1.6   0.2 -2.5   -0.2 2.6   -0.4
Std Dev 4.6   1.2 3.7   1.1 2.5   1.7 3.8   1.4 4.8   1.8 1.6   1.4 2.8   2.0 2.9   3.1

Evening Forecasts
Updated: 10-19-17 at 6:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
10-19-17 52 ↑   53 71 ↓   70 51   50 76   74 52   52 74   73 56   55 74   74
10-18-17 69 ↓ 50.2 51 47 ↑ 72.9 70 72 ↓   52 52   71 70   50 51   74 68   51 51   72
10-17-17 43 ↑ 44.2 45 68 ↓ 61.0 69 51 ↑ 50.2 48 71 ↓ 72.9 69 50 ↑   50 69   69 52   46 69   69
10-16-17 41 ↑ 39.7 37 58 ↓ 67.8 60 42 44.2 45 68 61.0 69 52 50.2 48 69 72.9 69 53   50 69   70
10-15-17 58 ↑ 60.3 58 61 ↓ 69.6 61 38 ↑ 39.7 41 59 67.8 60 42 44.2 46 68 61.0 67 50 50.2 49 70 72.9 69
10-14-17 60 ↑ 60.8 59 74 ↓ 69.8 74 56 ↑ 60.3 60 64 69.6 66 41 39.7 41 58 67.8 61 44 44.2 46 68 61.0 68
10-13-17 57 59.4 57 68 66.6 67 62 60.8 62 76 ↓ 69.8 74 55 ↑ 60.3 52 63 69.6 61 40 39.7 40 59 67.8 59
10-12-17 49 48.4 49 66 64.2 66 58 59.4 55 74 ↓ 66.6 75 61 ↑ 60.8 63 78 ↓ 69.8 77 58 60.3 51 66 69.6 62
10-11-17 56 ↑ 55.6 54 65 ↓ 76.1 64 46 ↑ 48.4 50 66 ↓ 64.2 65 58 59.4 59 73 66.6 72 63 60.8 59 77 69.8 76
10-10-17 57 ↑ 57.9 59 71 ↓ 80.8 75 53 ↑ 55.6 53 64 76.1 63 47 48.4 50 66 64.2 66 58 59.4 57 73 66.6 76
10-09-17 64 64.0 64 79 72.3 80 57 ↑ 57.9 58 70 80.8 73 56 55.6 51 65 76.1 64 52 48.4 49 68 64.2 67
10-08-17 69 ↑ 70.2 66 74 71.8 73 64 ↑ 64.0 62 80 72.3 79 56 57.9 59 70 80.8 68 54 55.6 56 64 76.1 63
10-07-17 66 ↑ 69.1 64 75 ↓ 76.8 73 66 ↑ 70.2 67 72 71.8 74 67 64.0 64 79 72.3 80 60 57.9 58 71 80.8 72
10-06-17 62 65.5 61 79 82.2 76 65 69.1 63 75 76.8 73 67 ↑ 70.2 65 71 71.8 72 66 64.0 64 76 72.3 78
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 8 7 3 3 6 7 4 1 7 6 2 2 6 8 0 0
% Succ 61.5   53.8 23.1   23.1 50.0   58.3 33.3   8.3 63.6   54.5 18.2   18.2 60.0   80.0     0.0
Ave Error 2.8   2.1 7.2   5.4 2.2   2.2 5.9   5.9 2.0   2.6 6.6   6.6 1.6   1.8 6.5   7.3
Net Error 0.4   -1.6 -3.6   -1.8 -1.8   -1.3 -0.9   -0.8 -0.8   -1.2 -1.2   -1.4 0.5   -1.2 -0.9   -1.1
Std Dev 4.7   1.4 6.2   3.3 1.1   1.2 3.0   3.0 1.3   2.0 2.4   2.5 0.8   2.4 1.7   1.4

Nighttime Forecasts
Updated: 10-19-17 at 11:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
10-19-17 52 ↑   54 71 ↓   72 51   50 76   75 52   53 74   74 56   58 74   75
10-18-17 69 ↓ 50.2 51 47 ↑ 72.9 69 72 ↓   52 52   71 70   50 51   74 68   51 51   74
10-17-17 43 ↑ 44.2 43 68 ↓ 61.0 70 51 ↑ 50.2 49 71 ↓ 72.9 70 50 ↑   51 69   69 52   46 69   69
10-16-17 41 ↑ 39.7 39 58 ↓ 67.8 61 42 44.2 45 68 61.0 69 52 50.2 48 69 72.9 69 53   50 69   70
10-15-17 58 ↑ 60.3 60 61 ↓ 69.6 63 38 ↑ 39.7 41 59 67.8 60 42 44.2 45 68 61.0 67 50 50.2 50 70 72.9 69
10-14-17 62 60.8 59 74 ↓ 69.8 73 56 ↑ 60.3 59 64 69.6 64 41 39.7 40 58 67.8 61 44 44.2 46 68 61.0 69
10-13-17 57 59.4 58 68 66.6 66 62 60.8 61 76 ↓ 69.8 75 55 ↑ 60.3 52 63 69.6 61 40 39.7 41 59 67.8 61
10-12-17 49 48.4 51 66 64.2 67 58 59.4 56 74 ↓ 66.6 75 61 ↑ 60.8 60 78 ↓ 69.8 77 58 60.3 53 66 69.6 62
10-11-17 58 ↑ 55.6 54 65 ↓ 76.1 65 46 ↑ 48.4 51 66 ↓ 64.2 66 58 59.4 57 73 66.6 76 63 60.8 62 77 69.8 76
10-10-17 57 ↑ 57.9 58 71 ↓ 80.8 76 53 ↑ 55.6 56 64 76.1 64 47 48.4 51 66 64.2 65 58 59.4 54 73 66.6 72
10-09-17 66 ↑ 64.0 65 79 72.3 79 57 ↑ 57.9 60 70 80.8 75 56 55.6 59 65 76.1 68 52 48.4 54 68 64.2 70
10-08-17 69 ↑ 70.2 68 74 71.8 74 64 ↑ 64.0 66 80 72.3 79 56 57.9 59 70 80.8 70 54 55.6 55 64 76.1 61
10-07-17 66 ↑ 69.1 66 75 ↓ 76.8 74 66 ↑ 70.2 67 72 71.8 74 67 64.0 64 79 72.3 81 60 57.9 58 71 80.8 71
10-06-17 62 65.5 62 79 82.2 77 65 69.1 64 75 76.8 73 67 ↑ 70.2 66 71 71.8 71 66 64.0 66 76 72.3 80
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 7 9 3 1 6 7 4 1 7 5 2 2 6 7 0 0
% Succ 53.8   69.2 23.1   7.7 50.0   58.3 33.3   8.3 63.6   45.5 18.2   18.2 60.0   70.0     0.0
Ave Error 3.1   1.6 7.2   5.1 2.2   2.0 5.9   5.9 2.0   2.4 6.6   6.5 1.6   2.6 6.5   7.6
Net Error 0.9   -0.9 -3.6   -1.4 -1.8   -0.4 -0.9   -0.5 -0.8   -0.9 -1.2   -0.6 0.5   -0.2 -0.9   -1.0
Std Dev 4.6   0.9 6.2   2.8 1.1   1.0 3.0   2.6 1.3   2.0 2.4   2.2 0.8   2.0 1.7   1.5